6 ways the Cardinals should get creative this offseason if there is a smaller payroll

5 of 6

The St. Louis Cardinals seem to be heading toward an offseason where they will be looking to cut back on payroll, rather than add to it. I'm not defending that, but it seems to be the reality we are working with.

While I think fans deserve better than that from this organization after letting them down for years now, I do want to point out that spending more money does not make the team better. Spending money wisely does. Yes, it would 100% help if the Cardinals invested more in their payroll, not less, but this whole conversation on the direction of the Cardinals' payroll made me want to think of outside-the-box ways they could improve without raising their investments.

If the Cardinals are going to go in the direction of a Chaim Bloom this offseason, it makes you wonder how he could potentially help maximize talent in the organization as well as target quality moves at whatever dollar amount they are able to spend. Bloom was famously part of the front office that turned the Rays into a consistent contender with one of the smallest payrolls in baseball, so it stands to reason that he could use those same principles with a much larger payroll in St. Louis, even if it were to go down some.

Frankly, we've also seen other organizations around the game find success with significantly fewer payroll dollars than the Cardinals. The Cleveland Guardians are one of the best teams in baseball this year and, according to FanGraphs, spent $80 million less than the Cardinals did on payroll this year. The Milwaukee Brewers, who continue to run the NL Central year after year, have spent about $67 million less on their payroll than St. Louis has.

Please do not read this as me advocating for the Cardinals to spend less, that couldn't be further from my thought process. But what I am advocating is that the Cardinals begin to adopt practices that these well-run organizations have implemented, but do so with the added bonus of $60m-$80m more to spend on payroll. I won't throw a fit if there is a slight decrease in payroll this offseason, but it better be headed back in the right direction in 2026 and beyond if it does.

Again, I do want to see the Cardinals spend more, but today I wanted to take a look at some moves that I think they could make that would make them a better team in 2025, and would not require them to increase payroll to do so.

Here are 6 ways the Cardinals should get creative this offseason if there is a smaller payroll

1. Invest in organizational infrastructure to maximize player development

In all honesty, this story should be titled "6 ways the Cardinals should get creative this offseason, regardless of how much they spend on payroll". Part of the reason I didn't do that was because I would add more moves that require more dollars spent, but today I wanted to focus on cost-cutting measures that actually benefit the team.

This first creative move is just a no-brainer in my opinion. The organization has to take Chaim Bloom's recommendations to heart and make the necessary changes to catch up with the rest of baseball, and eventually get back to being an organization that is on the cutting edge of how things are done.

This is something fans don't give the current Cardinals' regime enough credit for back in the early 2010s (although there are significant executives who have left since then that played a major role), but it is most definitely one of the fairest critiques of Cardinals' in recent years. They used to be one of the leading organizations in baseball when it came to player development, and lately, they have been lagging behind in a major way.

That's not to say that things aren't already getting better, though. I find it fascinating that since Chaim Bloom came into the fold this offseason, the Cardinals' pitching development specifically has seemed to take major strides this year. Now, there are still a lot of fair critiques, but I do not think it's a coincidence that a guy like Quinn Mathews has excelled the way he has this year.

In fact, the Cardinals were just ranked the third-best farm system in all of baseball by MiLB Pipeline when it comes to pitching prospects. I about fell out of my seat when I first read that. For an organization that has been so starved and devoid of young pitching, the fact they are top three in the sport right now tells me that things have taken a significant turn.

It just goes to show how impactful (or detrimental) organizational infrastructure and investments can be when it comes to player development. Investing more dollars here, even at the expense of payroll, could go a long way for the health of the organization.

2. Try to trade Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz, decline options on Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson

Talk about addition by subtraction, the Cardinals' rotation would take a step forward tomorrow if they finally called it quits on the Miles Mikolas experience.

This offseason, the Cardinals should be on the phones looking for any takes for Miles Mikolas. There is no way they are able to move his entire contract, but any money they can save on his deal by sending him elsewhere and eating a large portion of it would be beneficial to both sides. Mikolas is just bad, plain and simple. Maybe he gets back on track somewhere else, but the Cardinals do not need his 5.55 ERA in their rotation next year.

It's worth noting that the Cardinals have salary-dumped guys before, with two recent examples being Mike Leake and Dexter Fowler. Mikolas only having one year remaining on his deal should allow for some kind of suitor this offseason, even if it means eating 80% of the contract or attaching a lower-end prospect to the deal. Frankly, if they can't find a match, it would just be best for both sides to release Mikolas. He is not someone who can slide into a bullpen role, and I see no reason for him to be a rotation option for St. Louis next year.

