Analyzing the Cardinals 3 potential paths: aggressive, passive, or stuck in between

The St. Louis Cardinals began the offseason as the most active team in baseball, but now with names like Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, other competitors are catching up, or surpassing, their level of aggression.

The Dodgers still want to add starting pitching after signing Ohtani to a record deal. The Yankees are in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and so are most of the contenders in baseball. The Braves continue to dominate the trade market. The Giants are shopping for a star. The Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Mariners, Cubs, Padres, Reds, and Diamondbacks are all hoping to improve in various ways as well.

Where the Cardinals go from here remains one of the most fascinating questions in all of baseball. Their swift moves so far have raised their floor significantly, helping them get back into playoff contention for 2024. But both locally and nationally, there is a desire to see John Mozeliak and the Cardinals' front office push the envelope just a little bit more.

Even after making three free-agent signings and trading Tyler O'Neill, the Cardinals have plenty of cash to work with. Their current payroll sits at around $171 million, which is under their 2023 Opening Day payroll, and they came into the offseason expecting it to push closer to $200 million. This leaves the Cardinals with somewhere between $26m-$29m to spend. Jason Hill of Viva El Birdos posted a helpful visual of this recently on Twitter/X.

So, what path do the Cardinals take this offseason? I believe there are three distinct paths that they could follow from here on out, and each would put them in a very different position heading into the 2024 season. One path is preferred, one path is understandable, and the other is, at best, passable. With so much offseason left, the Cardinals have plenty of time to make impactful moves, the question remains, which moves will they look to make?

Here are the three different paths the Cardinals' front office is likely weighing right now and what each path means for the rest of their offseason and chances in 2024.

Remain aggressive

I understand that the Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signings were far from splashy. The Tyler O'Neill trade was expected and did not move the needle much. Sonny Gray was an excellent signing, but again, it's far from a major bite at the apple. Still, to this point, they've been one of the most aggressive teams in baseball.

If the Cardinals want to do more than just get themselves out of the mess they found themselves in during 2023, they'll need to continue to press on the gas this offseason to go from a fringe playoff team to a true contender.

The most obvious way they can truly make a statement this offseason is by adding another front-line starter. Pairing Sonny Gray up with another pitcher of his caliber or better would give the Cardinals the formidable 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation that the best teams in baseball have.

The trade market seems to be the clearest way for St. Louis to do that. Dylan Cease is expected to be dealt by the White Sox, and with them facing a long rebuild, creating a package of prospects could get their attention and bring the strikeout machine to the Cardinals.

Speaking of a strikeout machine, Tyler Glasnow has some of the best stuff in baseball and could be had from the Rays for far less than what Cease will require on the trade market due to his $25 million salary and injury history. Yes, there are a lot of risks built-in with Glasnow, but the price would be much easier to shallow and he raises the ceiling of the Cardinals significantly.

Frankly, a run at Yoshinobu Yamamoto would still be the wisest path of all. Yes, his rumored contract number continues to balloon, but he's a 25-year-old ace sitting on the free-agent market, something that rarely ever happens. Yamamoto would give the Cardinals a true number one starter for years and years to come, and only require money to acquire him.

There are so many ways they could continue to look to improve this ballclub and get into true contender status, something I talked about with site contributors Sandy McMillian and Andrew Wang, as well as Locked On Cardinals' J.D. Hefron on the latest episode of the "Noot News Podcast" (29:00 min mark).

Adding another front-end starter and then shoring up the bullpen the best they can with the resources they have left would vault the Cardinals from a mid-80s win team to a club that should win 90+ games and can match up with pretty much anyone in October. It's far from a pipe dream that the Cardinals can pull this off, but will the front office and ownership continue to press the gas with the uncertainty of their TV rights deal?

Stand pat

I've seen this thrown out a lot on social media, and honestly, it feels like an overreaction. Remember when the Cardinals signed Lynn and Gibson and people thought they weren't going to make a significant move? A week later they signed Sonny Gray.

It's not even the middle of December yet and most teams in baseball still have a ton of work to do on their rosters. Sure, the Cardinals could be done with their moves, but they still have plenty of time to further improve the roster.

Let's explore this scenario though, because even though I find it extremely unlikely, it's possible. The Cardinals have added three starting pitchers (Gray, Gibson, and Lynn), two relievers who will likely factor into their bullpen (Ryan Fernandez and Nick Robertson), and helped clear some of their outfield log-jam by trading O'Neill. In theory, they've done everything they hoped to do entering this offseason, so everything else they could do is more of a "want" in their eyes.

Even if they are thinking like that, I still believe that's more likely to lead them toward more aggressive moves, but sure, it could lead them to stand pat as well. They would enter the season with over $20 million in salary flexibility to add significant pieces at the trade deadline based on the needs that arise during the season. They can let their pitching show its true colors in the first half and then decide to add the right pieces to that mix in July. They can see how their outfield pieces play and still have significant bats and prospects they could move for a bigger piece.

It really wouldn't be a shock to see the Cardinals be done with their moves for now and come back to the table later, but if they did so, it would be very disappointing. They've done enough to make themselves a fringe playoff team and still have so much money and assets to improve further, it would feel like a huge missed opportunity if they decide to stay as they are.