7 moves the Cardinals could potentially make before Thanksgiving

The offseason in Major League Baseball tends to take a while to develop. The St. Louis Cardinals have an opportunity to break that trend to an extent.

The Cardinals are reportedly interested in "jumping the market", acquiring one of their starting pitchers early on in the offseason before the dominos really start to fall. Now, there has to be interest on both sides for deals to get done right now, but I think there are a few different names we could see the Cardinals finalize a deal for or with over the coming week.

With how the market has started to develop in recent weeks, the idea of the Cardinals jumping the market seems more and more intersting to me. There's a real chance the bidding wars for many of the top arms get out of control in December, and while the Cardinals should be aggressive in that bidding too, securing at least their number two starter in the coming week would be a huge relief. It also would allow the Cardinals the chance to gameplan better for which number one starter to go after, knowing what they have to work with after their first move.

Historically, you do not really see many moves happening before Thanksgiving, outside of non-tenders, smaller contracts, and 40-man roster shakeups. Now, catch the right player at the right time, and a deal can happen soon.

Now, these aren't going to be massive names more than likely. Most big names wait until at least the Winter Meeting to really get rolling on making deals happen. But if the player has significant family interests driving their decision, or the team needs to move off of a player, impactful signings or trades can happen before the holiday.

These things are hard to predict since there are so many factors that go into when deals go down, but I think these 8 moves have a higher chance of happening for the Cardinals in the coming week than most of the other moves they have been linked to.

Tyler Glasnow

It's been widely reported now that the Tampa Bay Rays are expected to move Tyler Glasnow this offseason, and the Cardinals' interest in Glasnow is also well known.

While teams typically take their time when shopping high-end talent like Glasnow, a major part of the Rays' motivation to move on from Glasnow is to free up money from their payroll this offseason. If they want to use any of that money to go after free-agent targets, then they'd ideally have a deal in place sooner rather than later.

A lot of talk has been about the Cardinals jumping the market in terms of landing an early free agent, but they could do the same thing through the trade market instead. For St. Louis, acquiring Glasnow in the next week checks one top-end starter off their to-do list and allows them to narrow down their focus a bit more with other potential free agents and trades, having a better idea of what their budget would be.

I also think the Cardinals are uniquely positioned to pull this off while other teams may not want to pull the trigger yet. Teams like the Dodgers and Braves, who have also been linked to Glasnow, likely want to see what the markets for Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Nola, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray look like before making quick decisions, and the Cardinals could take advantage of that.

Glasnow's trade value is really hard to pin down, but I provided three updated trade packages recently coming out of the GM Meetings. The Rays won't be able to ask for a ton in return for him, but I would imagine an MLB-ready bat like Alec Burleson, Tyler O'Neill, or Dylan Carlson plus a pitching prospect would be the basis for a deal. Tommy Edman could even be used in a swap as well.

The Rays are going to want to replenish their pitching staff through free agency like other clubs, so freeing up cash immediately so they can go after guys like Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Eduardo Rodriguez, or whoever they see as a fit would be huge for their offseason plans.

Sonny Gray

The name that is most consistently brough up with the Cardinals, and especially when it comes to a potential early signing, is Sonny Gray.

If you've read any of my work, you know I am a big fan of Gray, especially due to the short-term contract and lower AAV than other starters will be getting on the market. Don't get me wrong, I want the Cardinals to get a starter who is better than Gray as well, but seriously, Gray is an awesome pitcher.

Gray finished second in the American League Cy Young voting this year after posting a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings of work for the Twins. Gray has been one of the most underrated players in baseball for a long time now, and even though he's about to get paid, it won't be nearly as much as the other top arms.

RA9-WAR is one of the best stats out there for measuring a pitcher's value. as it calculates a pitcher's war based on their runs allowed per nine innings rather than FIP. Gray posted a 6.1 RA9-WAR in 2023, which was third in baseball behind the Cy Young winners Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole. If you go by fWAR, he was tied for third in baseball, behind Zack Wheeler, Spencer Strider, and Kevin Gausman. That is elite company Gray finds himself in.

Why would Gray sign early? Well, he wants to get paid, but he also values being closer to home (Nashville, Tennessee) and being "wanted" by the organization he signs with. St. Louis can fulfill all three of those desires with an aggressive offer before Thanksgiving.