Steven Matz, on the other hand, I don't think they have to trade or release, but they should explore it just as thoroughly as they should with Mikolas. Matz at least has the potential to be a bullpen piece for them next year if needed, so I don't really see the point in releasing him. If they can offload his entire salary for 2025 ($12.5 million) or a significant portion of it, go for it. But if not, might as well stick him in the bullpen and see what happens.

Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson both have $12 million player options for 2025 with $1 million buyouts. This means the Cardinals can save $22 million just by simply declining their club options and paying the $1 million buyouts. While Lynn and Gibson both aren't bad values at $12 million, the Cardinals have too many young arms that could probably give them similar or better production, so why not give them a shot?

Let's say the Cardinals decline both of those options, save half of Matz's contract in a trade, and eat 70% of Mikolas' contract in another deal, the Cardinals would be saving roughly $34 million in salary next year by letting go of those four arms. That's a lot of dollars and not much production being lost.

The Cardinals already have Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, and Andre Pallante lined up for the rotation next year. While they’d still have two rotation spots to fill, they could allow young arms like Quinn Mathews, Michael McGreevy, Matthew Liberatore, Gordon Graceffo, Adam Kloffenstein, and Sem Robberse to fight for those spots as well. I even have a dark horse rotation candidate I’m going to propose in my next creative move.

Again, I’m not saying Lynn or Gibson have been bad this year. They’ve actually done their jobs. Lynn sneakily has a sub-4.00 ERA this year while Gibson is sitting at a 4.20 ERA but has been eating innings. The problem is that the Cardinals already have two back-of-the-rotation-type arms in Fedde and Pallante, and with all those other young arms as well, they don’t need to pay $12m or $24m to keep one of both of them around.

What the Cardinals should do, even if they are cutting back payroll a bit, is target a second front-line starter to pair with Sonny Gray. That could come through free agency or a trade, but that, along with the removal of Mikolas, could raise this rotation’s floor and ceiling significantly.

Then, those six arms are fighting for the fifth starter spot and then to be the next man up when an injury occurs. I feel pretty darn good about that as a plan for the Cardinals, and they should be moving in that direction too.

3. Convert Ryan Helsley to a starting pitcher

I know Ryan Helsley has been an awesome closer for the Cardinals over the last few seasons, and yes their bullpen would take a hit if they went in this direction, but why not try Helsley out as a starter and see what happens?

Helsley came up through the system as a starter but then ended up finding his way into the Cardinals' bullpen, and they haven't looked back since. Helsley has some of the best stuff in the game, and if he were stretched out this offseason, he could have a major impact on turning the Cardinals around in a hurry.

The Jordan Hicks experience for the San Francisco Giants came with some mixed results this year, starting off really strong but has ended with him being a dominant reliever for them after falling apart later as a starter. Even so, we've seen multiple high-level relievers from 2023 be transformed into elite starters this year in the cases of Reynaldo Lopez and Garrett Crochet. We've also seen starters like Seth Lugo and Michael King succeed this year after being converted the year prior.

What is the best-case scenario if the Cardinals tried this with Helsley? They have their own version of Lugo, Lopez, Crochet, or King on their hands. Worst-case? They move him back to the bullpen like the Giants did with Hicks, and I'm sure Helsley will be able to adjust back to closing life just fine.

For as valuable as Helsley is as a reliever, the value he could provide to the Cardinals as a reliever would go much further. Even if you are not a fan of fWAR (or WAR in general), just take a look at where Helsley ranks among all of those arms I just mentioned.

Seth Lugo (4.4 fWAR)
Garrett Crochet (3.9 fWAR)
Michael King (3.6 fWAR)
Reynaldo Lopez (3.1 fWAR)
Ryan Helsley (2.0 fWAR)
Jordan Hicks (0.4 fWAR)

Helsley is putting together a dominant season as a closer this year, and it still lags in comparison to what other guys are doing in the rotation. Even Helsley's incredible 2022 campaign where he posted a 1.25 ERA and 13.08 K/9 resulted in just a 2.0 fWAR season for him. I'm not trying to act like closers are not valuable, but if you think Helsley can start games for you, he just became even more valuable, especially to a team that lacks dynamic starters.

