Kyle Gibson
If Miles Mikolas is the clear addition-by-subtraction candidate and Lance Lynn was decent at run prevention but in shorter spurts, Kyle Gibson is the guy that I was envisioning all three of those names being for them in 2024.
I was always most skeptical of Mikolas when it came to that trio, but what Gibson did this year was the exact formula we thought could win St. Louis a lot of games this year - give them a ton of starts and innings while being just average enough at run prevention that a great offense and bullpen can win the game for them.
Well, the offense did not live up to its billing this year, making Gibson a far less valuable and effective member of the rotation as a result. Sure, Gibson kept the Cardinals in games frequently, but their inability to score at a high level meant that Gibson's 4.13 ERA was not going to be good enough to win a bunch in this league.
If the Cardinals did not already have both Pallante and Fedde penciled into their rotation for next year, I think there would be a good argument to bring back Gibson on his club option. He is a solid starting pitcher and someone they can depend on, but they need to prioritize upside and/or youth with their other rotation spots, leaving Gibson as a name that just does not make sense for their rotation construction in my eyes.
I really do think Gibson would get swooped up by a contender on the open market. He has more swing-and-miss in his arsenal than many of us anticipated going into this season, and he came up big for the Cardinals on a number of occasions.
While I like Gibson a lot as a player, it makes more sense for the Cardinals to move in a new direction.