6 paths the Cardinals can take with newly reported financial flexibility

The St. Louis Cardinals are uncharacteristically the most active team in baseball so far this offseason, and it feels like almost every day there are more reports about their offseason plans.

Last night, Jon Becker of FanGraphs drew attention to the Associate Press's report on Sonny Gray's deal, showing that his contract had actually been backloaded. Gray will receive $10 million in 2024, $25 million in 2025, and $35 million in 2026 with a $30 million club option for 2027, rather than the initial thought that the deal was a flat $25 million salary during those three guaranteed years.

Why does this matter? Well, instead of the Cardinals having around $15 million to play with before moving any salaries through trades, they should have somewhere around $30 million to spend. Should they move on from any of Tyler O'Neill ($5.5 million), Steven Matz ($12.5 million), and/or Dylan Carlson ($1.8 million), that number could rise even more.

We've been wondering since the Gray signing what they can truly accomplish the rest of the offseason. They plan on adding some bullpen arms still, but in order to be aggressive and add another starting pitcher, it was going to require getting creative with moving one or more of those aforementioned salaries, or ponying up in terms of trading the young bats or prospects to get a cost-controlled, top-end arm.

Instead, the Cardinals got creative in how they structured Gray's contract, and now have created a situation where they can truly be aggressive without us having to identify multiple hoops they need to jump through to accomplish those tasks.

Here are six different ways I think the Cardinals can approach the rest of this offseason based on the newly reported flexibliy they have.

6. Added finacial flexibility at the trade deadline

The first scenario is the least exciting of all, and it's not the one I think they'll go with, but it's certainly possible. The Cardinals could use the extra flexibility they have to make those bullpen acquisitions and save the rest of the money for potential moves at the 2024 trade deadline.

Becker, who first noticed the Gray contract breakdown, noted this himself on Twitter/X, but I don't fully agree with his take on that scenario.

John Mozeliak already stated at the GM Meetings that the Cardinals plan on being around the $200 million payroll mark, as that was where the club was tracking to be at the 2023 trade deadline if they had been buyers instead of sellers. So sticking around a $180 million payroll goes against what Mozeliak has already publically stated their goals were this offseason.

Now, his point about them not spending a ton more could be true still. They may explore the trade market and free agency for another starting pitcher, not be in love with any of the deals they could make, and just make a few small bullpen moves and hold onto that cash flow for July instead. It's something the Cardinals actually did last offseason, as before the 2023 season began, Mozeliak referred to how they had more money to spend as the season went along.

Instead, the season was a disaster, so they did removed salary from their books while selling pieces, rather than adding that salary on to make a playoff push. The moves the Cardinals have made so far this offseason have raised their floor significantly, and even without any more major moves, they should be in a position in July to buy, which is when we could see their next "big move".

Again, I don't think this is the route they'll go, but it's certainly possible. I just have a hard time believing the Cardinals are choosing to pay Gray $35 million in 2026 and not be aggressive with that flexibility this offseason. I'd turn my attention to these other five scenarios in light of the news about Gray's contract.

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Go heavy with bullpen acquisitions

One path the Cardinals could go down is to acquire significantly better relievers than any of us really thought they could just a few days ago.

St. Louis has made it clear they are going after bullpen additions, but the level to which they could do this seemed a bit muted. If I were betting on Monday what those moves could look like, it may have included one free agent, but not on a big deal, and then likely an arm via trade using their outfield depth.

The Cardinals now have the flexibility to add two significant bullpen pieces in the coming weeks and months. Maybe a reunion with Jordan Hicks will happen. The two sides were trying to iron out a contract extension before the trade deadline. Yuki Matsui has been linked to the Cardinals, a left-handed closer coming over from Japan. Phil Maton has been linked to St. Louis as well and would provide them with a high-leverage arm as well.

The Cardinals could realistically grab multiple of those names or any other free-agent reliever not named Josh Hader. They still have the ability to add bullpen arms through the trade market as well in this scenario, but they could also use that outfield depth to acquire a cost-controlled starter, such as Alek Manoah if they decide to spend significant dollars on the bullpen.

While this very well could be the path they go down, I still think they do at most one "significant" bullpen, and mostly favor acquiring cost-controlled relievers in trades or signing lower-cost relievers like a Shelby Miller instead. The rest of the scenarios is how they can truly be aggressive, and it's the paths I'm feeling optimistic they'll walk.

Sign one of the "tier two or tier three" starting pitchers available

The Cardinals have signed three starting pitchers this offseason, why not a forth?

While the biggest fish on the pitching market still lingers (more on that later), names like Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito, Marcus Stroman, and others are still lingering in free agency. Could the Cardinals pair one of them with Sonny Gray to give them a true 1-2 punch for 2024?

I am not putting all of those names in the same category of starting pitchers. Snell is the reigning Cy Young award winner, Montgomery is coming off an incredible season and playoff run, Rodriguez is setting himself up for a nice payday, and both Giolito and Stroman had rocky ends to their seasons. But for the sake of not making 15 different paths the Cardinals could do down, I'm lumping all of those names together here.

Montgomery and Snell are the two names that will likely get AAVs ranging anywhere from $24m-$28m a year, so they'd take up a signifcant portion of the Cardinals remaining budget. They both happen to offer the highest ceilings of this grouping as well, which is why you'd pay the premium.

Rodriguez, Giolito, and Stroman would all likely be netting something south of $24 million a year, with Rodriguez and Giolito especially being candidates to get less than $20 million per season.

The Cardinals could swing for Cy Young upside and add Snell to their staff. They could get a dependable lefty as their number two starter in either Montgomery or Rodriguez. They can pay Giolito or Stroman hoping their upside shines through. All of those things now make sense with the money they have leftover and the kind of rotation they have built.

