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6 overreactions to the first week of the Cardinals' 2024 season
The Cardinals 2024 season is just over a week old and there are already plenty of fan overreactions. Let's break them down and see which are good and which are not!
The St. Louis Cardinals have been playing regular-season baseball for just over a week, and it's already looking a lot better than last year. However, there are some concerns surrounding the team early, and with small sample sizes come big overreactions from the fanbase. Many of these overreactions will die down once the season continues, but there's a bit of truth in all of them. Which Cardinals early season takes are correct, and which are overreactions? Let's break them down!
Overreaction 1 - Nolan Arenado's decline has begun
It's no secret that Nolan Arenado's 2023 season was extremely disappointing and the worst full season of his Major League career. Arenado himself would be the first to say he let himself down and let Cardinals fans down. Coming off an electric 2022 season, Nolan Arenado posted the worst offensive and defensive numbers of his career. It was the first full season in which Arenado didn't reach 100 RBIs and did not win the Gold Glove at third base.
Hoping to put the struggles in 2023 behind him, Nolan Arenado came into Spring Training camp optimistic, hungry, and with something to prove. Lars Nootbaar, who worked out with Arenado all offseason, noted Nolan's desire to prove doubters wrong: "A motivated Nolan is a scary Nolan." Many in Cardinals media noticed this and expected Arenado to immediately rebound. Katie Woo of the Athletic even gave a bold prediction that he would receive MVP consideration during an appearance on the Dealin' the Cards (formerly Noot News) Podcast.
However, Arenado had a rather quiet Spring and hasn't gotten any better to start the season, unlike teammate Paul Goldschmidt. He looks lost at the plate, taking weak half swings, and is amidst the longest home run drought of his career. In 8 games so far, Arenado has recorded a 61 OPS+. It's still an extremely small sample size, but his peripherals including exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate are all uncharacteristically low.
Including his struggles this Spring and last season, many fans have begun to wonder if Nolan Arenado's best years are behind him and if his age-induced decline has already begun. With still three more seasons on an expensive contract, regression from Arenado would be a serious problem for the Cardinals going forward, and the warning signs have presented themselves early this season.
However, it's not all lost for Nolan. He started 2023 in a similar manner and turned it around in May and June to receive an All-Star selection. It wasn't until later in the season that his struggles started again due to a back injury. While Arenado appears fully healthy, it's possible he's still suffering from nagging issues, or it's just another slow start like last season. We're eight games into the 2024 season, and there are plenty of star players who haven't quite gotten it going. Hopefully, Arenado will catch fire soon.
Verdict: It's still too early to tell, but I'm definitely more worried than I was with his slow start last year.
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Overreaction 2 - The Cardinals lineup has more problems than we thought
In addition to Nolan Arenado, many of the Cardinals' young exciting hitters are not off to amazing starts. Nolan Gorman has an OPS+ of 50. Jordan Walker has an OPS+ of 19. Is it possible that the lineup that was hyped up by fans and media all offseason isn't as good as we thought?
Well, the Cardinals are playing extremely shorthanded right now. Lars Nootbaar has missed the start of the season. So have Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman. Victor Scott II was an emergency call-up and he's a defense and speed-first outfielder. Alec Burleson is seeing significant playing time in the lineup but would be a bench bat with the team fully healthy. So while health and depth are key parts of having a good offense, we should refrain from judging the Cardinals until they play more games.
Lars Nootbaar's imminent return will give the Cardinals a much-needed boost in the middle of their lineup. Having Noot in the lineup over Burleson will be a much-needed upgrade. Gorman and Walker will come around eventually. Both are still hitting the ball hard, and the results will come in time. Paul Goldschmidt is taking much more competitive at-bats than he was during Spring Training, and he has historically started slowly in April. Moreover, even without the offense performing at its best, the Cardinals are finding scrappy ways to win through baserunning and timely hitting, something they failed to do last year.
The Cardinals are also finding some great offensive production in unexpected places. So far, Masyn Winn has been swinging the bat tremendously and Ivan Herrera has earned himself a lot more playing time next to Willson Contreras. There may not be another offense in baseball with as much depth as the Cardinals. Even with all the injuries, their lineup competes every day, which is a drastic improvement from 2023.
