7 players the Cardinals could select with the 7th pick in the 2024 MLB Draft

The St. Louis Cardinals are in unfamiliar territory this year as they hold the 7th overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft.

It's the first time the club has selected in the top-10 since 1998 when they drafted J.D. Drew out of Flordia State. In fact, the Cardinals have only selected higher than 18th twice since that draft. No one likes watching losing baseball, but it's one of the few silver linings fans can take from the disastrous 2023 season.

While the Cardinals look well on their way to another top-10 pick in next year's draft, for now, we are getting closer and closer to finding out who the Cardinals will select with the seventh overall pick on July 14th.

The Cardinals got unlucky during the MLB Draft Lottery this past winter, as they had the fifth-best odds of any team entering the lottery and ended up with the number seven pick. While it is still a frustrating outcome for fans of the team, as the scouting process has unfolded, there has been a consensus top eight or nine players, meaning the Cardinals should end up with an exciting talent at their pick.

Still, they won't have the pick of the litter, so they'll be at the mercy of the teams above them while they wait to grab their new top prospect. As I've scoured through draft class rankings, mock drafts, and industry feelings, I've identified seven different players who the Cardinals could draft with their first-round pick.

Let's start by crossing off a few names who won't be available when the Cardinals pick.

No way they fall to the seventh pick: Charlie Condon and Travis Bazzana

If Charlie Condon and Travis Bazzana are not selected with the first two picks in the MLB Draft, it will come as a major shock to everyone.

Sure, there's a chance that a team like the Guardians goes for an under-slot deal with the first pick in order to be aggressive later in the draft, but Condon and Bazzana have formed a clear top duo in this class, making it even more frustrating that the Cincinnati Reds jumped up from the 13th pick to 2nd overall (they had just a 0.9% chance of winning the lottery overall).

Condon is an OF/3B who has been a monster for the University of Georgia this year, jumping up to the consensus best player in this year's draft after being more like a borderline top-10 selection prior to the collegiate season. Condon leadings all of D-1 in average, slugging, OPS, home runs, extra-base hits, and total bases. He currently projects to have a 60-grade hit tool and a 70-grade power tool according to MLB.com.

I think there's a good argument that the Cardinals would have Bazzana at number one on their draft board this year. Bazzana is second basemen, but don't let that profile confuse you at all - he mashes. Bazzana is slashing .424/.589/.972 with 26 home runs and should be a plus defender at second base. All of Bazzana's tools project to be above average, with his hit, power, and speed all graded out as plus tools.

Now, let's look at the seven players the Cardinals could select with the seventh overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft

LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas

This list is in no particular order, but Hagen Smith may end up being the guy people cross their fingers for by the time the draft comes around.

Hagen is either 1A or 1B when it comes to the best starting pitcher in this year's class. We'll look at a two-way star and another collegiate arm later, but Smith has been arguably the best-starting pitcher in college this year, leading D-1 in ERA (1.65), average against (.138), and strikeout rate (17.2 per nine innings) as a southpaw.

Just watch some of his highlights, and you'll know why scouts are drooling at the idea of selecting the lefty who has struck out 150 batters in just 77 innings of work this year.

Smith has two plus pitches that could be plus-plus in his fastball and slider, with the latter being his most dominant pitch. His fastball typically sits in the mid-90s but gets up to 100 MPH when he wants to. Much like Cardinals' prospect Cooper Hjerpe, Smith has a funky delivery that makes his stuff that much more deceptive.

That deliever not only helps his fastball jump on hitters, but it's helped his slider become almost impossible to hit for lefties and highly effective against right-handed hitters. His slider sits in the mid-80s but has so much sweep and depth that it makes hitters look foolish at the plate.

Smith also throws a cutter in the low 90s and upper 80s change up to help attack batters and set up his fastball-slider combo. Smith has the kind of stuff no other starter in the Cardinals' organization boasts right now, and would immediately become the Cardinals' best pitching prospect if they were to end up with him.

