An in-depth look at the St. Louis Cardinals and the 2023 MLB rule changes

Let's take an in-depth look at the MLB rule changes now that the St. Louis Cardinals have gotten some experience with them

By now you are probably familiar with the rule changes that have gone into effect for the 2023 season.  Will these rule changes have a significant impact on the St. Louis Cardinals' season, and if so, will that impact be positive or negative?

The Shift Ban

Defensive shifts have been all but eliminated, as two infielders must be positioned on either side of second base when a pitch is released.  All four infielders must also have both of their feet within the infield when the pitcher is on the rubber.  Will these changes be good or bad for the Cardinals this year?

Offensively, some hitters will benefit more from these new rules than others.  The following shift statistics were taken from Baseball Savant, specifically its 2022 Hits Spray Charts and related performance statistics for players against the shift.

Based on his 2022 Hits Spray Chart, Paul Goldschmidt tends to hit the ball to all fields.  Therefore, the new rule will probably neither help nor hurt his production. 

On the other hand, the Hits Spray Chart of his teammate Nolan Arenado shows a higher tendency for him to pull the ball.  Arenado’s wOBA against the shift was .334, compared to .389 when he hit without facing a shift, although he only faced the shift in 12.1 % of his plate appearances.

New Cardinal Willson Contreras only faced a shift in 7.9% of his plate appearances.  Per Baseball Savant, the Cardinal who faced the highest percentage of shifts last year was Nolan Gorman at 71.2% of his plate appearances.  Strangely, his wOBA against the shift was .327 but was only .289 without the shift, albeit in a rather small sample size.  It is probably true that he will end up benefiting from the elimination of the shift over an entire season.

In terms of defense, it stands to reason that the teams with poorer infield defense will likely suffer more from the shift ban.  The Cardinals are solid in the infield, with the exception of questions at second base with Gorman and Brendan Donovan manning the position.  Consequently, while the Cards will almost certainly give up more runs in 2023 than in 2022, I expect their runs given-up differential compared to last year to be lower than most teams in the league.   

In general, eliminating the shift will no doubt lead to more hits and more runs across baseball. Personally, I never liked exaggerated shifts.  Few things to me were more frustrating than seeing a hitter smash a baseball only to watch it bounce or fly into the glove of a perfectly positioned (but out of place) fielder.  I like this new rule, as I enjoy station-to-station baseball as much if not more than I enjoy home runs.

Larger bases and less pick offs

In an apparent effort to limit injuries, first, second, and third base will all be larger in 2023, going from 15 inches square to 18 inches square.  The larger bases were used last year in the minors, and according to MLB.com reduced injury events at or near bases by more than 13%.

Everyone can agree that reducing injuries is good for the game, but there is another potential effect of larger bases than may impact the game.  Again per MLB.com, the larger bases mean that the distance between home plate and the first base has been reduced by three inches.  The distances from first to second base and from second to the third base have each been decreased by 4.5 inches. 

Again, as a fan of “small ball,” I expect this will lead to more stolen bases, especially considering the new rules limiting the number of pick-off attempts and step-offs available to pitchers per batter.  Under the new rules, a pitcher is only allowed two pick-off attempts or two steps off the rubber per batter.  According to MLB.com, stolen base attempts were up 26% last year in the minors after these rules were implemented.

The reduced distance between bases may also lead to more bunts and hit-and-runs, and more aggressive base running, which are all good for the game.  Frankly, I am tired of hitters always swinging for the fences and striking out over 30% of the time.  What Cardinal fan who is old enough to remember the 1982 team, as I am, did not love watching that team manufacture runs on its way to beating the Brewers in the World Series?

As for the 2023 Cardinals, they do have some team speed and I expect them to benefit from this rule change.  Tyler O’Neill’s sprint speed, per Baseball Savant, is the 97th percentile in baseball.  If he can stay on the field, he may swipe twenty bags or more.  Tommy Edman stole 32 bases last year and could steal as many as 40 or more this year.

No one can predict how many additional bases the Cardinals will steal in 2023, or when or if those steals or more aggressive baserunning will decide close games.  I can tell you that the Cardinals, and baseball as a whole, should be more enjoyable to watch.

Conclusion

It will be interesting to see how these new rules affect the game, and the Cardinals specifically, in 2023. Overall, I believe the better teams in the league, like the Cardinals, will benefit more from the new rules than poorer teams.  However, like most things in baseball, I expect the benefits will mostly even themselves out over a 162-game schedule.