6 ways the Cardinals should get creative this offseason if there is a smaller payroll

3. Convert Ryan Helsley to a starting pitcher

I know Ryan Helsley has been an awesome closer for the Cardinals over the last few seasons, and yes their bullpen would take a hit if they went in this direction, but why not try Helsley out as a starter and see what happens?

Helsley came up through the system as a starter but then ended up finding his way into the Cardinals' bullpen, and they haven't looked back since. Helsley has some of the best stuff in the game, and if he were stretched out this offseason, he could have a major impact on turning the Cardinals around in a hurry.

The Jordan Hicks experience for the San Francisco Giants came with some mixed results this year, starting off really strong but has ended with him being a dominant reliever for them after falling apart later as a starter. Even so, we've seen multiple high-level relievers from 2023 be transformed into elite starters this year in the cases of Reynaldo Lopez and Garrett Crochet. We've also seen starters like Seth Lugo and Michael King succeed this year after being converted the year prior.

What is the best-case scenario if the Cardinals tried this with Helsley? They have their own version of Lugo, Lopez, Crochet, or King on their hands. Worst-case? They move him back to the bullpen like the Giants did with Hicks, and I'm sure Helsley will be able to adjust back to closing life just fine.

For as valuable as Helsley is as a reliever, the value he could provide to the Cardinals as a reliever would go much further. Even if you are not a fan of fWAR (or WAR in general), just take a look at where Helsley ranks among all of those arms I just mentioned.

1. Seth Lugo (4.4 fWAR)
2. Garrett Crochet (3.9 fWAR)
3. Michael King (3.6 fWAR)
4. Reynaldo Lopez (3.1 fWAR)
5. Ryan Helsley (2.0 fWAR)
6. Jordan Hicks (0.4 fWAR)

Helsley is putting together a dominant season as a closer this year, and it still lags in comparison to what other guys are doing in the rotation. Even Helsley's incredible 2022 campaign where he posted a 1.25 ERA and 13.08 K/9 resulted in just a 2.0 fWAR season for him. I'm not trying to act like closers are not valuable, but if you think Helsley can start games for you, he just became even more valuable, especially to a team that lacks dynamic starters.

Taking a look at Helsley's profile as a pitcher, multiple things lead me to believe he could find success as a starting pitcher. First, we've seen Helsley evolve from a primary fastball guy (he threw it 57% of the time in 2022 and 56% of the time in 2023), to actually throwing his slider more often in 2024 (48% usage on his slider vs. 46% usage on his fastball). Helsley is not a one-trick pony reliever who relies too much on his high velocity to win the day, his slider is actually his best pitch.

I do have some concerns about how his fastball has played this year, as the xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA are all way up from 2022 and 2023 on his fastball. He'll need to be a bit more effective with his fastball if he is going to be stretched out, but there's not much in his fastball profile that leads me to believe he can't rebound there. Helsley will also need to work in his curveball and probably bring back his changeup, which we just won't know the results of that until it happens.

This might sound obvious, but Helsley has just been straight-up dominant in his outings as a reliever, so even if he takes a half step back in some of his production for the sake of length, he could be a phenomenal starter. In 2024, Helsley ranks in the 97th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, fastball velocity, Whiff%, and K%, while ranking in the 91st percentile in Chase%. Basically, Helsley is among the best 1% or 9% in baseball in the things that make a pitcher great.

Walks are something Helsley would need to cut down on (8.4% walk rate), and I'd be curious to see if he does so just by staying in the zone a bit more to be more efficient. Overall, Helsley has so many pieces in his profile that point to him potentially being a great starter.

Again, what's the risk here? Sure, you could trade Helsley this offseason for a nice package of prospects, but wouldn't you rather see if he can be a front-line starter for you? Even just a dynamic number three? I'd rather see what I have in Helsley before I ship him elsewhere. And again, if it does poorly, there is nothing stopping the Cardinals from putting him right back in the bullpen. And I promise you there'll still be a valuable trade package at next year's deadline waiting for him.

Let's say the Helsley experiment works and he's somewhere in between Michael King and Reynaldo Lopez, the Cardinals rotation just got a whole love better. What if they also went out and got that number two type of starter in a trade or free agency? Man, that rotation is now one of the better in baseball. Heck, what if Quinn Mathews is good? Or do any of the other young arms show something?

See how getting creative can help this team out? I say try Helsley as a starter and see what happens.