Are the expert predictions right on these three Cardinals players?

What should we make of the expert predictions?

St. Louis Cardinals v Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals v Milwaukee Brewers / John Fisher/GettyImages
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Nolan Arenado 

LAST THREE YEARS

YEAR

HR

R

RBI

AVE

OBP

SLG

2021

34

81

105

.255

.312

.494

2022

30

73

103

.293

.358

.533

2023

26

71

93

.266

.315

.459

WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY

2024

HR

R

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

FG

26

77

98

.263

.323

.452

STEAMER

28

83

99

.263

.323

.466

ZIPS

18

55

76

.264

.322

.438

FORECAST USING THE TRENDS OF THE LAST THREE YEARS.

TREND

HR

R

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

2024

22

65

88

.282

.331

.460

Called strikes were 16.3, 15.5, and 16.7. Even though that is higher than his career average of 14.6, Arenado is still quite consistent. Swings at pitches outside the zone are also consistent at 33%, 36%, and 36%. 

Contact percentages registered 83%, 82%, and 81 percent. His swinging strike percentages aren’t any more or less either. The last three years were 49%,48%, and 48%. His pull percentages were 50%, 48%, and 50%. His hard-hit rate was consistent, but the ground ball had a one-year increase last year. One stat that jumped out that may explain that is the launch angle reached 20 degrees and 21 degrees in 2021 and 2022. In 2023, his LA dipped to 16 degrees. 50%, 48%, and 50% are his pull rates.  

XwOBA - .311, .330, and .321 are the numbers from the last three years. The statistical forecast for 2024 based on the last three years is .333.

WRC+ - 112, 150, and 107 in the past three years. The forecast for 2024 based on the last three years is 118. The experts slot him at 106 to 112 

Summary

I find no reason for Arenado to have the season being predicted. He is still seeing the ball and getting his bat on the balls he swings at. He is still getting around on the ball and his production is still very high. This differs from Goldschmidt because of no prolonged downward trend. What we get from Arenado is a one-year aberration.

I think you should be able to take the high numbers from each prediction and that should be where he ends the season. 28 HRs, 83 Runs, 99 RBIs, .282 average and .466 slug. Sounds about right.

CONCLUSION: EXPERTS’ PROJECTION IS TOO LOW