5. Do not bring back Paul Goldschmidt, platoon first base
I'm not in the camp that the Cardinals cannot bring back Paul Goldschmidt under any circumstances like some are. He has been better toward the end of this season, and his numbers even look okay since that famous May 12th date when the Cardinals started to fight their way back to contention. But if we are being honest, saving the money on Goldschmidt's contract and finding production elsewhere could be huge for this team.
Goldschmidt is still highly effective against left-handed pitching, which in theory makes him a great platoon partner with Alec Burleson next year. But Goldschmidt's defense is also really good, and Burleson remains unproven there. I do think Goldschmidt could be a valuable regular for St. Louis next year, but there is really no guarantee of that.
Let's take a second and run through all of the roster adjustments needed for next year. The Cardinals are likely taking a step back in payroll (by how much though is a real question), which already points to the potential benefit of letting Goldschmidt's $26 million salary roll off the books. Even if the Cardinals also shave salary by parting ways with different starting pitchers, they still need to account for arbitration raises and the $15 million increase in Gray's salary next year.
The Cardinals also reportedly want to bring in a "tent-pole" bat this offseason, likely via trade. They'll need to place him in the lineup somewhere. Whether that is first base or not, it will impact other players on the roster and that position as a whole.
So we once again revisit the idea of bringing back Paul Goldschmidt. If he is not that tent-pole bat (which he should not be seen as that), then how does a reunion make all that much sense without it being a tremendous discount? I'm talking a $10 million salary at most.
Instead, maybe the Cardinals should be looking at a platoon of Burleson and Luken Baker at first base next year. Now, I've been on the record multiple times saying I think it's premature to assume the pair can handle that in 2025, but if they are cutting payroll, they'll have to take risks at some positions. First base might be one of them.
We also aren't talking about the Cardinals' replacing an All-Star-level bat with a pair of unknowns. Goldschmidt, even with his recent hot stretch, is just 1% above league average at the plate this year, while Alec Burleson has posted a 109 wRC+ in 539 plate appearances. It is concerning to me that Burleson is struggling so much during the second half, but again, he's going to be dirt cheap next year salary-wise.
Baker is still very unproven, but his strength should be hitting left-handed pitching, Burleson's greatest weakness at the plate. The pair make sense in theory to platoon, but the results are relatively unknown (especially defensively).
The Cardinals could also bring in a cheap veteran to help out at first base, or maybe that trade they make this offseason could bring in a first baseman. Regardless, if the Cardinals are going to get better on a smaller payroll next year, that probably means Goldschmidt needs to go.