Analyzing St. Louis Cardinals' 4 hitting coaches since 2010

When things go wrong for a baseball team, blame is cast in a variety of directions. Sometimes the owner is blamed for not spending enough. Other times the manager takes on the onus of blame. The coaches of a particular group could receive some flak. The players, however, are often the last to be blamed on the whole.

Recent narratives surrounding the St. Louis Cardinals have revolved around the team's inability to hit. Most of this malice has been aimed at the team's hitting coach, Turner Ward. For better or worse, the team's lackluster offensive output has been pinned on their hitting coach. But have Ward's philosophies and actions actually led to a lesser offensive team?

It's important to remember when comparing statistics how drastically the game has changed. Batting average is valued differently, strikeouts have increased across the league in the last 15 years, and power numbers were boosted in certain seasons, 2019 in particular. However, certain stats such as runs per game can be valued similarly across the span of time.

Furthermore, it's easy to evaluate a team's overall rank compared to other teams in the league. Perhaps a team's batting average decreased over a certain period of time, but they could have remained at the top of their league.

I wanted to take a deeper look at the last 4 hitting coaches for the St. Louis Cardinals--Mark Budaska, who only coached for 3 months in 2018, the 2020 season, and 2024 excluded. I compiled statistics for Mark McGwire, John Mabry, Jeff Albert, and Turner Ward to see how each stacked up against the other. I also did some digging to find what those coaches' general hitting philosophies were and how those ideologies affected overall team performance.

Some figures were surprising, and it was interesting to see how certain coaches leaned into trends in the sport. One noteworthy statistic was how the team's average age mostly decreased as time went on. McGwire had the oldest average lineup during his time at the helm, and Turner Ward had the youngest lineup last year. Take that however you want.

Here's a deep dive into the last 4 hitting coaches for the Cardinals by analyzing their teams' results and their philosophies.

Mark McGwire (2010-2012)

Philosophy

McGwire's philosophy is based on what he learned from his hitting coach with the Oakland Athletics, Doug Rader. According to a New York Times article from 2011, "The McGwire philosophy can be summed up in three sentences. See the ball. Only swing at pitches you can handle. And use your head."

McGwire tried to remind players that certain pitches cannot be hit; the best approach is to avoid those pitches and focus rather on the ones that are in your wheelhouse as a hitter. This approach is evidenced by the fact that McGwire's teams were often in the top 5 of the National League in walk rate during his tenure.

Overall, teams led by Mark McGwire had plenty of success. He led a top-5 offense in each of his three seasons. Having players like Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols surely helps.

Results

Mark McGwire's teams were consistently in the top half of the National League on the offensive side during his tenure. His 2011 team--the World Series winning group--was the best offensive team according to team on-base plus slugging percentage and runs scored. They were also the most veteran of the staffs with an average age of 29.3 years old.

The average OPS for teams under McGwire's leadership was .753, the average batting average was .269, average runs per game was 4.65 runs, and average strikeouts were 6.58 K's per game. Batting average was valued much differently in the early 2010s than it is today, and strikeouts weren't as premium, so both of those stats are tough to compare to today.

Runs per game and OPS, however, have remained largely consistent across baseball. Comparing team performance to other teams in the league is helpful as well. McGwire's teams were among the best in the National League at the time, and their marks have stood the test of time to this day.

John Mabry (2013-July 2018)

Philosophy

A former player for the St. Louis Cardinals, John Mabry was hired to fill the void left by Mark McGwire when he moved west to coach for the San Diego Padres. Teams under Mabry's leadership were still among the best in the National League according to OPS and runs scored, but there were some clunkers of seasons, namely 2015. That year, the team ranked 8th in OPS and 11th in runs scored.

Mabry's philosophy comes from his years in the Cardinals' organization; George Kissell's fingerprints are all over John Mabry's approach to hitting. Despite an increase in analytics and technology during Mabry's tenure, he remained true to the old way of teaching hitting. Rob Rains of KSDK wrote in 2018 that Mabry "preaches patience and confidence to his hitters. He sees the big picture."

The Cardinals remained a great team when it came to taking walks from 2013-2018, never falling out of the top half in the National League. Where they faltered, however, is in runs scored. In an era where home runs became the way, Mabry struggled to catch up to that approach in his first three years as the hitting coach.

Results

The results are slightly mixed for Mabry; his low point may have come in 2014, a year where the team had a sub-.700 OPS and failed to score more than 4 runs in a game. That is partially on Mabry and partially on roster construction/injuries. It's possible the 2013 team played as well as it did (2nd in OPS and 1st in runs scored) thanks to leftovers from Mark McGwire's tenure.

Conversely, the 2016 team was stellar offensively. They had the second-most runs scored out of any year in this exercise at 4.81, and their team OPS of .767 was the greatest in any season. These results happen to coincide with an increase in "juiced" balls, so take that however you want.

Batting averages across the league began to decrease, and strikeouts were rising just as rapidly. Mabry appeared to lean into both of those trends, as teams under his leadership had a significantly lower batting average and greater strikeout rate.

Overall, Mabry's tenure is speckled with inconsistency while still maintaining an offense near the top of the National League.

Turner Ward (2023-Present)

Philosophy

Turner Ward was Oliver Marmol's choice to be the hitting coach in Marmol's first full season. He was brought back in 2024 for the same position. It's tough to include results from 2024, as the season is only 10% complete, so we will evaluate Ward on last year alone.

Before becoming the Cardinals' hitting coach, Ward was an assistant hitting coach for them in 2022 along with being Paul Goldschmidt's preferred coach. Oliver Marmol spoke of Ward's presence and connection with the players soon after his promotion by saying "He’s living and dying with every pitch and he’s experiencing it as if he’s in the box. And when they get back to the dugout -- good or bad [result] -- they know he’s got their back."

There are two primary aspects to Ward's coaching style: get on base and score runs (duh). Ward has taken less of an analytical approach than his predecessor did, and that has led to the Cardinals rising back up in batting average and limiting strikeouts per game. The team also did a good job at drawing walks last year.

Results

The results of Ward's more antiquated approach led the Cardinals to being largely in the middle of the pack among National League teams offensively last year. They were 6th in OPS, 10th in runs per game, 4th in walks per game, and 5th in total home runs.

Extra base hits were hard to come by last year for the Cardinals, and that stands in stark contrast to Ward's stated goals of focusing on doubles and triples. They also failed to crack the top-10 teams offensively according to runs scored, another piece of evidence contrary to Ward's resume.

Altogether, the St. Louis Cardinals hitting coaches since 2010 have varied dramatically. It's like that Mark McGwire was the best of the bunch, but each brought to the table his own unique style. There has been a dropoff in runs scored since McGwiire's inaugural season, and coaches such as Jeff Albert and Turner Ward aren't what McGwire was when reviewing stats from each season.