While the Cardinals have drafted and acquired multiple intriguing arms in the last few seasons, they may still be inclined to add another top arm, especially with how unpredictable pitching can be. You can never have enough starting pitching in today's game, and Smith's stuff is the kind you don't come across very often. He may be able to fly through the Cardinals system and begin to have an impact in 2026 or 2027.

1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest

First-base prospects have a hard time going high in drafts due to their limited defensive upside, but when you have the kind of bat that Nick Kurtz does, it's hard to pass on that kind of talent.

Kurtz has slashed .322/.538/.816 with 21 HR and 51 RBI in 47 games for Wake Forrest this year. His power is undeniable and helped lead him to slug six home runs in a seven-at-bat stretch earlier this year.

The Cardinals should be looking to draft the best player available with their first-round pick, but it's easy to visualize how Kurtz could be their long-term replacement for the outgoing Paul Goldschmidt. Kurtz is 6-5 with a sweet left-handed stroke at the plate, and his hit tool helps his power play to all parts of the field while not being just a boom-or-bust hitter. Kurtz knows how to make the most of what a pitcher gives him, and will happily hit the ball the other way or use the gaps if that's what the pitcher gives him.

The Cardinals have developed a lot of bats in recent years, but Kurtz has the upside to be the best hitter of the bunch. Jordan Walker has the elite bat skills but has struggled to tap into his power, while Nolan Gorman has all of the power in the world but lacks that hit tool. Kurtz may be able to put both together to be a truly elite hitter in the middle of the Cardinals' order for years to come.

Kurtz draft stock, like most of the top names in this draft, is hard to pin down. I could see him being gone in the first five picks while I could also see the Cardinals passing on him if the right player is available at seven.

1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida

The prized two-way player in this year's class, Jac Caglianone is a powerful lefty both on the mound and at the plate. Let's pump the breaks on the idea of him being the next Shohei Ohtani, but he may have the best chance of any prospect at becoming a lesser version of him.

Standing at 6-5, Caglianone has 70-grade power at the plate with an above average hit tool as well. While he's got some holes in his swing and his strikeout rate is concerning, he's got the kind of power that teams dream of, and some team near the top of the draft is going to bet on that bat developing long-term. He's graded out as a 65-overall position prospect according to MLB.com, and he's likely to never drop the bat in his career.

The bigger question is whether or not Canglianone can remain on the mound, but his other 70-grade tool happens to be his fastball. He can get up to 100 MPH. He has three other pitches that project to be average in his slider, cutter, and change-up, so if one of those pitches can take a step forward, he may have a real shot at being a two-way guy. He's also already had Tommy John surgery, so you do worry a bit about elbow health long term.

Most scouts see him as a good but not great prospect as a pitcher, but the top-10 grade comes when you're looking at his bat. The Cardinals have drafted a high-upside two-way player before in Masyn Winn, but he did not get to try and do both through the system as playing shortstop and pitching is not a feasible combination. Playing first base is though.

I do think eventually, whether it's upon being drafted or sometime before reaching the big leagues, Caglianone would become a position player only. He has so much upside as a player, but I think the potential downfalls would make him a risky pick (although, every pick truly is). Depending on how the board falls, I could see the Cardinals selecting him, but I think there are multiple players on this list they'd prefer over Caglianone.

RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest

Cardinals fans who are tuned into the draft process already seem to want Chase Burns more than any other prospect, and I don't blame them at all. Ever since it looked like the Cardinals would be picking in the top 10, Burns has been near the top of my short list of players they should target, and all he's done this season is prove why he belongs there.

Remember how I said it's 1A and 1B with Hagen Smith and another pitcher in this draft? Well, Burns is that other guy. I'm still not sure who I'd give the edge to, but even though Smith has edged out Burns in the counting stats this year, boy does Burns look like a stud on the mound.