I think this is very much on the table for St. Louis, but with so many teams in baseball needing starting pitching and the Cardinals being one of the teams who have already snagged three of those starters off the free agent market, I'm not sure they will want to try and outbid teams for one of those names specifically. Now when it comes to the trade market or that really big fish from Japan, I think there is a lot more smoke.

Trade for Dylan Cease

It seems very likely that the White Sox will move on from Dylan Cease this offseason, and the Cardinals should be one of the teams making offers to the White Sox.

Cease is estimated to make about $8.8 million in arbitration in 2024, and has one more year of team control in 2025. He doesn't break the bank for St. Louis financially, which would still give them the flexibility to add high-leverage bullpen arms without going over budget.

Because of the talent that Cease has and the control he has left, the price will be high to acquire him. It sounds like the Dodgers and Braves are two teams who are already aggressively pursuing his services, and teams like the Cubs, Reds, Orioles, Red Sox, Giants, Astros, Phillies, and Mets could all find themselves making offers as well.

I've already compiled different trade offers for Cease on the site, and any of those packages would be painful to cough up. But if the Cardinals value getting a front-line starter who eats innings and won't cost them a fortune financially over the next two seasons, Cease makes all of the sense in the world.

Something else that needs to be noted is that the Cardinals now enter trade negotiations from a position of leverage for the rest of this offseason. If the Cardinals tried to trade for Cease without a guy like Gray in their rotation or even the innings eaters in Lynn and Gibson, the White Sox would know the Cardinals have to get a deal done, and could strong-arm them in trade talks. Now the Cardinals can genuinely walk away from the table and feel okay, something that allows them to not have to outbid themselves in trades.

Now, like I said before, it's still going to be pricey to get Cease. With other clubs bidding on him, the Cardinals will likely have to put one of Brendan Donovan or Nolan Gorman into the deal along with prospects to secure a deal. I doubt a deal centered around Edman and prospects gets it done, but who knows?

I think it's more likely that the Cardinals would rather be aggressive in getting another arm in a deal that does not require them giving up Donovan or Gorman, so if Cease requires that and they can get a different option instead, I think they move on from Cease talks. But if Cease is on their mind, they have the pieces to get the deal done.

Trade for Tyler Glasnow

If there are two names I have been unapologetically high on this winter, they are Sonny Gray and Tyler Glasnow. I very much believe this is where the breadcrumbs are leading to at the moment.

Now, once again, I don't think the Cardinals are married to any of these ideas. I don't think they will overpay to get Glasnow from the Rays. If another team offers a silly amount of value to Tampa Bay, I think the Cardinals will look elsewhere. But this deal just makes way too much sense not to happen now.

Here's my line of thinking. While appearing on the "Baseball Tonight Podcast", Derrick Goold stated that the Cardinals pursued only free agents to start the offseason "by design", so that they could come into the Winter Meetings with their starting pitching needs met and could then begin to explore trades.

You may also remember Goold's reporting from back on October 6th over at the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (subscription required), stating that if the Rays entertain discussions on Glasnow, the Cardinals "Will call. Or email. Or text. Or all three". He's continued to report their interest in Glasnow since then as well.

This all screams to me that the Cardinals wanted to get certainty into their rotation early in the offseason, and then explore high-upside moves like Glasnow once those were in place, something we talked about at length on the Noot News Podcast on Wednesday.

Glasnow is set to make $25 million in 2024, the final year of control before he hits free agency. He would be by far the highest-paid player in Rays' history if he remained on the roster, so considering how they do business, moving off of him is a no-brainer.

Due to that large salary, lack of long-term control, and his lengthy injury history, Glasnow will not net the Rays a significant return like Dylan Cease will for the White Sox. Instead, they'll likely get a mix of big-league talent and/or prospects, but none of them would be particularly crazy in terms of value.

For St. Louis, a deal with the framework of one of their outfielders (Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Carlson, or Alec Burleson) plus a mid-tier prospect feels close to what the price will be. Could be a bit more, but we aren't talking about moving Nolan Gorman or Brendan Donovan here. I also think they could get creative by including a starting pitcher like Steven Matz to help the Rays replace the innings they are losing from Glasnow. I put together trade packages for Glasnow on the site recently.

The Cardinals rotation is now perfectly set up to take on the risk that Glasnow comes with due to having a dependable front-line arm in Gray, and dependable innings eaters in Lynn, Mikolas, and Gibson. If Glasnow misses starts, the Cardinals rotation will be fine in those stretches. But what Glasnow would give St. Louis is a guy who can pair with Gray to be an elite 1-2 punch in October. For all of the durability concerns people have with Glasnow, he pitched in the postseason for the Rays in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023.

I personally think this is a very real scenario that the Cardinals will be entertaining over the coming weeks. Glasnow feels like the cherry on top of this offseason for the Cardinals, and I'd be over the moon if they can pull it off. I talked about this idea even further on the Noot News Podcast with Redbird Rants contributor Andrew Wang.

The reason I included six different routes they could take is because I truly believe they are open-minded to seeing how things play out. If they can get Yamamoto, they are going to do it. If Glasnow truly makes perfect sense, they'll pursue it. If the Cease deal lines up for them, they'll try to pull the trigger. If the tier two or tier three pitching market falls to where they want it, they'll pounce. If there are moves to be made to really give this bullpen a makeover, they will. Or if they just want to get their bullpen fixes quickly settled and have money left over for trades during the season, they certainly can go that route.

Backloading Gray's contract has opened up so many possibilities for the Cardinals, and I for one am excited to see how they approach the rest of the offseason.