Taking a look at Helsley's profile as a pitcher, multiple things lead me to believe he could find success as a starting pitcher. First, we've seen Helsley evolve from a primary fastball guy (he threw it 57% of the time in 2022 and 56% of the time in 2023), to actually throwing his slider more often in 2024 (48% usage on his slider vs. 46% usage on his fastball). Helsley is not a one-trick pony reliever who relies too much on his high velocity to win the day, his slider is actually his best pitch.

I do have some concerns about how his fastball has played this year, as the xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA are all way up from 2022 and 2023 on his fastball. He'll need to be a bit more effective with his fastball if he is going to be stretched out, but there's not much in his fastball profile that leads me to believe he can't rebound there. Helsley will also need to work in his curveball and probably bring back his changeup, which we just won't know the results of that until it happens.

This might sound obvious, but Helsley has just been straight-up dominant in his outings as a reliever, so even if he takes a half step back in some of his production for the sake of length, he could be a phenomenal starter. In 2024, Helsley ranks in the 97th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, fastball velocity, Whiff%, and K%, while ranking in the 91st percentile in Chase%. Basically, Helsley is among the best 1% or 9% in baseball in the things that make a pitcher great.

Walks are something Helsley would need to cut down on (8.4% walk rate), and I'd be curious to see if he does so just by staying in the zone a bit more to be more efficient. Overall, Helsley has so many pieces in his profile that point to him potentially being a great starter.

Again, what's the risk here? Sure, you could trade Helsley this offseason for a nice package of prospects, but wouldn't you rather see if he can be a front-line starter for you? Even just a dynamic number three? I'd rather see what I have in Helsley before I ship him elsewhere. And again, if it does poorly, there is nothing stopping the Cardinals from putting him right back in the bullpen. And I promise you there'll still be a valuable trade package at next year's deadline waiting for him.

Let's say the Helsley experiment works and he's somewhere in between Michael King and Reynaldo Lopez, the Cardinals rotation just got a whole love better. What if they also went out and got that number two type of starter in a trade or free agency? Man, that rotation is now one of the better in baseball. Heck, what if Quinn Mathews is good? Or do any of the other young arms show something?

See how getting creative can help this team out? I say try Helsley as a starter and see what happens.

4. Continue to build the bullpen with the same strategies they used this past offseason

Even if the Cardinals' bullpen was a mess right now, I'd be wanting to see Helsley start games next year. Why? Because relievers are volatile and starting pitching is more valuable. But I will say, it does help that I see a lot of interesting arms in the Cardinals' organization that could fill out this bullpen in Helsley's absence.

I did just point out how hit-or-miss bullpens can be, but I'd have to think that some combination of Ryan Fernandez, JoJo Romero, Matthew Liberatore, John King, and Keynan Middleton (assuming they pick up his option) will be effective next year. The Cardinals already saved $6 million for next year by cutting Giovanny Gallegos, so maybe they bring back Andrew Kittredge on a similar deal.

Okay, so there are six options right off the bat. I would then highly encourage the Cardinals to do what they did last offseason and bring in a bunch of low-cost, high-reward arms in trades, free agency, and the Rule 5 draft. Some will miss (like Nick Robertson and Riley O'Brien) but others will hit (like Ryan Fernandez and Andrew Kittredge). That tends to be the best way to build a bullpen.

Remember all of those starting pitching options I named earlier? Well, not all of them can start, so maybe names like Graceffo, Kloffenstein, or McGreevy find themselves in the bullpen. Maybe O'Brien, Kyle Leahy, or Chris Roycroft take steps forward. I could also totally see a Tink Hence or Cooper Hjerpe getting some work out of the bullpen in 2025 as well.

Here's my point - I think the Cardinals can build a really nice bullpen next year, even if they remove Helsley from the group and don't add significant salary to that portion of the roster. Also, imagine how much stress the Cardinals could take off their bullpen next year if they improve their rotation and lineup as well. It's kind of amazing how strong their relievers have been this year (and healthy for that matter) while being taxed as much as they have been.

I can't tell you which of those relievers will implode next year, but it is bound to happen. Some of them could take steps forward though too. But overall, I think the Cardinals have the tools internally, mixed with some low-cost dart throws this offseason, to have a strong bullpen again in 2025 and experiment with Helsley in the rotation.

5. Do not bring back Paul Goldschmidt, platoon first base

I'm not in the camp that the Cardinals cannot bring back Paul Goldschmidt under any circumstances like some are. He has been better toward the end of this season, and his numbers even look okay since that famous May 12th date when the Cardinals started to fight their way back to contention. But if we are being honest, saving the money on Goldschmidt's contract and finding production elsewhere could be huge for this team.

