A budget version of the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals' roster

Let's peer into the not-so-distant future.

The year is 2026. The St. Louis Cardinals have freed up millions of dollars after watching the pricey contracts of Paul Goldschmidt, Steven Matz, Erick Fedde, and Miles Mikolas expire. Top prospects like Tink Hence, Quinn Mathews, and Thomas Saggese are more than ready for the majors, and the team is eyeing a youth revolution.

To make matters more complicated, Major League Baseball is in the final season of its most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement. Owners are still feeling the effects of the COVID seasons and TV deals from the last two years falling apart. Additionally, they're being cautious due to the impending CBA expiration.

This perfect storm of issues has caused owners to be even more frugal than they have been recently. Teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, and New York Mets boast payrolls nearing $300 million, but the bulk of teams are wanting to stay well below luxury tax levels.

The latter area is where Bill DeWitt III and his son are wanting to operate. In fact, John Denton of MLB.com reported recently that the owner was not wanting to add "significant" salary over the next few seasons. He could be seeing the writing on the wall with TV deals and CBA disagreements on the horizon.

Therefore, John Mozeliak and his successor following the 2025 season must get creative -- and frugal -- to fill out a roster in 2026. While the Cardinals have ample players who will be in arbitration come 2026, they only have three players on the books for that year: Sonny Gray, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras.

The Colorado money has dried up with Nolan Arenado by then, so the Cardinals are on the hook for the entirety of his contract. Those three veterans will account for a total of $80 million in 2026. That's a sizeable chunk of change to have invested in just three players.

I wanted to build a projected roster for 2026 for the Cardinals. Before we begin, I have some self-imposed rules that will be followed as closely as possible.

Rules:
1. Players must be in the organization right now. No free agents, no future draftable players.
2. The final payroll must be around $160 million. This allows ~some~ free agency flexibility over the next two seasons, but I wanted to keep the payroll low, as the DeWitts may not be willing to commit a lot of money over the next few years.
3. 13 pitchers and 13 position players, as is the team's custom lately.

You can view contractual commitments here on Baseball-Reference. Without further ado, here is a projected St. Louis Cardinals' 2026 roster using in-house players!

Rotation

RHP Sonny Gray
RHP Tink Hence
LHP Quinn Mathews
LHP Cooper Hjerpe
LHP Matthew Liberatore

This list is in no particular order, but it's likely that Sonny Gray will get the Opening Day start due to his veteran status and time spent in the organization by then. Behind Gray, the Cardinals will boast an assortment of young pitchers. This collection of starters has three left-handed pitchers, so I could see a world where Matthew Liberatore or Cooper Hjerpe are replaced by Tekoah Roby (if he gets healthy) or Gordon Graceffo.

This is the list of starters I'll go with, though. Liberatore is ready now to make major league starts, but he will benefit tremendously from a full offseason of preparation for said role. Hence, Mathews, and Hjerpe will be more than ready come 2026, and at least one of them should see a cup of coffee in the majors as early as 2025.

Every player except for Gray will still be in pre-arbitration by then. Minimum salaries in 2026 according to the CBA are set at $780,000. Including Sonny Gray's $35 million price tag and the pre-arb salaries of the other four starters, and you have a rotation that costs only $38.12 million. That's a breath of fresh air compared to this year's rotation price of $81 million.

If these pitching prospects continue to develop at the rate they are, this rotation will be young, cheap, talented, and exciting to watch. Other viable options for the rotation include Drew Rom, Zack Thompson, Tekoah Roby, and Andre Pallante.

Infielders

First base: Alec Burleson
Second base: Nolan Gorman
Third base: Nolan Arenado
Shortstop: Masyn Winn
Catcher: Ivan Herrera

The 2026 rendition of the Cardinals' infield largely mirrors the 2024 version sans one player: Alec Burleson. The Cardinals' best hitter this year moves from the outfield to the dirt at first base. Nolan Gorman stays at second, Nolan Arenado mans the hot corner for another year, and Masyn Winn continues his ascendancy at shortstop. Ivan Herrera becomes the team's primary catcher.

Most of the infield was easy to select; Winn isn't moving off shortstop anytime soon. He's the player of the future there for the Redbirds. Alec Burleson's transition to first base seems imminent given Paul Goldschmidt's free agency. Nolan Arenado will stay at third base, as that's his position to lose.

It got tricky at second base. Nolan Gorman has not been good this year. He took a step back defensively, and his wild swings offensively have led fans to tire of him already. I could honestly see the team trading him in the near future, but that's not a part of this exercise. Other players who could overtake Gorman at second base would be Thomas Saggese and newly drafted JJ Wetherholt.

This infield boasts decent defensive metrics, though one can only wonder how Nolan Arenado will age at the hot corner. Masyn Winn's defense isn't a concern, and Alec Burleson has graded out as a neutral defender at first according to defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rating. Given a full-time job there, and he could become a plus defender. Don't expect Ivan Herrera to be behind the plate for all 162 games. A 60/30/10 split with him as the primary backstop seems likely and Willson Contreras seeing 10% of the starts by then.

Arenado is on the hook for a cool $27 million in 2026. Masyn Winn is still going to be in pre-arb, so he'll cost $780,000 (though he could reach arbitration by then if he receives certain awards this year). Ivan Herrera won't be in arbitration by then either, so he'll cost the league minimum. Alec Burleson will enter his first year of arbitration that year, and I think he could garner around $5 million that year on the high end. Nolan Gorman will also be in his first year of arb, so let's assign him a round $5 million as well. The infield will cost around $40 million.

