8 lessons the St. Louis Cardinals need to learn from the terrible 2023 season

The 2023 season is finally at its conclusion for the St. Louis Cardinals, and truth be told, it's one that we all will want to forget.

While the Cardinals surely feel the same way, they cannot afford to forget the mistakes that led to this disastrous season. I've argued recently that this may have been the exact kind of season the organization needed, from top to bottom, to produce the kind of change that many of us saw they needed from a mile away. Consistently being good enough to contend can make it easy to avoid the more difficult changes they have needed in recent years.

Now that the season is over earlier than they are typically used to, the Cardinals have extra time to sit down and evaluate how they will move forward as an organization. I really do believe they have the tools at their disposal to retool this team for contention in 2024, but if they do not learn from the lessons the 2023 season brought them, then they could very easily end up in the same boat next year.

Some of these lessons are years in the making, systemic issues that have piled up over time that will take more than an offseason to completely fix. Some of those issues they've actually been working to improve on already, but they are feeling the ramifications of those issues from mistakes in the past.

Other lessons are from issues that developed during this season specifically and have caused this team to look like the shell of itself from years and decades past.

Here are 8 lessons the Cardinals need to learn from the 2023 season

Pitching, pitching, and more pitching

This point can be broken down into multiple facets, but the bottom line, the way the Cardinals have handled their pitching over the last few years has been a disaster.

This club is a far cry from where they were a decade ago, when they made the 2013 World Series on the backs of a dynamic pitching staff, led by veteran arms with a strong influx of youth who were on the rise in the game of baseball.

If you look at this year's staff, the only starter who was truly a difference-maker was Jordan Montgomery, who was traded for a really nice return at the trade deadline. Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz, and Miles Mikolas all disappointed relative to their expectations this year. Each of those starters had question marks entering the season, and yet the Cardinals felt locked into that uncertainty, and it cost them dearly.

The bullpen had the same issues. They barely made any additions during the offseason and experienced a host of injuries and down-years from their returning group. Bullpens fluctuate year to year around baseball, but there were clear warning signs last offseason that it could go poorly

It would be an easier problem to solve if the Cardinals just needed a number one starter or just needed pitching depth, but they need both. This offseason, the Cardinals realistically need two new starters to top their rotation, if not three, and to bring in some help for their bullpen. If they are able to accomplish those things, they'll be right back in the National League race. Look at the teams who have been fighting for the final Wild Card the last few weeks. The Cardinals can easily leapfrog those teams with a strong offseason, but they should really be pushing for even higher expectations as well.

The next lesson I identified will be critical for this retool, though.

It's time to catch up with the league's spending

Payroll numbers are a tricky thing to pin down in today's game, but outlets like the St. Louis Post-Dispatch will be must-reads this offseason as their reporting on official numbers comes out.

MLB Trade Rumors has already done some digging on the Cardinals' payroll, and has the Cardinals at $108 million in financial commitments so far for 2024, before paying out arbitration to any of their thirteen eligible candidates.

My guess right now is that they end up adding about $25 million in salary in arbitration to those players, with guys like Tyler O'Neill, Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford, Dylan Carlson, and Jacob Barnes being non-tender or trade candidates.

That puts St. Louis at about $133 million in payroll commitments before free agency. Having a top-10 payroll in today's game means hitting the $200 million threshold, leaving the Cardinals will about $77 million in cash to use if they intend on getting to that threshold.

That's the big question though, and something that the DeWitt family has to answer. The front office can want to bring in true difference makers to their pitching staff, but that can only happen if ownership is willing to spend the necessary money to do so.

Should they open up the pocketbooks this offseason, the path toward grabbing three starters is very realistic. It'll likely take about $50 million to grab the top two arms they'd want from free agency, leaving them with an additional $27 million and trade capital to address the other rotation spot and bullpen issues.

Figure out the balance between holding onto legacy players and fielding the most competitive team

One of the things that makes the St. Louis Cardinals such a storied franchise is their ability to hold onto their iconic players. It's a beautiful thing but can create issues down the line if not done with both purpose and realistic expectations.

While Adam Wainwright's presence on the 2023 team is not the reason they fell apart this year, his $17.5 million salary and their overreliance on his production were part of the problem. They prioritized bringing him back over potentially a difference-making arm, something I think they would've handled a little differently with some hindsight.

The Albert Pujols situation in 2022 was an example of them doing this well. They brought Pujols in on a low salary, and he was filling a gap for them that other options could have stepped into if needed. He ended up being one of their best players, but they were not banking on that being the case.

While the Wainwright and Pujols situations were very unique, the Cardinals do have some more legacy player situations coming up. Paul Goldschmidt is a free agent after the 2024 season and Nolan Arenado is aging, so they will have to make some tough decisions with both players that will directly impact their championship window, both now and into the future.