This would provide Gray and his family with certainty about where he will be playing for the next three or four years before the holidays, which is something I'm sure Gray would love to have figured out. He's not going to take a discount to sign early, but if the Cardinals make a fair and aggressive offer now, I think there's a strong chance they get a deal done.

Yuki Matsui

Not that long ago, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported (subscription required) that the Cardinals were interested in signing star Japanese closer Yuki Matsui to bolster their bullpen. Their interest has been reported multiple times, and this could be a quick move they make in the coming week.

Why would they sign a reliever before getting their rotation in order? Well first, their bullpen is also in need of help, so it's a big need they would be filing if they pulled it off. Matsui has been excellent in Japan for a number of years now and would provide the Cardinals with another option for high-leverage situations.

Second, the Cardinals front office will be multi-tasking all offseason, and if they are able to get Matsui to commit to a deal early, there is no reason to wait. Who knows? Maybe it even helps their pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

There is a lot of interest in Matsui around the league, but his market should not turn into a huge bidding war. His contract will be in the kind of tier where he can sign early without worrying about leaving future money on the table by jumping the market.

I think this move is possible, but I also would not be surprised to see the Cardinals prioritize starting pitching, or other organizational moves, between now and Thanksgiving.

Shane Bieber

A former Cy Young winner, Shane Bieber has fallen off significantly from where he was even just a year ago, but his floor is still a very solid starter in this league, and I'd have to imagine he could regain some of his former self as well.

Even if he cannot regain his velocity, Bieber showed in 2022 that he can pitch at a high level with diminished velocity and strikeout rates. He cannot be relied upon as a top-of-the-rotatoin starter anymore, but he'd be a great number three or could potentially mask as a number two.

Similar to the Rays, the Guardians will likely want to move off Bieber early this offseason in order to free up salary from their books. The Guardians are going to want to upgrade their offense, so a deal involving Tyler O'Neill or Dylan Carlson makes a ton of sense.

Obviously, Bieber isn't the most exciting starter they could acquire. But if they could acquire him at a low price point and ensure they have already made one of their pitching upgrades, it could be worth grabbing a starter soon.

It's not for certain that the Guardians are moving Bieber, but it would make a lot of sense for the Cardinals and to swing a deal if they can in the coming days.

Michael Wacha

After an exciting start to his career with the Cardinals, Michael Wacha struggled with injuries and fell off from his trajectory as a future leader of the Cardinals' staff.

After a really bad stint with the Mets and the Rays, Wacha experienced a career revival with the Red Sox, and continued the trend in 2023 with the Padres, posting a 3.22 ERA in 134.1 innings of work.

Wacha is unlikely to give a team more than 150 innings to a team any given season, but he's regained the kind of form that could really help the Cardinals' rotatoin. Like Bieber, he's not a top-two starter for their rotation. but he can be more than adequate as their number three next year.

Perhaps a return to St. Louis would be a welcomed move from both sides, and with the familiarity between them, perhaps a deal can happen soon.

My worry with jumping the market for a guy like Wacha is you may end up overpaying for a middle-of-the-rotation starter. I don't mind being aggressive for a potential front-end starter, but throwing extra money at a starter with a low ceiling is asking for trouble.

Adding an outside voice to the front office

It was reported a few weeks ago that the Cardinals were interested in bringing in former Red Sox executive Chaim Bloom to fill an advisory role with the club. Since then, Mozeliak has confirmed that the organization has had conversations with various outside voices who could come into the Cardinals to provide fresh views perspectives.

Bloom, specifically, is a very interesting candidate due to his immense success in helping the Tampa Bay Rays become the class of baseball at developing pitching. The Cardinals desperately need help revamping in this area, and Bloom could lead the charge there.

Even if Bloom is not the guy they decide to bring in, getting someone who has experience with another organization would be a welcomed change for St. Louis. The continuity they have built in their front office is admirable, but it allows thinking to grow stale and makes it easier to "fall behind the times".

Like Molina, this move feels like something they could pull off any day now, as I am sure any executive interested in a role with St. Louis would like to have that ironed out before Thanksgiving. It would also be important for St. Louis to get this done quickly, as it allows that voice to have a seat at the table as they begin to make moves this offseason.

Once again, most moves tend to be delayed until December or January within the game of baseball, but there are players, teams, coaches, and executives who would love to have their future figured out before the holidays. We'll see if the Cardinals can capitalize on any of that.