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8 players the Cardinals need to consider trading if their season is over
The St. Louis Cardinals may be heading toward selling again at this year's trade deadline. If that's the case, these 8 players could be made available.
The St. Louis Cardinals are in a nose dive right now, dropping six of their last eight games while falling to 15-21 on the season. And somehow, that's not even the worst news of all. The Cardinals lost their superstar catcher Willson Contreras to a fractured forearm on Tuesday night after his arm got hit on a swing from Mets' designated hitter J.D. Martinez.
Are the Cardinals on a one-way track toward being sellers again in 2024?
That's what it feels like right now, but I want to say on the front end that May 8th is not exactly the moment in time when teams need to determine if they are out of contention or not. But to be fair to Cardinals fans, it is probably difficult to even entertain the idea of patience after what happened in 2023.
The Cardinals could win their next four games and things would feel at least a bit better. The offense continues to be dormant even with all of the talent it possesses. While the Cardinals preaching patience regarding their pitching woes in 2023 seemed hopeless at best, their reluctance to give up on this offense makes a lot of sense. I get the argument for making a change at hitting coach to shake things up, but ultimately, the lineup should not be as bad as it is.
And yet, here we are. And I think it's fair to have some conversations about what kinds of trades the Cardinals could be looking at in the near future if this season ends up being a wash.
I've covered the the overall idea of a retool for 2025 on the site already, but today I'm going to take a deep dive at each of the prominent trade candidates on the Cardinals roster if things continue to go south and they need to begin a true retool or rebuild. I'll state their case a bit as trade assets, talk about what kind of value I think the Cardinals could get in return, and name a few destinations that could make sense.
While there is still time for the Cardinals to turn things around, here are eight players the club should consider trading if the season is truly over.
Paul Goldschmidt
I'll be brief on the idea of Paul Goldschmidt as a trade chip since he is the most obvious piece to move, and yet, is the most complicated player on this list to determine any kind of trade value for.
Goldschmidt has been bad in 2024, plain and simple. He is now slashing .195/.287/.263, good for a .550 OPS and just 11 RBI on the year. It's the beginning of May and Goldschmidt's stats still look this bad. It's a continuation of what was a really disappointing second half from Goldschmidt in 2023, and frankly, there are no signs of things getting better right now. After his 4-5 performance against the Tigers on April 30th, Goldschmidt has gone 0-23 in the last six games he has played in, striking out in 10 of those appearances.
Right now, Goldschmidt does not look like a guy that any contender wants to add to their lineup. So if this is the player he'll be all season, then I honestly don't know what happens with him. Maybe someone offers pennies on the dollar to see if he gets a resurgence on a new club, or maybe the Cardinals ride it out and just let his contract expire. If he can turn things around, he may be one of the better bats available in the trade market and help the Cardinals get a decent prospect in return.
Trade fits: Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Tigers, Twins, Mariners, and Rangers
Lance Lynn
Pitching is always needed at the deadline. Pretty much any time that will be looking to buy will be interested in upgrading their rotation. This means that there will be plenty of suitors for the services of Lance Lynn, and that there won't be many arms available to compete with him.
Why's that? Well, with the expanded playoffs, with so many teams refusing to "sell" at the deadline these days, there are just less arms available on the market. And with the way Lynn has pitched so far this season, he'll be among the better starting pitchers that teams could trade for.
In seven starts so far for St. Louis, Lynn has posted a 3.28 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 35.2 innings of work. He's been a gamer every time he's gotten on the mound for the Cardinals, giving them a chance to win in almost every start. The home run ball is still something you worry about with Lynn, but overall, he has been far more effective this season with St. Louis than he was with Chicago and Los Angeles last year.
Lynn also brings a veteran presence to any club that would acquire him and carries postseason experience as well. We are still pretty far out from the trade deadline, so his performance could change drastically between now and then, but with the way he is pitching right now, most contenders will have some level of interest.
I would keep an eye out for teams who have had a lot of starting pitching injuries and need someone to help them down the stretch as they fight for October baseball. Lynn's performance so far this year could warrant a start in the postseason, but at the very least, he can help a club get there.
Trade fits: Astros, Diamondbacks, Padres, Reds, Twins, Braves, Yankees, Padres, and Brewers
Ryan Helsley
Oddly enough, the most valuable (and realistic) trade chip the Cardinals may be able to leverage at this year's trade deadline may not be a starting pitcher or big time veteran bat, but rather, their elite closer in Ryan Helsley.
Helsley's value is multi-faceted. First, closers like Helsley do not grow on trees and are often times one of the most sought after players on the trade market for their ability to be a literal game changer. Helsley has a 1.50 ERA in 18 games so far this season and has been lights out at the end of games for the Cardinals. Having a guy who can throw 103 MPH out of the bullpen with nasty breaking stuff as well is a huge advantage come October, and teams who think they can run the table in 2024 will want to get in on that.
