An ideal St. Louis Cardinals' starting rotation for 2024

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The St. Louis Cardinals starting rotation needs a full revamp for 2024. It was the weakest part of the team last year, and it makes sense that most discussions surrounding the team this offseason have revolved around adding starting pitchers. With plenty of options in both the trade market and free agency, St. Louis can take a variety of routes

Projected salary numbers and payroll numbers have been discussed by a variety of writers, but I will use numbers by Redbird Rants' own Josh Jacobs who uses Derrick Goold primarily. The Cardinals, assuming they cut ties with some of their arbitration candidates, are likely to have approximately $60 million to spend this offseason. That is plenty of money to spend on two starters, a couple of relievers, and to trade for a starter with a higher salary.

St. Louis needs to add three starters greater than Miles MIkolas and Steven Matz. Strikeouts will be ideal this offseason, and the Cardinals will want some pitchers who can pitch greater than 170-175 innings in a season given the injury history of Steven Matz. A true ace would also be nice, but that title is given to so few players in baseball that a strong "#2" pitcher will have to do.

Keep in mind, there are still plenty of options in the minors or bullpen for the Cardinals who could fill in some innings should an injury arise. While it won't be ideal for a player like Zach Thompson or Matthew Liberatore to be a starter in the rotation all year, they are more than capable of filling in 75-100 innings in the rotation.

Any salary figures will come from this piece in the Athletic by former MLB general manager Jim Bowden.

Here is a possible starting rotation for the Cardinals in 2024.

5. Steven Matz

The Cardinals signed Steven Matz to a four-year deal worth $44 million in the 2021-2022 offseason. In two seasons, Matz has only pitched a total of 153 innings in 27 starts and 13 relief appearances. Injuries have been the story of his tenure in St. Louis thus far.

He has an ERA of 4.29, a FIP of 3.76, a WHIP of 1.307, and has struck out 8.9 batters per nine innings during his time in St. Louis. Those numbers would be very solid for a fifth starter if he could remain healthy. If the Cardinals receive 150 innings out of their #5 starter with a sub-4.50 ERA and a strikeout rate at nine batters per nine innings, their rotation will be very strong.

Matz's health is the big question, however. Since his signing, he has faced a shoulder injury that kept him out for two months, a knee injury that ended his 2022 season, and a lat injury that severely limited him this past year. He has a lengthy history of arm injuries as well, so there is concern that he won't even see 100 innings this next season.

Given the unpredictability with Matz, the Cardinals will want to sign a pitcher who can stay healthy and possibly go deep into games. If Matz can stay healthy, he will be a more than serviceable fifth starter. If Matz struggles or if he gets hurt, there are some younger pitchers who could fill in his spot for a reasonable portion of the season.

4. Miles Mikolas

Miles Mikolas appears to be someone Cardinal fans have soured on lately. From 2018-2022, Mikolas was consistently healthy and he reached the 200-inning mark in two of the seasons; he did not pitch in 2020, and he only pitched 44.2 innings in 2021. Miles has been excellent at limiting walks, but he has struggled at limiting hits during his career. He is a true workhorse who has a decent ceiling.

In 2023, Mikolas started a league-high 35 games. He had a 4.78 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 1.316 WHIP, and a 3.51 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He pitched 201.1 innings but allowed 226 hits and 107 runs. His 91 ERA+ was underwhelming, to say the least. Mikolas particularly struggled during the end of the season, for his ERA in August, September, and October was well above 5.50.

Mikolas and Matz could be interchangeable depending on Matz's health and Mikolas's performance in 2024. If Mikolas can return to his old self where he had an ERA below 4.50 again with the potential to pitch in 35 games and 200 innings, then he would be a great starter. If he continues to struggle with allowing hits, then hopefully Matz can be healthy and leapfrog him.

Mikolas's inclusion on this roster provides innings assurance for the team. He has been healthy throughout his career, and he even has the potential to be an All-Star. Mikolas's career 3.78 ERA in St. Louis is a strong number, but he may be past his best years. An ERA near 4.25 out of your fourth starter is a strong stat.

3. Lucas Giolito

Lucas Giolito would be the Cardinals' "bounceback candidate" this offseason. The 29-year-old right-handed pitcher out of California was once a Cy Young Candidate and an All-Star. He hasn't been able to reclaim that dominance these past two years, but the blueprint for success for Giolito is somewhere in there.

