A deeper dive into the stats says the Cardinals need to stop focusing on launch angle

Looking at the Cardinals’ hitting woes, one has to wonder if there isn’t a bit of a disconnect linking hitting philosophy, with analytics, and with each player’s strengths. One thing we keep hearing about is the launch angle. That makes sense. You can’t hit a home run if you are driving the ball into the ground. But does a higher launch angle mean more home runs?

If a player made it to the majors because of his natural swing which produces line drives, and a high on-base percentage, is it problematic if you try to change his swing just to get more home runs? Is this even the best metric to use?

The top five home run producers since 2021 are Judge (144), Schwarber (133), Alonzo (131) Ohtani (131), and Olson (130). If you examine their launch angles, find Judge (15.1), Ohtani (13.8) Olson (16.1), Schwarber (18.1), and Alonzo at (15.6). 

If launch angles translate to home runs, we should find these players at the top of that category as well. Schwarber ranks 33, Alonzo ranks 44, Olson 53, Judge 71, and Ohtani 100. So, no. The five players at the top of the launch angle category are Duvall, Gallo, Belt, Trout, and Wisdom. These five combined for 362 home runs over that period. The top five listed above combined for 669. 

The Cardinals, as a team over that period, had the sixth-best launch angle of the league but only the twelfth most home runs. 

So, if not LA, then what? The category the home run hitters have in common is exit velocity. Four of the top hitters rank in the top ten in Exit Velo. Schwarber ranks 24th. The Cardinals have Goldschmidt ranking 30th and Arenado at 148th in Exit Velo. The Cardinals as a team ranked 15th. 

It is quite possible that by having the players concentrate on a statistic such as LA; you take away from the principle of seeing the ball and hitting the ball. This year the hard hit rate has gone down along with the barrel rate. If you want to get better at something, look at those that do that thing well. The thing the top home run hitters are excelling with is Exit Velocity not launch angle. Maybe it’s time to change the approach.