That fastball is one of the best you'll see. The strikeout above was a 100 MPH missile and the Burns consistently lives between 97 MPH and 102 MPH when throwing his fastball. When you watch his fastball, it's just different than other guys who throw that hard, and a major reason why is the incredible induced vertical break he has, which is somewhere between 23" and 24" inches. It allows that fastball to "ride" on hitters, and it's why it feels almost unhittable up in the zone.

As you can see in the graphic above, his whiff rate and chase rate are both better than that of Paul Skenes last year at that time. He's not the same level of prospect that Skenes was, but that's really good company to be in. His fastball whiff rate and slider whiff rates compare favorably to top pitchers in today's game (although against collegiate competition).

Speaking of that slider, for all the praise I just gave to his fastball, his slider is usually seen as his best pitch. That is what makes Burns so incredible as a prospect. Not only can he attack hitters with a special fastball, but his slider sits in the upper 80s and makes hitters look lost at the plate. His curveball is also a plus pitch, giving Burns two potential plus-plus offerings in his fastball and slider, a plus pitch in his low-80s curveball, and his average changeup that sits in the upper-80s.

The two biggest concerns with Burns have to be his control and durability. His stuff just seems like the kind that can lend itself to injuries and wild style of pitching, although so far, Burns has kept both concerns in check.

I think if he made me choose a dream guy at number seven for the Cardinals, I would choose Burns. Smith is a very close second to me, but Burns just seems like a special prospect. The next guy on this list is my favorite position player that may be available at number seven.

SS Bryce Rainer, Havard-Westlake (CA)

The lone high school prospect on my list, Bryce Rainer is usually ranked below prep player Konnor Griffin on prospect lists, but according to Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline, if the Cardinals went high school player with their pick, it would be Rainer, not Griffin.

Rainer, like most of the top bats in this class, is a left-handed hitter but unlike the other position players I have discussed, Rainer seems like a lock to stick at a premium defensive position in shortstop.

Rainer has flown up draft boards in recent months due to his big frame and massive room for growth. He's got the kind of frame of guys like Corey Seager and top prospect Colson Montgomery, which may be too difficult for teams to pass on.

He has the potential to be a plus four-plus tools with his glove joining the mix as well if he were to move to third base. He has above-average defensive potential due to his plus arm at shortstop, but he could be a truly elite defender if he was at the hot corner. He has shown the ability to hit the ball to all areas of the field and is one of the top prep players in terms of exit velocity.

The Cardinals have had success going prep bats in recent drafts with guys like Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, and Nolan Gorman, so maybe they will dip their toe in those waters again. I do think there are other players they'd prioritize though, and even if they want a bat at a more premium position, this last college bat I'm going to talk about would fit the bill.

OF Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M

The Cardinals seem to be a well-oiled machine when it comes to producing high-level outfielders (Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker) even if many of them go on to find success elsewhere (Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena, Tyler O'Neill, and Richie Palacios). Braden Montgomery has all the tools to be the best of the bunch.

I'm starting to doubt Montgomery will be available when the Cardinals pick at number seven, but it is more likely he is than guys like Condon or Bazzana. Montgomery is a switch-hitting outfielder who crushed baseballs. Coming out of high school, he was more of a hit-first player, but his power has developed so much that it has overtaken his hit tool. He hits for more power from the left side but his bat plays from both sides.

He has spent time on the mound during his college career, pumping 96 MPH in the zone with nice breaking stuff as well. He'll profile as just an outfielder in professional baseball though, but that dynamic arm gives him a cannon in right field, where he likely projects long-term.

He's a pretty good runner and fielder as well, and if his hit tool can catch up to his power tool, he'll be a very dangerous player for years to come.

It's hard to imagine all six teams above the Cardinals passing on Montgomery with the kind of superstar potential he has. But if he fell to the Cardinals at seven, they'd have a very tough time passing on him. The Cardinals took another high-upside, power-hitting corner outfield bat out of college in Chase Davis last year, but Montgomery's potential is on another level.

Again, of course, the Cardinals wish they were picking higher than they are, but the sheer number of intriguing players at the top of this class means St. Louis will have a very exciting prospect available to them when they are selecting.