Analyzing the Cardinals 3 potential paths: aggressive, passive, or stuck in between

The St. Louis Cardinals began the offseason as the most active team in baseball, but now with names like Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, other competitors are catching up, or surpassing, their level of aggression.

The Dodgers still want to add starting pitching after signing Ohtani to a record deal. The Yankees are in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and so are most of the contenders in baseball. The Braves continue to dominate the trade market. The Giants are shopping for a star. The Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Mariners, Cubs, Padres, Reds, and Diamondbacks are all hoping to improve in various ways as well.

Where the Cardinals go from here remains one of the most fascinating questions in all of baseball. Their swift moves so far have raised their floor significantly, helping them get back into playoff contention for 2024. But both locally and nationally, there is a desire to see John Mozeliak and the Cardinals' front office push the envelope just a little bit more.

Even after making three free-agent signings and trading Tyler O'Neill, the Cardinals have plenty of cash to work with. Their current payroll sits at around $171 million, which is under their 2023 Opening Day payroll, and they came into the offseason expecting it to push closer to $200 million. This leaves the Cardinals with somewhere between $26m-$29m to spend. Jason Hill of Viva El Birdos posted a helpful visual of this recently on Twitter/X.

So, what path do the Cardinals take this offseason? I believe there are three distinct paths that they could follow from here on out, and each would put them in a very different position heading into the 2024 season. One path is preferred, one path is understandable, and the other is, at best, passable. With so much offseason left, the Cardinals have plenty of time to make impactful moves, the question remains, which moves will they look to make?

Here are the three different paths the Cardinals' front office is likely weighing right now and what each path means for the rest of their offseason and chances in 2024.

Remain aggressive

I understand that the Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signings were far from splashy. The Tyler O'Neill trade was expected and did not move the needle much. Sonny Gray was an excellent signing, but again, it's far from a major bite at the apple. Still, to this point, they've been one of the most aggressive teams in baseball.

If the Cardinals want to do more than just get themselves out of the mess they found themselves in during 2023, they'll need to continue to press on the gas this offseason to go from a fringe playoff team to a true contender.

The most obvious way they can truly make a statement this offseason is by adding another front-line starter. Pairing Sonny Gray up with another pitcher of his caliber or better would give the Cardinals the formidable 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation that the best teams in baseball have.

The trade market seems to be the clearest way for St. Louis to do that. Dylan Cease is expected to be dealt by the White Sox, and with them facing a long rebuild, creating a package of prospects could get their attention and bring the strikeout machine to the Cardinals.

Speaking of a strikeout machine, Tyler Glasnow has some of the best stuff in baseball and could be had from the Rays for far less than what Cease will require on the trade market due to his $25 million salary and injury history. Yes, there are a lot of risks built-in with Glasnow, but the price would be much easier to shallow and he raises the ceiling of the Cardinals significantly.

Frankly, a run at Yoshinobu Yamamoto would still be the wisest path of all. Yes, his rumored contract number continues to balloon, but he's a 25-year-old ace sitting on the free-agent market, something that rarely ever happens. Yamamoto would give the Cardinals a true number one starter for years and years to come, and only require money to acquire him.

There are so many ways they could continue to look to improve this ballclub and get into true contender status, something I talked about with site contributors Sandy McMillian and Andrew Wang, as well as Locked On Cardinals' J.D. Hefron on the latest episode of the "Noot News Podcast" (29:00 min mark).

Adding another front-end starter and then shoring up the bullpen the best they can with the resources they have left would vault the Cardinals from a mid-80s win team to a club that should win 90+ games and can match up with pretty much anyone in October. It's far from a pipe dream that the Cardinals can pull this off, but will the front office and ownership continue to press the gas with the uncertainty of their TV rights deal?

Add significant bullpen pieces, pause on other moves

While the Cardinals may end up ending their pursuit of more starting pitching this offseason or could be outbid on both the free agent and trade market, it would still make a lot of sense for them to make significant bullpen additions.

The Cardinals really need another high-leverage arm they can rely on late in games, especially one who is right-handed. Phil Maton, Jordan Hicks, and Hector Neris are three relievers who have been linked to the Cardinals that could fill that role, and none of them would break the bank like Josh Hader would. Hicks will likely require a multi-year deal at or north of $10 million a season, but that's not a bad number to pay in today's game. Maton and Neris have been significant parts of the Astros' bullpen recently and would bring a ton of leadership and experience to the Cardinals' relief core.

Another right-handed pitcher to watch is Korean closer Woo-suk Go, who the Cardinals have reportedly shown interest in and has been a strikeout machine in the KBO in recent years.

Another player coming over from Asia this winter, Japanese closer Yuki Matsui is another name that the Cardinals have shown interest in, and although he's a left-handed reliever, he'd still be an excellent pickup to add to an interesting group of Cardinals' arms.

If the Cardinals wanted to be aggressive with their bullpen additions, they could add one of Hicks, Maton, Neris, or Matsui, and then pursue Go or another lower-end bullpen piece to give themselves plenty of options entering spring training.

While I really want them to add another starting pitcher, it's easy to see how their current staff would take a step forward with just an infusion of talent in the bullpen. The Cardinals already solved their biggest issue from 2023, starters giving them non-competitive outings. Now that they can expect so many more quality starts from their rotation, the bullpen should not be as taxed as it was during the season.

Still, injuries, down seasons, and rest days will complicate the Cardinals' bullpen all season long, so having a variety of guys they can rely on day in and day out would go a long way toward helping this team lock down more wins in 2024. If the Cardinals went down this path, I think we'll be looking at them adding another starting pitcher come the trade deadline then.

What do you think the Cardinals will do with the remainder of this offseason? Do you see them remaining aggressive, standing pat, or somewhere in between? Only time will tell.