Outfield/DH

Right field: Jordan Walker
Center field: Victor Scott II
Left field: Lars Nootbaar
Designated hitter: Willson Contreras

The outfield was a bit straightforward. Hopefully, by 2026, Jordan Walker will have figured out his offensive struggles, and he's ready to take on the mantle of the Cardinals' permanent right fielder. The same can be said of Victor Scott II, though his offensive ceiling is much lower than Walker's. Lars Nootbaar returns in left field as the team's veteran outfielder by then.

The defensive profile of this outfield is pretty strong. Victor Scott II projects as a plus-plus defender with his speed. Nootbaar has always been a plus defender in the corners, and he could even see a few innings in center. Hopefully, Jordan Walker will be less of a negative defender by then.

On the offensive side, Scott's speed can cause a lot of trouble for opposing teams. Nootbaar presents an all-around offensive profile with a penchant to get on base. Walker has a fantastic hit tool and the potential for some serious power. Noot and VS2 are both lefties, so they'll provide a bit of variety to the batting order along with Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman. This is an exciting group of outfielders on both sides of the ball.

At designated hitter, we find Willson Contreras. It was assumed when the Cardinals signed Contreras prior to the 2023 season that he would eventually take this mantle, and 2026 seems to be the most likely year that he (almost) phases out of catching. As I said previously, I still expect Contreras to see some time behind the plate, but the bulk of his time will be spent at DH.

Nootbaar will be in his second year of arbitration, and I can't even guess what he would fetch. Let's say around $7 million. Scott will be making the league minimum of $780,000. Walker will be in his first year of arbitration, and he could see anywhere from $3-$10 million depending on how he performs these next two years. Let's call his figure at $5.5 million. Contreras is the most expensive of the bunch at $18 million. This gives the outfield and DH group a total salary of around $31 million.

Other options for the outfield include Brendan Donovan (more on him later), Michael Siani, and Chase Davis (also, more on him later).

Reserves

INF Thomas Saggese
UTIL Brendan Donovan
C Jimmy Crooks
OF Chase Davis

The bench was the toughest portion of this exercise. Right off the bat, it's tough to see Brendan Donovan listed as a "reserve". By 2026, I expect to see Brendan Donovan play as many games as possible in a season. Don't be confused by his placement here in the reserves section. Donovan will see time in left field, third base, second base, and occasionally at DH throughout the year. He's not going anywhere.

Thomas Saggese sees some serious MLB time by 2026, and 2023 first-round draft pick Chase Davis has ascended by now to become the team's fourth outfielder. The catching position was tough, as any one of Pedro Pages, Jimmy Crooks, or Leonardo Bernal could be the team's backup by then. I chose Crooks over those two as I wouldn't be surprised to see Pages traded between now and then, and Bernal's defense trails behind hit bat. Crooks's glove-first approach pairs well with the offense that Ivan Herrera would provide.

Chase Davis played center field in college, and the Cardinals have tried him there over the last year in the minors. He wouldn't be tested out there often, as it's likely Lars Nootbaar would shift to center on days when Victor Scott II isn't in the lineup. This bench leans lefty, as only Thomas Saggese hits right-handed, but the versatility of the players here and in the infield should alleviate that problem. There is a possibility JJ Wetherholt cracks the roster this year; trades of either Nolan Gorman or Thomas Saggese will open up that opportunity.

Only Brendan Donovan will be in arbitration by this time, and he could see around $10 million in his second year of arbitration this year. That will be the priciest of the role players. This bench will cost no more than $15 million in 2026.

How'd we do?

Starting lineup

C Ivan Herrera
1B Alec Burleson
2B Nolan Gorman
3B Nolan Arenado
SS Masyn Winn
LF Lars Nootbaar
CF Victor Scott II
RF Jordan Walker

Rotation

RHP Sonny Gray
LHP Quinn Mathews
RHP Tink Hence
LHP Cooper Hjerpe
LHP Matthew Liberatore/RHP Tekoah Roby

Bench

INF Thomas Saggese
UTIL Brendan Donovan
C Jimmy Crooks
OF Chase Davis

Bullpen

LHP JoJo Romero
RHP Andre Pallante
RHP Ryan Fernandez
LHP John King
RHP Ian Bedell
LHP Zack Thompson
RHP Tekoah Roby/LHP Matthew Liberatore

Total cost: ~$167 million

Well, we were close. That figure could change drastically, as the Cardinals could sign some of their arbitration guys to more team-friendly deals in the future, and my arbitration estimates are possibly way off. I missed the cap of $160 million by a hair, and perhaps this rounding error will be accepted by the DeWitt family.

The rotation and lineup feature quite a few lefties, so it's possible that changes between now and 2026. Regardless, this homegrown roster isn't overly disappointing. Our top pitching prospects have blossomed by then, and the young players we have in 2024 will have grown into grizzled veterans in the interim. There is still some versatility in this lineup thanks to Brendan Donovan and Thomas Saggese.

My one gripe with the lineup is that it doesn't boast much power beyond Jordan Walker and Willson Contreras. Nolan Gorman could provide the power, but his tendency to go cold would concern me still. The on-base abilities of this group will bother opposing pitching staffs, though.

This is an exciting bunch of players who could all be regulars come 2026. The major league roster boasts a fair amount of youth in 2024, and there are some exciting players in the minor leagues who are nearing promotions.