Analyzing the 2023 St. Louis Cardinals defensive woes

A part of the demise of the 2023 St. Louis Cardinals season has been its uncharacteristic defensive shortcomings. A team once known for its stalwart defense has stumbled throughout the 2023 season. From misplayed fly balls to poor routes to errant throws, the defensive deficiencies have been on display prominently in 2023.

While the shift changes could be a factor in the team's mishaps, it surely is not the sole factor. For example, in 2021, the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, and Detroit Tigers shifted the most of any team in the majors. The Dodgers were far and away the most frequent shifters at 53.4%. In contrast, the Cardinals shifted in only 21.4% of all at-bats.

In 2022, The Dodgers, Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, and Miami Marlins shifted the most. The Cardinals increased their shift usage by about 33% from 21.4% of at-bats to 27.9% of all at-bats. Across the league, left-handed batters were shifted against the most. Suffice it to say, when the shift was around, the Cardinals used it at a lower-than-league-average rate. Therefore, the shift was not paramount to the team's defensive prowess in 2021 and 2022. The question remains: why are the Cardinals much worse defensively this year than in years past?

In a more traditional lens, the Cardinals committed 84 errors in 2021, and 66 errors in 2022, and have already committed 43 errors this year. They are on pace to commit about 61 errors this season. Errors don't seem to be the issue for the Cardinals. What has been the problem, then?

Let's take a look at the positional statistics for Outs Above Average and analyze player positioning to see where the Cardinals have changed in the last three seasons.

Poor Performers

Catcher, right field, and left field are the three worst-ranked positions defensively. Let's take a look at innings leaders for those positions. In left field, Alec Burleson (-6 OAA) has played the most innings on the team. Jordan Walker has the most innings in right field (-11 OAA), and Willson Contreras leads all players at catcher. These three players have contributed heavily to the team's total OAA. Ironically, Brendan Donovan has been worth -1 OAA at second and -4 at first (thus the negative value at first; Goldschmidt has accumulated 3 OAA so far).

At second base, Nolan Gorman went from -11 OAA in 2022 to -2 OAA in 2023. He has shown improvement by leaps and bounds; however, Tommy Edman led the team in innings at second base in 2021. Edman accumulated 13 OAA at second in 2021. While Gorman has been serviceable, he is a significant drop from Edman.

Perhaps the most perplexing drop in OAA is at third base. Once a perennial platinum-Glove winner, Nolan Arenado's defense has been lackluster this year. While we still have ample flashy plays, he seems to be missing the little things that we as Cardinal fans used to take for granted. He has remained consistent coming on a ball, but he has seen a 6-point drop when moving toward the 3B bag.

Finding Answers

Part of the problem has been a change in personnel. 4 of the 9 positions have seen changes in the past three years. Additionally, mistakes defensively could be attributed to positioning in the field. Investigating the locations of players on the Cardinals could give us an answer to where they are falling short.

Baseball Savant provides a detailed image of player positioning each year. Looking at the graphs and images, one thing stands out to me: player depth. In 2023, infielders are playing much further than before. The shift does require all four infielders to be on the dirt; however, when comparing the Cardinals' positioning to teams such as the San Diego Padres (28 OAA) and Milwaukee Brewers (25 OAA) there are some major differences.

When looking at key differences between the Cardinals and the Padres, the Cardinals appear to have a bigger hole on the left side of the infield between shortstop and third base. While the Padres' third basemen typically shade back and up the line or in near the grass towards second base, the Cardinals plant their third basemen straight up, primarily off the line and about midway on the dirt. Their straight-up third basemen OAA is a net zero, while their toward SS/3B hole is a positive 4. Perhaps the team could benefit by sliding Arenado slightly to his left more often. As discussed above, Arenado could also benefit by moving closer to the line in certain situations. This would help his lateral movement towards third base. Rather than playing straight up, Arenado could move in either direction at the start of the at-bat based on batter tendencies.

Another stark difference in positioning between the Cardinals and Padres would be second base. The Padres play their second basemen closer to first base or straight up whereas the Cardinals place their second basemen directly behind the bag for a majority of at-bats. The Cardinals have a -2 OAA up the middle, but they have a positive 2 OAA when shaded toward the 1B/2B hole. Sliding Nolan Gorman over to his left (closer to first) more often may benefit the defense, especially since Tommy Edman is back at shortstop most often now and can cover a fair amount of ground.

Both the Padres and Brewers place their center fielders either directly left or directly right of center. The Cardinals, however, appear to work on a continuum of positions for their center fielders across a straight line. In 2022, the Cardinals' center fielders did not play in the gaps in the outfield. Rather, they shaded slightly left or slightly right, depending on the batter. This year, however, they are playing in the gaps much more often. When shading either direction, the center fielders have a positive 6 OAA. Contrarily, they are only a positive 1 when playing in the gaps. In 2022, center fielders netted +12 OAA when only shading either direction.

Conclusion

With slight adjustments in positioning, paired with patience (see Gorman and Walker), the Cardinals should see improvements in their defensive metrics. While it is unlikely they vault into the top-15 for Outs Above Average this year, the Cardinals could see great improvements next year defensively. Hopefully, this will help the team perform better in 2024.