Analyzing the Cardinals 3 potential paths: aggressive, passive, or stuck in between

The St. Louis Cardinals began the offseason as the most active team in baseball, but now with names like Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, other competitors are catching up, or surpassing, their level of aggression.

The Dodgers still want to add starting pitching after signing Ohtani to a record deal. The Yankees are in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and so are most of the contenders in baseball. The Braves continue to dominate the trade market. The Giants are shopping for a star. The Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Mariners, Cubs, Padres, Reds, and Diamondbacks are all hoping to improve in various ways as well.

Where the Cardinals go from here remains one of the most fascinating questions in all of baseball. Their swift moves so far have raised their floor significantly, helping them get back into playoff contention for 2024. But both locally and nationally, there is a desire to see John Mozeliak and the Cardinals' front office push the envelope just a little bit more.

Even after making three free-agent signings and trading Tyler O'Neill, the Cardinals have plenty of cash to work with. Their current payroll sits at around $171 million, which is under their 2023 Opening Day payroll, and they came into the offseason expecting it to push closer to $200 million. This leaves the Cardinals with somewhere between $26m-$29m to spend. Jason Hill of Viva El Birdos posted a helpful visual of this recently on Twitter/X.

So, what path do the Cardinals take this offseason? I believe there are three distinct paths that they could follow from here on out, and each would put them in a very different position heading into the 2024 season. One path is preferred, one path is understandable, and the other is, at best, passable. With so much offseason left, the Cardinals have plenty of time to make impactful moves, the question remains, which moves will they look to make?

Here are the three different paths the Cardinals' front office is likely weighing right now and what each path means for the rest of their offseason and chances in 2024.

Stand pat

I've seen this thrown out a lot on social media, and honestly, it feels like an overreaction. Remember when the Cardinals signed Lynn and Gibson and people thought they weren't going to make a significant move? A week later they signed Sonny Gray.

It's not even the middle of December yet and most teams in baseball still have a ton of work to do on their rosters. Sure, the Cardinals could be done with their moves, but they still have plenty of time to further improve the roster.

Let's explore this scenario though, because even though I find it extremely unlikely, it's possible. The Cardinals have added three starting pitchers (Gray, Gibson, and Lynn), two relievers who will likely factor into their bullpen (Ryan Fernandez and Nick Robertson), and helped clear some of their outfield log-jam by trading O'Neill. In theory, they've done everything they hoped to do entering this offseason, so everything else they could do is more of a "want" in their eyes.

Even if they are thinking like that, I still believe that's more likely to lead them toward more aggressive moves, but sure, it could lead them to stand pat as well. They would enter the season with over $20 million in salary flexibility to add significant pieces at the trade deadline based on the needs that arise during the season. They can let their pitching show its true colors in the first half and then decide to add the right pieces to that mix in July. They can see how their outfield pieces play and still have significant bats and prospects they could move for a bigger piece.

It really wouldn't be a shock to see the Cardinals be done with their moves for now and come back to the table later, but if they did so, it would be very disappointing. They've done enough to make themselves a fringe playoff team and still have so much money and assets to improve further, it would feel like a huge missed opportunity if they decide to stay as they are.

Add significant bullpen pieces, pause on other moves

While the Cardinals may end up ending their pursuit of more starting pitching this offseason or could be outbid on both the free agent and trade market, it would still make a lot of sense for them to make significant bullpen additions.

The Cardinals really need another high-leverage arm they can rely on late in games, especially one who is right-handed. Phil Maton, Jordan Hicks, and Hector Neris are three relievers who have been linked to the Cardinals that could fill that role, and none of them would break the bank like Josh Hader would. Hicks will likely require a multi-year deal at or north of $10 million a season, but that's not a bad number to pay in today's game. Maton and Neris have been significant parts of the Astros' bullpen recently and would bring a ton of leadership and experience to the Cardinals' relief core.

Another right-handed pitcher to watch is Korean closer Woo-suk Go, who the Cardinals have reportedly shown interest in and has been a strikeout machine in the KBO in recent years.

Another player coming over from Asia this winter, Japanese closer Yuki Matsui is another name that the Cardinals have shown interest in, and although he's a left-handed reliever, he'd still be an excellent pickup to add to an interesting group of Cardinals' arms.

If the Cardinals wanted to be aggressive with their bullpen additions, they could add one of Hicks, Maton, Neris, or Matsui, and then pursue Go or another lower-end bullpen piece to give themselves plenty of options entering spring training.

While I really want them to add another starting pitcher, it's easy to see how their current staff would take a step forward with just an infusion of talent in the bullpen. The Cardinals already solved their biggest issue from 2023, starters giving them non-competitive outings. Now that they can expect so many more quality starts from their rotation, the bullpen should not be as taxed as it was during the season.

Still, injuries, down seasons, and rest days will complicate the Cardinals' bullpen all season long, so having a variety of guys they can rely on day in and day out would go a long way toward helping this team lock down more wins in 2024. If the Cardinals went down this path, I think we'll be looking at them adding another starting pitcher come the trade deadline then.

What do you think the Cardinals will do with the remainder of this offseason? Do you see them remaining aggressive, standing pat, or somewhere in between? Only time will tell.