Take a long and hard look at how they draft and develop pitching

The Cardinals simply have not drafted and developed pitching like they did in the 2000s and early 2010s. Pitching used to be the calling card of this organization, and now it's a huge blemish on what they do.

I would actually argue that they have already begun to make shifts in this area that will be felt in 2024, but especially in 2025 and beyond, but there is still a ways to go in order to improve this organizational issue.

Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, Gordon Graceffo, Cooper Hjerpe. Sem Robberse, Michael McGreevy, Ian Bedell, Max Rajcic, Zack Showalter, Quinn Matthews, Brycen Mautz, Pete Hansen, and others all represent a growing list of arms in the Cardinals' system that could give them production in the future.

With that being said, Derrick Goold had Tampa Bay Rays beat writer Marc Topkin on his podcast in August, and they talked about ways that the Rays have been at the forefront of pitching development since 2010, and how the Cardinals have been lagging behind in so many ways, not just behind the Rays, but also behind much of Major League Baseball. The Cardinals have to adapt to the times to help develop their young pitching to be the best possible versions of themselves.

Get back to be aggressive in the trade market

The Marcell Ozuna and Randy Arozarena trades were huge mistakes by the Cardinals' front office, but they cannot allow their big misses in the past to cause them to be hesitant in the trade market today. We saw how that affected them last offseason.

The Cardinals balked at trades for Sean Murphy and Pablo Lopez due to the asking prices by the Athletics and Marlins, both of whom would have been excellent additions for the Cardinals. Historically, St. Louis has made many of their franchise-defining moves through the trade market, and there will be opportunities to do so again in the near future.

If they are afraid to make a mistake, they will not be aggressive enough to pull off the deals that need to be made. Dylan Cease won't come cheap. One of the Mariners or Marlins starters won't either. Maybe there is another name that comes up soon as well. The Cardinals have plenty of assets to offer, the question is whether or not they will do it.

I'm a big believer that they need to spend big this offseason, but swinging some key trades will be essential to fixing this roster as well. From pieces that have fallen out of favor like Tyler O'Neill and Dylan Carlson, to prospect capital like Thomas Saggese, Tink Hence, Gordon Graceffo, and Tekoah Roby, and even some of their young position players like Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Tommy Edman, and Lars Nootbaar, the Cardinals need to get aggressive in moving some of these pieces to get the pitching they need.

Be realistic with how difficult it is to replace legends

Willson Contreras was faced with an impossible situation this year, having to step into the shoes of a future Hall of Famer in Yadier Molina, who is probably the best defensive catcher who has ever lived.

Filling Molina's shoes was not possible, but turning the page to a new catcher and doing so with excitement and wonder was something this organization should have been able to pull off. They should have known Contreras' strengths as a hitter and weaknesses behind the plate, and prepared him as best they could to be the best version of himself possible.

Instead, they had expectations of him that only Molina could measure up to. It's almost like the organization forgot just how much Molina did for them in terms of pre-game prep and in-game adjustments and somehow expected Contreras to be those things.

The Cardinals need to do a much better job of preparing for life after a legend leaves, so there is not a huge hole for years where players are set up for failure.

Trust your young bats

The 2024 Cardinals will be led by Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, and hopefully some free agent and trade acquisition arms as well. But the team will truly take off if the young bats are unleashed to do their thing.

Lars Nootbaar is an ascending player in today's game and has the potential to be an All-Star-level outfielder next year if he can remain healthy. He's an on-base machine who brings some pop and has a good glove as well and should be the club's leadoff hitter come Opening Day.

Nolan Gorman has 40 home run power already, and while health is a concern for him as well, he too has the ability to be an All-Star next year while mashing the baseball and playing league-average defense. He really improved as a hitter this year, and outside of a terrible stretch during the summer, was one of the Cardinals' best hitters all year long.

Brendan Donovan broke out in a big way this year, as he looked like the Cardinals' best hitter for much of the summer before having season-ending elbow surgery. What most people think of when they see Donovan is a guy who can play all over the diamond, and that brings him so much value, but he proved while being sidelined as a DH-only player that his bat is truly a difference-maker for a contending lineup.

And then there's Jordan Walker, who took a little while to get going, but now looks ready to be a star in 2024 after working through some swing changes and making massive strides defensively. He's the most exciting young player of the bunch, with true top-end player talent, and could be in the middle of the Cardinals' lineup here soon.

I didn't even mention guys like Tommy Edman, Masyn Winn, Thomas Saggese, Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson, Victor Scot II, or Dylan Carlson who could make major impacts next year as well. I imagine a few names from this group, or even a guy like Gorman, Donovan, or Nootbaar, could be used to acquire some of the pitching help. Even if that's the case, this young position player group is deep and ready to compete, and the Cardinals need to determine who they want to roll with as regulars, empower them, and use others as trade assets to improve the rest of the club.