6 relievers the Cardinals need to target on the trade market

John Brebbia, White Sox

A former Cardinal himself, John Brebbia appears to be a name that the Cardinals have been interested in a reunion with for a while, and continue to be as this season goes along. Luckily enough for them, the White Sox appear to be the clearest seller candidates in all of baseball.

Let's start with the bad. If you haven't kept up with Brebbia this year, and I wouldn't blame you with how the White Sox are playing, one quick search will show you that he has posted a 6.65 ERA in 21.2 innings of work for the White Sox this year. I don't think anyone will try and tell you it's been a good year, but assuming he's going to cost almost nothing to acquire, there are some intriguing numbers under the hood that suggest he could have more success as the year goes on.

Brebbia has a good strikeout percentage that sits at 27.4%, so we are not looking at a guy who can't miss bats. He's among the best in baseball at getting hitters to chase outside the zone, sitting in the 87th percentile, mostly as a result of using his slider low and away. Brebbia hasn't allowed many walks this year either, so he's not beating himself with those either.

Brebbia's FIP and xFIP are also much more promising than his ERA would suggest, sitting a 4.25 and 3.34 respectively. Brebbia has seen a big uptick in his HR/FB rate this year, which is at a career-high 17.4% after sitting at 11.1% last year. He's actually been better at inducing ground balls this year than he has in years past, so the combination of ground balls with the Cardinals' defense and a really good strikeout rate could help him become a solid middle reliever for St. Louis.

Another interesting part of this equation for the Cardinals is the fact that the White Sox seem to have an openness to bringing in former Cardinals, so a trade with St. Louis may make sense for them. Jeff Jones pointed out on the Dealin the Cards podcast that the White Sox were eager to bring in Brebbia, Paul DeJong, Jake Woodford, and Tommy Pham recently, and a number of other Cardinals have played for Chicago in recent years as well.

If there was one name on this list I'd bank on the Cardinals going after, it's Brebbia, but I don't think that means he's the only reliever they'll target, and they'd be wise to add multiple right-handers to their mix if they can do so.

Chris Martin, Red Sox

Coming off an excellent season in 2023, Boston Red Sox reliever Chris Martin has not had the same success on the surface in 2024 but has a lot of encouraging signs that point to being a high-leverage bullpen arm for a contender down the stretch.

Last year, Martin posted a 1.05 ERA in 51.1 innings pitched for the Red Sox, so regression was expected for Martin to some extent this year. In his 21.1 innings thus far, Martin has a 4.22 ERA, but he's actually improved both his strikeout rate and walk rate this year. The big issue for Martin has been a massive spike in his home run to fly ball rate, which that jump has happened in his career before when his ground ball rate drops like it has this year.

Like Brebbia, Martin has one of the best chase rates in baseball, ranking in the 97th percentile, and he has a really solid whiff rate as well. Martin mostly relies on his cutter and four-seam fastball while mixing in his splitter as a put-away pitch. He has used his sinker far less this year than he did in years past, so maybe getting a feel for that pitch again can help him induce more ground balls and see his numbers stabilize.

Another interesting wrinkle for why Martin could be a target for St. Louis is the recent history connecting the two organizations. The Cardinals acquired reliever Nick Robertson from the Red Sox this past offseason in the Tyler O'Neill trade, and they also selected Ryan Fernandez from Boston in the Rule 5 draft. Chaim Bloom, who was brought in as a Special Advisor to President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak this offseason, was in charge of baseball operations for Boston until the end of the 2023 season, so there is a lot of familiarity here.

Martin has been seen as a trade candidate around the industry if the Red Sox do decide to sell, but I'm sure a number of contenders would be interested in bringing in Martin as well. He is another name I would keep a close eye on as Cardinals fans.

Jason Foley, Tigers

A different breed of pitcher from Brebbia and Martin, Jason Foley is a high-velocity reliever for the Detroit Tigers who forces a ton of ground balls but does not have the swing and miss you might expect from a fireballer like him.

Foley is the prototypical sinker-slider guy that teams seem to be chasing for their bullpens now. Foley uses his sinker 61.8% of the time, and last year his sinker had an elite 20-run value. This year, opposing hitters have found more success against that sinker, posting a .322 batting average and a .441 slugging percentage against the pitch. While he needs those numbers to stabilize in order to find more success, the improvement from his slider has to be intriguing.

Opponents whiff when swinging at his slider 33.3% of the time and have just a .105 batting average against it. He has a solid whiff% with the pitch as well, so if he seems improvement from his sinker again, it will be a deadly combination.

Even with the regression from his sinker this year. Foley has managed to get good results in 2024, so it is encouraging to see him continue to get outs even without his best stuff. His 3.18 ERA and 3.76 FIP are quality results for sure, and like Brebbia and Martin before him, an uptick in his HR/FB rate seems to be what's keeping him from producing even better numbers.