Goldschmidt is still highly effective against left-handed pitching, which in theory makes him a great platoon partner with Alec Burleson next year. But Goldschmidt's defense is also really good, and Burleson remains unproven there. I do think Goldschmidt could be a valuable regular for St. Louis next year, but there is really no guarantee of that.

Let's take a second and run through all of the roster adjustments needed for next year. The Cardinals are likely taking a step back in payroll (by how much though is a real question), which already points to the potential benefit of letting Goldschmidt's $26 million salary roll off the books. Even if the Cardinals also shave salary by parting ways with different starting pitchers, they still need to account for arbitration raises and the $15 million increase in Gray's salary next year.

The Cardinals also reportedly want to bring in a "tent-pole" bat this offseason, likely via trade. They'll need to place him in the lineup somewhere. Whether that is first base or not, it will impact other players on the roster and that position as a whole.

So we once again revisit the idea of bringing back Paul Goldschmidt. If he is not that tent-pole bat (which he should not be seen as that), then how does a reunion make all that much sense without it being a tremendous discount? I'm talking a $10 million salary at most.

Instead, maybe the Cardinals should be looking at a platoon of Burleson and Luken Baker at first base next year. Now, I've been on the record multiple times saying I think it's premature to assume the pair can handle that in 2025, but if they are cutting payroll, they'll have to take risks at some positions. First base might be one of them.

We also aren't talking about the Cardinals' replacing an All-Star-level bat with a pair of unknowns. Goldschmidt, even with his recent hot stretch, is just 1% above league average at the plate this year, while Alec Burleson has posted a 109 wRC+ in 539 plate appearances. It is concerning to me that Burleson is struggling so much during the second half, but again, he's going to be dirt cheap next year salary-wise.

Baker is still very unproven, but his strength should be hitting left-handed pitching, Burleson's greatest weakness at the plate. The pair make sense in theory to platoon, but the results are relatively unknown (especially defensively).

The Cardinals could also bring in a cheap veteran to help out at first base, or maybe that trade they make this offseason could bring in a first baseman. Regardless, if the Cardinals are going to get better on a smaller payroll next year, that probably means Goldschmidt needs to go.

6. Finally clear up the logjam of young bats they have to make an upgrade or strengthen their farm system

Let's say the Cardinals are serious about adding this "tent-pole" bat that Derrick Goold mentioned in his chat recently. That bat would be joining Nolan Areando, Willson Contreras, Masyn Winn, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese, Alec Burleson, Luken Baker, Ivan Herrera, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Pedro Pages, Victor Scott II, and Michael Siani as guys looking for playing time in 2025.

The Cardinals have run into this issue for three seasons now. They keep coming into each season with more bats than roster spots available, and they somehow manage to damage the development of most of them in the process. It's time for the Cardinals to "choose" who they want to lead their offense in 2025, and they trade the others or make them clear secondary pieces.

Ivan Herrera, for example, is someone that the Cardinals have no options remaining on, so they cannot go back and forth on how they feel about him next year. If they do not trust him going into the offseason, then they need to trade him.

Nolan Gorman took a huge step back this year in his development. Do they see if he can rebound next season or use him to make a deal? Sure, his value is lower, but it's not driven into the dirt yet like they did with Tyler O'Neill and Dylan Carlson.

What about Lars Nootbaar? He continues to show a lot of promise when he's healthy, but he did take a step back production-wise and was once again injury-riddled this season. Do they trust him to man one of the corners for them in 2025?

Alec Burleson is coming off an encouraging year, but he did regress significantly in the second half. Do they finally "sell high" on a young bat? Or do they trust Burleson's development enough to continue to hone his skills and be a very valuable piece moving forward?

The Cardinals need to answer those questions, but they really can't afford to use 2025 as the way they figure that out unless they are fully committed to "letting the kids play" next year. If they give those names room to fail next year, then it really could be valuable for them to see what they have in their young talent.

But, if they are intent on adding a bat via trade, or even want to make a pitching upgrade on the trade market, they have to trade something to get that, and my guess is that some of that value would come from that long list of names I started out with.

This probably needs to be the offseason when the Cardinals finally do some housecleaning with their young bats. Frankly, the offense as a whole has underperformed for two straight seasons now. Shaking things up makes a lot of sense for a multitude of reasons.

manual

Home / St Louis Cardinals Rumors