Second, Helsley is under team control for the 2025 season as well, so any club acquiring him is adding them to their bullpen next season as well. Two playoff runs with a closer like Helsley is worth a lot on the market, and past trade deadlines have shown us that.
Josh Hader was dealt to the Padres with similar club control remaining but was having a really bad year with the Brewers so his value was lower than it could have been. The most famous instance of a big-time closer being traded at the deadline was in 2016 when the Yankees decided to do their own little retool, trading Aroldis Chapman to the Chicago Cubs for the 24th-ranked prospect in all of baseball at the time in Gleyber Torres, as well as pitcher Adam Warren and prospects Billy McKinney and Rashad Crawford.
Chapman had just half a season left on his contract, but the Cubs paid a haul to grab him so they could go on and win the World Series. While they may have overpaid a bit to break their curse, I think a similar package would be very possible for Helsley given the extra year of club control he has.
Trade fits: Dodgers, Braves, Rangers, Padres, Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Orioles
Nolan Arenado
Here's the flowchart of outcomes that I think leads to an eventual Nolan Arenado trade.
1. The Cardinals become sellers.
2. They trade Paul Goldschmidt.
3. Arenado wants out and the Cardinals are open to facilitating that move.
It really does feel that simple to me. I could see a world where a trade is too complicated and Arenado doesn't force the issue so he stays with the club to try and win again in 2026, but it's no secret that Arenado has also dreamed of playing for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and for years now the Dodgers have wanted to acquire him.
I'm not trying to say that Arenado is looking for the first ticket he can get to Los Angeles. Honestly, if that was the case, it would have happened last trade deadline when the Dodgers were trying to will that into existence or during the offseason. Heck, Arenado could have opted out of his contract two offseasons ago and signed with the Dodgers.
Still, if things don't work out in St. Louis, I do believe Arenado would be happy to return home to Los Angeles and join the superteam that has formed there in pursuit of his first World Series ring.
Arenado has been playing a bit better as of late, but his .741 OPS is still nowhere near his normal self. He's hit just two home runs this year, and his .390 SLG is the worst of his career since his rookie season. Arenado has rebounded in a big way defensively this season, helping recapture some of his value.
Arenado's contract is actually uniquely structured to fall in salary over the next few seasons. After making $35 million in 2024, his salary will drop to $32 million in 2025 and $27 million in 2026 before a big step back to $15 million in 2027. That contract is easier to take on than people would think, but there's still a chance the Dodgers would want the Cardinals to eat money on it, especially if they want any substantive prospects back.
If Arenado heats up this summer though, that could become a different story. But it's hard to imagine him being traded anywhere else but the Dodgers, and if Los Angeles knows that, it may be hard to get a good deal from them.
Trade fit: Los Angeles Dodgers
Kyle Gibson
Much like Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson has been better than advertised for the Cardinals so far. His 3.68 ERA in seven starts thus far has been a godsend for this rotation, and Gibson has managed to throw at least six innings in every start he's made thus far.
Gibson was a key cog in the Baltimore Orioles rotation in 2023, the team that finished with the best record in all of baseball last season. Pitchers like Gibson are valuable for contenders, pumping quality starts every fifth day, giving their bullpen a break, and giving the offense a chance to win the game each time. Gibson likely won't net the Cardinals a premium prospect, but I still do think he would make it worth their while if they had to trade him.
One of the benefits of trading for both Lynn and Gibson and something that I think ups their trade values a lot, is the fact that they have club options for 2025. If either guy struggles for their new club, they can decline the team option and let them hit free agency once again. If they succeed and the club wants to bring them back, they have a super affordable club option attached to them.
So basically, both arms can be treated like rentals for their new clubs, while also being able to "lease" their services for another year if needed. Again, with not a ton of productive starting pitchers likely available at the deadline this year, Gibson would net the Cardinals a return that could be very helpful in 2025 and beyond.
Trade fits: Astros, Diamondbacks, Padres, Reds, Twins, Braves, Yankees, Padres, and Brewers
Andrew Kittredge
He's not Ryan Helsley, but Andrew Kittredge has been the definition of a stopper for the Cardinals this year. Whenever the Cardinals have been in a pinch or are looking to hold a lead at any point in the game, Kittredge has been available to run out to the mound and get them three outs.
In his 15 appearances for St. Louis thus far, Kittredge has a 1.20 ERA and 0.93 WHIP while striking out nine batters per nine innings. Kittredge has proven he's back to being the All-Star reliever he once was, and any contending team would love to add him to the back of their bullpen.