I would imagine Foley's price point would be closer to that of Martin than Brebbia in a deal, but again, it should not require the Cardinals to break the bank prospects-wise to make this improvement.

Declan Cronin, Marlins

Declan Cronin is probably the name that people will be least familiar with on this list, but he is someone who Jeff Passan recently brought up as a trade candidate for the Miami Marlins. Like the White Sox, the Marlins look like a team that will be offloading a lot of names come July, and the 26-year-old out of Holy Cross is one who won't make headlines but could make a strong impact for a contender.

Cronin's metrics this year are really interesting. On the surface, that 1.21 ERA in 29.2 innings tells you what fans really want to know, he prevents runs at a high level. He ranks among the best in baseball in pitching run value, fastball run value, and breaking ball run value, and his xERA is well above average as well.

Cronin is a sinker-slider guy, throwing those two pitches 42.8% and 54.5% of the time respectively. Both pitches have been highly effective this year, producing sub-.250 batting averages and slugging percentages against them. The slider has a nasty 34.8% whiff% and 29.9% K% due to its well above-average vertical movement.

If the Cardinals were to acquire him from Miami, he'd have a lot of team control, so while I don't imagine he'll cost a significant package to acquire, it would take some convincing to get him off the Marlins hands since they really have no reason to move him other than to capitalize on his value. Cronin does not have a long track record but it would be an excellent long-term play for St. Louis should they go that direction.

Shawn Armstrong, Rays

It is not often you see the Tampa Bay Rays become sellers at the trade deadline, but with how tough the American League has been this year and the amount of injuries the Rays have had to deal with, they could be included to move some of their soon to be free-agents, like veteran Shawn Armstrong.

The Cardinals poached Andrew Kittredge from them this past offseason, and according to Passan, Armstrong is another veteran reliever who may be on the move and could make for an interesting addition to bolster the right side of the Cardinals' bullpen behind Helsley and Kittredge.

Armstrong is a fastball-dominant pitcher, throwing either a four-seamer, cutter, or sinker 95.1% of the time this year. The Rays have been known to take what their pitchers do best and try to maximize that, and Armstrong is a perfect example of this.

Armstrong has been very effective this year, posting a 3.68 ERA and 3.24 FIP while striking out 26.6% of the batters he faces. Again, he's not a world-beater by any means, but as your third-best right-handed option out of your bullpen, he'd be a strong name to have in the mix.

Having a unique profile like Armstrong's can also be a helpful weapon for Oli Marmol to go late in games. Having an arm or two in your bullpen that operate very differently than the other arms in your mix helps keep opposing lineups off balance, so while they may see strong fastballs from Helsley, Kittredge, and Fernandez, they won't see the overwhelming mix of them that Armstrong throws.

Armstrong was able to post a 1.38 ERA and 1.3 WAR last year with the Rays in 52 innings of work, so the upside for even more out of him is there as well. Should the Rays decide to sell at the deadline, the Cardinals would be an interesting pairing for the 33-year-old right-hander.

Adam Ottavino, Mets

The last name on this list actually began his career with St. Louis, and while his raw numbers will freak Cardinals fans out, Adam Ottavino has so many indicators that point to much more success coming to him in the near future.

Let's rip the bandaid off - Ottavino is sporting a 5.96 ERA in 22.2 innings this year. Yikes. But let's look at all of the good that is underneath the surface...

• 3.09 xERA and 3.62 FIP indicate positive regression is coming
• He is striking out batters 31.4% of the time!
• Ottavino's home run rate is higher than his career normal but not to a concerning level.
• His average exit velocity, xBA, xERA, K%, Hard-Hit%, GB%, and extension all ranked in the 77th percentile or better.
• And hey, he's pitching for the Mets. Give him a break.

Seriously though, Ottavino is an experienced reliever who still has great stuff out of the back of the bullpen, and could be an excellent option to add to their mix without giving up a significant return. Ottavino has filled a number of roles in his career and can be relied on in high-leverage situations, or even give the Cardinals multiple innings to help them alleviate some pressure from their best arms.

If you're not familiar with Ottavino, he's a sinker-sweeper guy who mostly uses that combination to get right-handed hitters out while mixing in a change-up, cutter, and four-seamer to get out lefties alongside his sinker. If you want to see how that sinker/sweeper does against a hitter like Donovan though, see below.

I understand the names on this list are not flashy by any means. But if the Cardinals want to improve their bullpen at this deadline, flashy doesn't seem to be the name of the game. There are quality arms out there to be had at manageable prices, and the Cardinals would do well to add one or two to their bullpen between now and the deadline.