Verdict: It may not be a top 5 unit in all of baseball, but it's still dangerous. Reinforcements are coming.
Overreaction 3 - Victor Scott II is not Major League ready
Victor Scott's .100/.182/.167/.348 slash line and -6 OPS+ to start the season sure aren't pretty. But, with only eight games played, the numbers are selling him short. Scott's impact has been felt throughout the team, both at the plate and in the field. As a potential 80-grade defender, he takes the load off Brendan Donovan and Jordan Walker, neither of whom are exceptional in the field. Moreover, Scott has shown the ability to wreak havoc on the bases.
He's only stolen one base so far, but he's forced errors and scored runs that nobody else in the league can. Even with the infield in, he's almost guaranteed to score from third base on any ground ball and has contributed many of the key runs in the four Cardinals wins so far. Starting pitchers are on alert once Scott reaches base. Anytime he reaches, the batter following gets more fastballs to hit, and the pitcher's focus is on him rather than the current at bat. The Cardinals' baserunning has significantly improved to start the season, and Victor Scott II is a large part of that improvement.
The Victor Scott effect 🏎️🏎️🏎️ #STLCards https://t.co/qGHCtdrqMD pic.twitter.com/vgTLripb5M
— Dealin' the Cards Podcast (@DealinTheCards) April 5, 2024
It's not like Scott looks completely overmatched at the plate, either. He's made good contact and hit the ball hard. His approach looks great, and it may only be a matter of time before he fully clicks and breaks out completely. As he explained in an interview with Josh Jacobs on the Dealin' the Cards Podcast, Victor Scott is a true student of the game. He's going to continue learning and developing at the plate, and he's already an extremely valuable member of the Cardinals with his speed and defense. He'll continue to get significant playing time in center field until Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman can return healthy, and we can be sure he'll make the most of this opportunity.
Verdict: Not worried at all. Scott is an electric player, and his approach is extremely promising. Can't wait to see what he does next.
Overreaction 4 - Lynn and Gibson were great offseason acquisitions
When Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson pitch, the Cardinals are 3-0. When someone else pitches, the Cardinals are 1-4. That kind of speaks for itself, right? After an offseason where fans wanted Nola and Yamamoto but were rewarded with Lynn and Gibson, the outrage was rampant. But maybe John Mozeliak made the right call. He didn't make a popular decision, but like so many other times throughout his tenure, he might've made the correct decision.
Lance Lynn's veteran attitude was on full display in his very first inning of work against the Los Angeles Dodgers. After allowing the Big Three of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman to all reach base, he struck out the side to strand the bases loaded. Even though the rain cut his outing short, Lynn made his statement. He's here to compete.
Kyle Gibson's start against the Padres wasn't as dominant, but it was certainly less shaky. Gibson provided a 7-inning quality start, and despite allowing a pair of solo home runs, he was exactly as advertised. He gave the Cardinals a chance to win, saved the bullpen taxed from a brutal series against the Dodgers, and the Cardinals offense pulled through for a great win. This was no fluke from Gibson either, as many of his starts in a 15-win season last year were very similar. He's a dependent innings eater who keeps his team in the game. For only $13 million, that might've been a steal.
Lynn's second start against the Marlins wasn't as effective as his outing in LA, as he was tagged for four earned runs in less than five innings, but again he held strong long enough for the Cardinals to secure a comeback victory. He allowed three homers to a weak Miami lineup, a lingering problem from last season, but it wasn't an implosion. The important thing is that the Cardinals secured another win.
Unlike starts from Adam Wainwright, Jake Woodford, Drew Rom, Dakota Hudson, and many others last year, Lynn and Gibson give competitive starts. They aren't ace-caliber pitchers, but the Cardinals aren't paying them to be ace-caliber pitchers. Lynn and Gibson have done a successful job of giving the Cardinals a chance to fight for wins, and the lineup has repaid the favor in each outing thus far. Once Sonny Gray returns, the rotation could be a stabilizing force for this team.
Verdict: Pitching can be volatile, so it's too early to tell. However, the early results have been extremely promising, and the rotation has the potential to survive the regular season.
