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Marlins trade package
Trevor Rogers for Dylan Carlson feels right to me. The pair finished second and third respectively in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2021, and since then, both have fallen off in major ways.
Rogers, I would argue, has more value than Carlson right now, so I do think it could take a kicker from St. Louis to pull it off. Since that 2021 campaign where he posted a 2.64 ERA in 25 starts while striking out almost 11 batters per nine innings, his swing and miss has fallen off dramatically, his velocity is down two miles per hour, and he is not nearly as effective at run prevention. Still, Rogers has made 21 starts this year and has a 4.53 ERA to show for it. While that is a back-of-the-rotation starter, that is more valuable than a bench outfielder who doesn't play.
For St. Louis, it would be a lousy way to sell the fanbase that the rotation is getting better, but it would provide them with another option for this year and the future. Rogers would be more helpful than what Carlson gives them right now, but he could not be their "answer" for the rotation in the here and now.
If the market for Carlson does not bring them any relievers of value though, it would be worth turning their attention to someone like Rogers in my opinion. We know the Cardinals do not trust their Triple-A depth arms right now, so Rogers is at least an upgrade over that.
Carlson, as he would with the White Sox, would get the chance to play every day for a bad Marlins team and see if he can revitalize his career with Skip Schumaker in South Beach. I don't believe Schumaker will be with the club after the 2024 season, so I doubt he has influence on this decision, but I do think Miami is a team that should be looking to take a flyer on Carlson for the sake of their future. They have tons of pitching that will be coming off the injured list for the 2025 season, so parlaying Rogers into an outfielder, especially after losing Jazz Chisholm Jr., would make a lot of sense.