He has a 4.43 career ERA, a 4.44 career FIP, and a 1.254 WHIP with a K/9 rate of 9.6. Giolito has been prone to walking many batters with a 3.4 BB/9 ratio. Not only does Giolito have a high ceiling, but he has also shown himself to be dependable. Excluding his first two seasons (rookie seasons) and 2020, Giolito has pitched in more than 170 innings 5 times. He is a workhorse who has the ability to dominate a game.

In 2023, Giolito played for the Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, and Cleveland Guardians. He pitched 184.1 innings to the tune of a 4.88 ERA, 5.27 FIP, and 1.313 WHIP. He was very strong in Chicago before he was traded to the White Sox, and fans clamored for the Cardinals to claim him off waivers after he was released by Los Angeles in late August. However, the script flipped for Giolito pretty quickly after the Trade Deadline. He pitched 62.2 innings in LA and Cleveland and finished with an ERA well above 6.50, a FIP nearing 7.00, and a WHIP right around 1.500.

If the Cardinals get a Giolito closer to his 2018-2021 self, they have a potential ace on their staff. If they get a more recent version of him, it is possible they may regret this signing. Lucas Giolito is projected to sign for a 2-year, $24 million contract with a player option for the second year. That is a very manageable contract for a third starter who could possibly lead a staff. St. Louis would be wise to sign the former Cy Young candidate.

2. Tyler Glasnow

The story for Tyler Glasnow's career has been that he is a top-tier pitcher *when he's healthy*. That caveat at the end may give Cardinal fans shivers and concerns. Glasnow has never pitched more than 120 innings in a season, and he hardly played in 2022 due to Tommy John surgery in 2021. For as good of a pitcher as he is, there is an equal amount of concern that he will face a serious injury next year. Also, Glasnow is a trade candidate who is projected to receive $20 million through arbitration; he would cost the Cardinals major league talent and a decent chunk of change.

Glasnow has never been nominated for a Cy Young award, and he has never been an All-Star. The accolades aren't quite there for the right-handed pitcher; however, the stats back up his dominance on the mound. In his career, Glasnow has a 3.89 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 1.206 WHIP, and an 11.5 K/9 rate. He is a strong pitcher who controls the game. His K% and whiff rates from 2023 are near the top of the league.

In 2023, Glasnow had a 3.53 ERA, 2.91 FIP(!), 1.083 WHIP, and struck out over 12 batters per nine innings. He pitched 120 innings, the most of his entire career. He was in the top 3% of all pitchers in K%, but he did give up hard hits (11th percentile in hard-hit percentage, 4th percentile in barrel percentage, and 15th percentile in average exit velocity.

Glasnow's fastball consistently hits 96 and touches 99 on occasion, his curveball is excellent at generating whiffs, and his slider plays off his breaking pitches well. Glasnow could be the ace of the staff when he's healthy.

With this starting rotation, the hope is that Nola, Giolito, and Mikolas can pitch enough innings that Glasnow's possible (inevitable?) absence during the season doesn't affect the team too much. Also, players like Matthew Liberatore, Zach Thompson, Michael McGreevy, and Gordon Graceffo would be capable enough to fill in should an injury arise.

1. Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola would be the big fish of the offseason. His name has been mentioned at the top of free agent lists this offseason with Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Blake Snell. Should St. Louis acquire Nola, it would be a fantastic addition to the rotation. Nola has pitched solely in Philadelphia, and this is his first chance to test free agency.

Aaron Nola has been both a workhorse and an ace throughout his career. He has made 32 or more starts in 5 of his 9 seasons, he has pitched greater than 180 innings in 5 seasons, and he has received Cy Young votes, an All-Star nod, and even MVP votes in 2018. He has a career 3.72 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 1.129 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9 rate. Nola has been a top pitcher in all of baseball throughout his 9-year career.

In 2023, Aaron Nola took a bit of a step back. He finished the season with a 4.46 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and a 1.151 WHIP. He allowed more walks than he did in 2022, and he had the lowest K/9 rate of his career (9.4). His 4-seamer, curveball, and sinker all took massive dips in run value according to Baseball Savant. Where Nola was successful was in limiting walks and getting batters to chase.

He pitched best in August this past year, but he struggled throughout September and October. In the postseason, Nola was stellar. He pitched 23 innings and finished with a 3-1 record. He had a 2.35 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. Nola's performances were not the reason the Phillies were trounced from the playoffs.

While there is slight concern that Nola won't be able to replicate his past successes based on his 2023 season, he has shown an ability to lead a team to victory multiple times during his career. Nola would be the ace the Cardinals' staff was missing in 2023. The Athletic projects Nola to sign a 5-year, $125 million contract, but figures nearing $200 million have been thrown around this offseason as well.

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