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Are the expert predictions right on these three Cardinals players?
Nolan Arenado
LAST THREE YEARS
YEAR | HR | R | RBI | AVE | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 34 | 81 | 105 | .255 | .312 | .494 |
2022 | 30 | 73 | 103 | .293 | .358 | .533 |
2023 | 26 | 71 | 93 | .266 | .315 | .459 |
WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY
2024 | HR | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FG | 26 | 77 | 98 | .263 | .323 | .452 |
STEAMER | 28 | 83 | 99 | .263 | .323 | .466 |
ZIPS | 18 | 55 | 76 | .264 | .322 | .438 |
FORECAST USING THE TRENDS OF THE LAST THREE YEARS.
TREND | HR | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 22 | 65 | 88 | .282 | .331 | .460 |
Called strikes were 16.3, 15.5, and 16.7. Even though that is higher than his career average of 14.6, Arenado is still quite consistent. Swings at pitches outside the zone are also consistent at 33%, 36%, and 36%.
Contact percentages registered 83%, 82%, and 81 percent. His swinging strike percentages aren’t any more or less either. The last three years were 49%,48%, and 48%. His pull percentages were 50%, 48%, and 50%. His hard-hit rate was consistent, but the ground ball had a one-year increase last year. One stat that jumped out that may explain that is the launch angle reached 20 degrees and 21 degrees in 2021 and 2022. In 2023, his LA dipped to 16 degrees. 50%, 48%, and 50% are his pull rates.
XwOBA - .311, .330, and .321 are the numbers from the last three years. The statistical forecast for 2024 based on the last three years is .333.
WRC+ - 112, 150, and 107 in the past three years. The forecast for 2024 based on the last three years is 118. The experts slot him at 106 to 112
Summary
I find no reason for Arenado to have the season being predicted. He is still seeing the ball and getting his bat on the balls he swings at. He is still getting around on the ball and his production is still very high. This differs from Goldschmidt because of no prolonged downward trend. What we get from Arenado is a one-year aberration.
I think you should be able to take the high numbers from each prediction and that should be where he ends the season. 28 HRs, 83 Runs, 99 RBIs, .282 average and .466 slug. Sounds about right.
CONCLUSION: EXPERTS’ PROJECTION IS TOO LOW