6 options the Cardinals could consider if they expand to a six-man rotation

As Cardinals' Spring Training begins, it looks like most of the position battles are already won. We know who the five starting pitchers will be, the lineup is mostly set aside from Masyn Winn at shortstop who needs to prove that he can hit at the Major League level, and the bullpen which has a few spots up in the air. However, as reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch, the Cardinals might be considering a six-man rotation to open the 2024 season.

In the first 21 days of the season, the Cardinals will play 19 games with only 2 off days and will face some tough competition in the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, and Diamondbacks. Since the lack of innings was such an issue for the 2023 Cardinals, it makes sense to ease the new starting rotation into the season to avoid the risk of burnout or injury amongst the staff. Moreover, there are plenty of internal options that the Cardinals could use as the sixth man.

It's a risky play for a team that failed to pair another frontline starter with Sonny Gray this offseason, but a six-man rotation may be a wise decision for the long-term health of an aging group. I'm still hoping for St. Louis to add another of the available starters that still somehow haven't signed, but the hope of that dwindles by the day. A six-man rotation would've made more sense if the Cardinals had landed one of the Japanese starting pitchers as six-man rotations are commonplace in NPB, but that ship has sailed.

Here are six options the Cardinals should consider for their final rotation spot.

Option 1 - Zack Thompson

While I believe Zack Thompson is better suited for a long relief role in the late innings as a high-leverage left-hander, he did show significant promise as a backend rotation option toward the end of the 2023 season. In nine games started, Thompson recorded a 4.57 ERA in 45.1 innings pitched. He was slightly better in relief, but not enough for it to be noticeable. For a backend starter, this is more than serviceable and significantly better than the Cardinals were able to get from the combination of Adam Wainwright and Jake Woodford last season.

Thompson should move back to the bullpen, where he's better suited, for a Postseason run but for the start of the season or filling in for an injured starter he's proven that he's good enough. Fans often overvalue how productive a team's backend starter should be.

The Cardinals by no means will have a super-rotation with Thompson at the back like the Dodgers or Mariners who have promising young talents such as Bobby Miller and Bryan Woo at the backend, but a super-rotation is not needed to contend in the playoffs. Thompson is better than the fifth or sixth starters of most Major League clubs, so there should be no concerns about letting him start a game or two.

Option 2 - Matthew Liberatore

Matthew Liberatore has had as rocky of a start to his MLB career as a starting pitcher could have. Through 31 appearances and 18 starts, Liberatore has recorded a 5.51 ERA and 4.54 FIP, not nearly the numbers fans expected from a once top-100 pitching prospect. It's still too early to say whether or not Liberatore should be considered a bust, but time is running out for him to prove himself. It's been reported that the Cardinals may look to move him to a bullpen role moving forward, but one last chance in the starting rotation may help Libby turn the page.

His command and velocity have wavered in late innings, but with the additions of Gibson and Lynn in the backend of the rotation to help eat innings, letting Liberatore struggle for a bit before finding his footing as a potential starter of the future for the Cardinals could work to their advantage. After all, if Liberatore has a few shorter outings in the early season, the bullpen won't be as overworked as it was last year so they can fill the remainder of innings.

Option 6 - An external option

The six-man rotation does keep the door open for another starting pitching acquisition from outside the organization. It's no secret that the Cardinals and Rays were in talks for Tyler Glasnow before he was shipped to Los Angeles, and the Cardinals have also been linked to White Sox ace Dylan Cease. Moreover, if free-agent options such as Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell have gotten more affordable, it's possible though unlikely that the Cardinals could swoop in on a shorter-term contract for either of the two frontline pitchers.

With starting pitchers as routine-based as they are, it's very possible that Montgomery and Snell will be forced to sign sooner than Boras might want to force the market. Suitors are also growing impatient and many such as the Rangers appear to be tapping out. Since the Cardinals filled their needs as early as they did, they can hold more leverage in such negotiations especially since an extra starter is more of a want than a need.

I believe the Cardinals are still one more top-end starter shy of contending for a World Series championship in 2024. While it looks like they'll roll into the 2024 season without that final piece, it would be wise to get it early and play like a World Series contender for the entire season instead of just the second half. It seems like that was the plan in 2023, but the Cardinals fell apart before they were able to get to the Trade Deadline as contenders.

Jumping on the market early may also help the team avoid paying a hefty price with many other teams looking to add starters at the deadline. After all, Montgomery and Snell can be had for only money right now, and the Cardinals have the rare opportunity to strike so late in the offseason.