Analyzing St. Louis Cardinals' 4 hitting coaches since 2010

When things go wrong for a baseball team, blame is cast in a variety of directions. Sometimes the owner is blamed for not spending enough. Other times the manager takes on the onus of blame. The coaches of a particular group could receive some flak. The players, however, are often the last to be blamed on the whole.

Recent narratives surrounding the St. Louis Cardinals have revolved around the team's inability to hit. Most of this malice has been aimed at the team's hitting coach, Turner Ward. For better or worse, the team's lackluster offensive output has been pinned on their hitting coach. But have Ward's philosophies and actions actually led to a lesser offensive team?

It's important to remember when comparing statistics how drastically the game has changed. Batting average is valued differently, strikeouts have increased across the league in the last 15 years, and power numbers were boosted in certain seasons, 2019 in particular. However, certain stats such as runs per game can be valued similarly across the span of time.

Furthermore, it's easy to evaluate a team's overall rank compared to other teams in the league. Perhaps a team's batting average decreased over a certain period of time, but they could have remained at the top of their league.

I wanted to take a deeper look at the last 4 hitting coaches for the St. Louis Cardinals--Mark Budaska, who only coached for 3 months in 2018, the 2020 season, and 2024 excluded. I compiled statistics for Mark McGwire, John Mabry, Jeff Albert, and Turner Ward to see how each stacked up against the other. I also did some digging to find what those coaches' general hitting philosophies were and how those ideologies affected overall team performance.

Some figures were surprising, and it was interesting to see how certain coaches leaned into trends in the sport. One noteworthy statistic was how the team's average age mostly decreased as time went on. McGwire had the oldest average lineup during his time at the helm, and Turner Ward had the youngest lineup last year. Take that however you want.

Here's a deep dive into the last 4 hitting coaches for the Cardinals by analyzing their teams' results and their philosophies.

Mark McGwire (2010-2012)

Philosophy

McGwire's philosophy is based on what he learned from his hitting coach with the Oakland Athletics, Doug Rader. According to a New York Times article from 2011, "The McGwire philosophy can be summed up in three sentences. See the ball. Only swing at pitches you can handle. And use your head."

McGwire tried to remind players that certain pitches cannot be hit; the best approach is to avoid those pitches and focus rather on the ones that are in your wheelhouse as a hitter. This approach is evidenced by the fact that McGwire's teams were often in the top 5 of the National League in walk rate during his tenure.

Overall, teams led by Mark McGwire had plenty of success. He led a top-5 offense in each of his three seasons. Having players like Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols surely helps.

Results

Mark McGwire's teams were consistently in the top half of the National League on the offensive side during his tenure. His 2011 team--the World Series winning group--was the best offensive team according to team on-base plus slugging percentage and runs scored. They were also the most veteran of the staffs with an average age of 29.3 years old.

The average OPS for teams under McGwire's leadership was .753, the average batting average was .269, average runs per game was 4.65 runs, and average strikeouts were 6.58 K's per game. Batting average was valued much differently in the early 2010s than it is today, and strikeouts weren't as premium, so both of those stats are tough to compare to today.

Runs per game and OPS, however, have remained largely consistent across baseball. Comparing team performance to other teams in the league is helpful as well. McGwire's teams were among the best in the National League at the time, and their marks have stood the test of time to this day.

John Mabry (2013-July 2018)

Philosophy

A former player for the St. Louis Cardinals, John Mabry was hired to fill the void left by Mark McGwire when he moved west to coach for the San Diego Padres. Teams under Mabry's leadership were still among the best in the National League according to OPS and runs scored, but there were some clunkers of seasons, namely 2015. That year, the team ranked 8th in OPS and 11th in runs scored.

Mabry's philosophy comes from his years in the Cardinals' organization; George Kissell's fingerprints are all over John Mabry's approach to hitting. Despite an increase in analytics and technology during Mabry's tenure, he remained true to the old way of teaching hitting. Rob Rains of KSDK wrote in 2018 that Mabry "preaches patience and confidence to his hitters. He sees the big picture."

The Cardinals remained a great team when it came to taking walks from 2013-2018, never falling out of the top half in the National League. Where they faltered, however, is in runs scored. In an era where home runs became the way, Mabry struggled to catch up to that approach in his first three years as the hitting coach.

Results

The results are slightly mixed for Mabry; his low point may have come in 2014, a year where the team had a sub-.700 OPS and failed to score more than 4 runs in a game. That is partially on Mabry and partially on roster construction/injuries. It's possible the 2013 team played as well as it did (2nd in OPS and 1st in runs scored) thanks to leftovers from Mark McGwire's tenure.

Conversely, the 2016 team was stellar offensively. They had the second-most runs scored out of any year in this exercise at 4.81, and their team OPS of .767 was the greatest in any season. These results happen to coincide with an increase in "juiced" balls, so take that however you want.

Batting averages across the league began to decrease, and strikeouts were rising just as rapidly. Mabry appeared to lean into both of those trends, as teams under his leadership had a significantly lower batting average and greater strikeout rate.

Overall, Mabry's tenure is speckled with inconsistency while still maintaining an offense near the top of the National League.

Jeff Albert (2019-2022)

Philosophy

I excluded the 2020 season from this exercise, as there were too many other challenges for teams to face that year, so it's unfair to evaluate Albert on the results of the shortened season. Altogether, Jeff Albert spent 4 seasons as the hitting coach for the Cardinals. Albert was once an assistant hitting coach with the Houston Astros as their reign of terror began in 2017. He is on record multiple times stating he had no knowledge of the cheating scandal.

Albert's philosophy dealt partially with using video to help a player make adjustments. In an interview with Xavier Scruggs, Albert said "Did we advocate a specific type of swing in the Astros organization? That's hard to answer because I don't see there being a true definition of a 'type of swing.' You try to maximize the player's ability to swing given his physical abilities."

Albert's approach to hitting is quite simple: find a pitch you like and go for it. A retooled approach in 2021 featured the team emphasizing hard-hit balls and extra-base hits, particularly with players in scoring position. Those didn't quite come to fruition when Tommy Edman spoke about a lack of a game plan in the middle of the 2021 season.

Results

Once again, the results are a bit mixed. At his best, Albert was able to create two top-3 MVP candidates in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in 2022. The team was able to finish 3rd in OPS and runs scored that year en route to a division crown. They also struck out at a low rate compared to the rest of the teams in the National League.

At his worst, Albert was able to lead his team to just 4.36 runs per game and a .725 OPS--the third-lowest of any year since 2010 for both metrics--in 2021. Overall, Albert's approach seemed pretty balanced; they faltered in walks and strikeouts, but the power metrics were certainly boosted under his guidance.

Albert left after the 2022 season due to fans spewing negativity his way and blaming poor playoff performances on him.