Overreaction 5 - Injuries will derail the Cardinals' entire season
If the St. Louis Cardinals win the Pennant this year, the 2024 Opening Day lineup will be a trivia question. Why was Victor Scott II batting leadoff in the 8th game of his career? Did a backup catcher hit cleanup? Is Michael Siani the second coming of Justin Williams? Well, after suffering a flurry of hit-by-pitches in San Diego, Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras were both unavailable for the home opener. It's unlikely they'll miss significant time, but even missing one game is quite the blow to a Cardinals team already dealing with multiple injuries to key contributors.
Tommy Edman's wrist injury was downplayed all offseason, but it looks like he may miss the majority, if not all, of the 2024 season. Sonny Gray hurt his hamstring in just his second Spring start, and Lars Nootbaar suffered yet another freak injury fracturing his ribs on a diving catch. Once Dylan Carlson collided with Jordan Walker during the final Spring Training game, it looked like the Cardinals might be destined for an injury-riddled campaign. Along with Riley O'Brien and Keynan Middleton, not even the bullpen was safe.
Aside from Edman's injury, though, it doesn't look like any of the Cardinals' injuries will be too damaging. The roster should be nearly healthy at some point very soon. Once Nootbaar and Gray return, the lineup and starting rotation will both be near full strength. Both Contreras and Donovan should be cleared to play in some capacity this weekend against the Marlins, so while scary, the hit-by-pitches, thankfully, don't seem to be very impactful.
It's impossible to predict injuries for the roster down the stretch, but hopefully, the Cardinals' luck will turn around, and the rest of the team can stay healthy. Even if the injury bug continues to bite, however, the Cardinals' come-from-behind win over the Marlins in the home opener showed a lot of promise. Despite the team not being at its best, the Cardinals can still scrape together wins with a less-than-stellar lineup.
Verdict: Injuries are tough no matter what. But as long as they don't get too out of hand, the Cardinals will survive. For now, the health of the team is not a major concern.
Overreaction 6 - The Cardinals' pitching development was to blame for last year's failure
With the pitching turnover from last season, we got our first glimpse of many former Cardinals pitchers wearing new uniforms for the first time. Most notably, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks, and Dakota Hudson made their first starts for their new teams. All three were huge components of the Cardinals' pitching staff last year. So, how did they do?
Well, it was not good, for the Cardinals at least. Jack Flaherty allowed just one earned run in 6 innings for the Detroit Tigers while striking out 7 batters. Through 2 starts, Jordan Hicks has tossed 12 innings and allowed just one earned run while striking out 11. Even Dakota Hudson, who was non-tendered by the Cardinals, didn't allow an earned run against the Cubs. He ultimately was tagged for three runs, but those were all charged to an ugly Nolan Jones error in left field.
Zac Gallen and Sandy Alcantara immediately come to mind with the Cardinals' failure in recognizing pitching talent, but is it time to add a few more names to that list? Well, Flaherty and Hicks both showed extreme promise during their time in St. Louis, but it just never worked out. Flaherty suffered multiple injuries and was never the same. And it turns out Hicks might've been right about not getting a fair shot at starting games.
It's unfortunate that the Cardinals were never able to tap into their full potential, but after a tumultuous 2023 season, neither pitcher wanted to return to St. Louis. Flaherty, in particular, seems to have left on poor terms with some members of the Cardinals clubhouse. A reunion with either just didn't make sense. Add them to a long list of Alex Reyes, Carlos Martinez, Shelby Miller, and countless other promising young arms that just didn't work out. Let's hope Chaim Bloom and John Mozeliak recognize this as a real problem and pitchers like Tink Hence, Gordon Graceffo, Max Rajcic, and Cooper Hjerpe don't suffer the same fate.
Lastly, I'll address Dakota Hudson really quickly. He looked to be the same pitcher with the Rockies. The walk issue is still very real, and he got some lucky sequencing in his first start. The wind at Wrigley kept the ball in the ballpark, and I'd be shocked if Hudson pans out with Colorado.
Verdict: Spot on. Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks were huge developmental misses for the Cardinals. We kind of already knew that but now it's confirmed. But Dakota Hudson? Come on now, it was one start.
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