Kittredge could slot in as a team's closer, set-up man, or the guy they bring in during any inning to get them out of a jam like the Cardinals do. That kind of reliever is valuable on the trade market, and would surely bring the Cardinals back a nice return.
For context, Aroldis Chapman was traded by the Royals to the Rangers for Cole Ragans last season, and now Ragans is emerging as an ace for Kansas City. The Cardinals got Sem Robberse in the package they received for Jordan Hicks, and he's been performing at a high level for the Memphis Redbirds this season. The Cardinals gave up Richie Palacios to go get Kittredge this offseason, and I expect them to be able to get that kind of return or better at this year's deadline if they decide to move him.
Kittredge is a free agent following the season, so he would be just a rental for any contender in the market for him.
Trade fits: Blue Jays, Phillies, Cubs, Reds, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Rangers, Orioles, and Padres
Sonny Gray
We've got two names left on my list, and Sonny Gray is one that I think we need to keep our eye on if things go south for St. Louis. There are multiple reasons they should trade him if they go into a retool, but there are also multiple reasons they should keep him either way.
Let's start with the arguments to keep Gray around in St. Louis. First, he wanted to be in St. Louis. It's close to his home in Nashville, and it allows him and his family to be close to where they want to be. While fans' minds often go to being on a winning team no matter what, family and location matter to players too, and it was part of the draw for Gray to St. Louis.
Second, if the Cardinals want to try and win again in the near future, it's hard to argue against the idea of Gray being a part of that rotation. Gray has been everything you could possibly want in an ace so far this season and is coming off a second-place finish in the American League Cy Young Award voting, and that's the kind of guy you want in your rotation if you want to win.
Third, Gray is the exact kind of veteran you want pouring into your young arms who are coming up over the next two years. While veterans like Lynn, Gibson, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz can speak into a young pitcher's life and career, Gray has the exact personality of a guy who can shepherd a young staff, much like Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright did before him. It's also a major advantage for that staff mentor to also be one of the best pitchers in baseball.
So far all of those reasons, I can see why the Cardinals would want to hold onto Gray, but there are also many reasons why they could trade him instead.
First, Gray is 34 this season and has posted a 0.89 ERA in his five starts thus far. He's been incredible, but it's easy to imagine him regressing over the next few seasons. That doesn't mean he'll become a bad pitcher, but his value is the highest it will ever be right now.
Second, speaking of his value, I would have a hard time believing there would be a single starting pitcher better than Gray on the trade market come July. In fact, Gray would likely be the most valuable piece available at the deadline, and paired with a Helsley trade, could bring the Cardinals back a haul of prospects and young talent. If their eyes are on the future, that's hard to pass up.
Third, Gray's contract is backloaded, meaning his salary jumps up significantly over the next two seasons. He's owed $25 million in 2025 and $35 million in 2026. While the Cardinals don't have to move off that money, it may be wise to do so with an aging pitcher when your club is going to be taking a step back, even if it's just for a year or two.
Again, every contender is going to be interested in Gray, and the Cardinals would likely get the greatest package of talent in return of any team selling players at the deadline.
Trade fits: Braves, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Padres, Astros, Orioles, and Dodgers
Tommy Edman
The last name I have on this list is center fielder and super-utility man Tommy Edman, but his value will be hard to determine until he's able to get back on the field.
Edman has been recovering from offseason wrist surgery and experienced multiple setbacks along the way. It seems like he's finally getting to a good spot in his rehab and may be back by the end of May, but he'll also need to prove he's still a productive player for teams to want to make a deal for him.
The Cardinals could certainly find a buyer for Edman, even if he struggles out of the gate. He makes just $7 million this year and $9.5 million next year and has shown the ability to be a league-average bat with elite defense in center field or second base, and is capable of providing quality defense at any other spot on the field as well outside of first base and catcher.
Utility players are extremely valuable, which is why the Cardinals have been such big fans of Edman. His ability and willingness to plug and play wherever he's needed is a huge asset to any team, and he could net some nice value from a contender if the Cardinals were open to moving him.
Masyn Winn is the Cardinals shortstop of the future and Thomas Saggese will be able to spell Winn soon once he arrives in St. Louis. While Victor Scott II struggled in his first shot at the big leagues, it's clear the club wants him to become their center fielder long-term, and they still have Dylan Carlson around to fill in there if need be. Frankly, if they are retooling, they can even run Michael Siani out there every day if needed.
It would make a ton of sense to capitalize on Edman's value if he can regain it by the time the deadline comes around, and there are a lot of potential contenders who could use a center fielder, shortstop, second baseman, or all of the above.
Trade fits: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Mariners, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Rangers
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