6 impact starting pitchers the Cardinals could trade for at an affordable price

Nick Pivetta, Red Sox

Here's my current "favorite" target for the Cardinals at this deadline, but his availability will depend a lot upon the Red Sox's placement in the standings come the end of July.

Nick Pivetta is a really interesting starting pitcher who hits free agency following this season. So far in 2024, Pivetta has posted a 3.88 ERA in nine starts for the Red Sox and has done so while posting a 29.6% strikeout rate as well. Pivetta leans heavily on his fastball/sweeper combo to get the job done against opposing hitters, but he mixes in a cutter as well against lefties and also throws a curveball and slider.

In my opinion, Pivetta would instantly be your second most talented starter on your staff from a stuff perspective, and while he would not be a true number two starter, he could play up to that for St. Louis if things go well. Gray, Pivetta, Gibson, Mikolas, and Lynn is not a fearsome group, but it is one that can propel the Cardinals to October and hold their own when they get there.

One of the really interesting things about Pivetta is his flexibility between starting and relieving. If the Cardinals were to acquire him, it would be to start for them, but they'd also know if things somehow went poorly, he has proven to be very impactful in the bullpen. If the Cardinals made the postseason, they could decide in October whether or not to have Pivetta in their rotation or as a weapon in the bullpen, perhaps as a hybrid high-leverage arm and someone who can piggyback a starter if necessary.

I also find this to be an interesting link for St. Louis considering the Chaim Bloom connections here. Bloom acquired Pivetta while he was in charge of baseball operations for Boston, so a reunion would feel on brand considering all of the arms (Andrew Kittredge, Ryan Fernandez, Riley O'Brien, and Nick Robertson) that the Cardinals acquired this offseason with Bloom connections.

The Cardinals did make a trade with the Red Sox this offseason when they sent outfielder Tyler O'Neill to Boston, so there is clearly a working relationship there that could blossom into another deal if the Red Sox sell a piece like Pivetta.

Erick Fedde, White Sox

Erick Fedde is someone who the Cardinals and a lot of other teams around baseball were looking at this past offseason after he revitalized his career in the KBO, similar to how Miles Mikolas did before signing with St. Louis years ago.

Since returning to Major League Baseball this season, Fedde has been really good for the White Sox, posting a 3.09 ERA in 15 starts thus far, and his 3.44 FIP indicates that success is pretty real despite not being a major swing-and-miss guy or elite baserunner prevention.

The White Sox are clearly in sell mode and have multiple pieces the Cardinals may want, so I'm sure they'll discuss Fedde at some point. Fedde is a player that a lot of contenders will be interested in and is probably in the "Tier 2" of starting pitchers who will be available this July in trades.

One of the appealing parts of Fedde as well is his contract, which runs through the 2025 season at just $7 million. That honestly could cause the Cardinals to look elsewhere, not because they wouldn't enjoy having Fedde under contract at such a bargain, but because that could make his price point go up and even more appealing to clubs with real holes in their rotation for 2025.

The Cardinals rotation isn't exactly bulletproof for 2025 either, but they do have Gray, Mikolas, and Matz under contract with team options for Gibson and Lynn, and they also have guys like Tink Hence and Quinn Mathews on the rise. And who knows? Maybe even one of their Triple-A arms can finally figure things out as well.

All that to say, Fedde would be a bargain considering what he's being paid, and I'm sure the Cardinals will be one of the suitors, I'm just not sure if they'd want to pay up for more control rather than just go after someone who's on an expiring deal for less.

Luis Severino, Mets

Speaking of a starter on an expiring contract, Luis Severino has bounced back in a huge way in 2024 after trading the Yankees pinstripes for the orange and blue colors of the New York Mets.

After an up-and-down career in the Bronx, Severino has posted a 3.12 ERA in 13 starts so far this year, and while he has seen a significant dip in his strikeout percentage compared to his career norm, that's also been paired with an over-50 % groundball rate.

Severino's underlying metrics aren't the flashiest in the world, but he cleary knows how to get the job done. His barrel percentage and groundball percentage both rank in the 89th percentile in all of baseball, and he does boast really good fastball velocity for a guy who does not get a lot of strikeouts. Severino also has had four other seasons in his career where he's posted a 3.39 ERA or lower as a starter, so it's not like we haven't seen this side of him before.

Severino being a true rental helps bring his cost down as well, which should be appealing for St. Louis. Pitching is at a premium in July, so you'll pay more than you'd want to, but we should not be talking about any of the Cardinals' top prospects here in my opinion.

This move would also qualify as the Cardinals adding someone better than a fifth starter to fill out their rotation. With Severino in the fold, someone like Lance Lynn would slide back into that true fifth-starter role, and considering how he's pitched this season, he'd actually be much better than most fifth-starters in the league.

Cal Quantrill, Rockies

Out of the next three names, Cal Quantrill is the least exciting of them all, but if the Cardinals decided to go really inexpensive while upgrading their fifth spot in their rotation, Quantrill could be that guy.

First of all, whenever you have a guy finding as much success as Quantrill has while pitching for the Rockies, you take notice. Quantrill has posted a 3.43 ERA this year in 15 starts, but he's actually been even better on the road, posting a 3.06 ERA in nine starts.

Quantrill is a pitch-to-contact kind of guy and does so very effectively, ranking in the 65th percentile or better in hard-hit, barrel, and groundball percentage. He mostly uses his sinker and splitter against opposing hitters but will occasionally work in a cutter and curveball as well.

You may remember Quantrill from his time with Cleveland, as he came up as a pretty exciting and effective reliever, posting 2.25, 2.89, and a 3.38 ERA in consecutive seasons from 2020-2022. His xERA was always above 4.00 though, and 2023 finally caught up to him with that ERA skyrocketed all the way up to 5.24 and he ranked in the bottom 1% in baseball in K%.

Needless to say, while other names on this list would qualify as upgrades over other arms in the Cardinals rotation, this would purely be an upgrade over the spot Andre Pallante holds right now. It would make the team better and come at a bargain price, but the acquisition would be more about getting the Cardinals to October, rather than helping them succeed there.

Tyler Anderson, Angels

Tyler Anderson is a pretty funky starting pitcher when it comes to the numbers, but it's hard to argue against the success he has had for the Los Angeles Angels so far this year.

Anderson has posted a 2.58 ERA in 14 starts thus far and is doing so without boasting an elite strikeout or groundball rate. Anderson just knows how to induce weak contact, so whether they are fly balls, groundballs, or whiffs that he produces on an average basis, batters just can't seem to square the ball up on him.

To make things even weirder, Anderson's predominant pitches are his fastball, changeup, and cutter, which all range from 78 MPH to 89 MPH. He's a major throwback and a total zag in the era of high-velocity pitchers, but again, it's working out for him so far this year.

Anderson really struggled last year for the Dodgers, posting a 5.43 ERA in his 27 games, but he did find similar success in 2022 when he posted a 2.57 ERA for them in 178.2 innings. The lefty has a career 4.20 ERA, so he's pretty dependable but usually does not sustain this level of play.

Anderson is not one of my favorite targets by any means, as I just don't believe in the way that Anderson finds success on the mound.

Ryan Weathers, Marlins

The last name on this list is one I have a hard time nailing down the value of, but considering how open for business the Marlins have been, I'm sure they'll listen to offers on their young left-hander named Ryan Weathers.

While everyone's attention has been on their bigger name lefty in Jesus Luzardo, Weathers has been really good for Miami while most of the team has been drowning.

On the season, Weathers has a 3.55 ERA in 14 starts, striking out batters at a 22.5% rate while inducing groundballs 51.5% of the time. If you look at Weather's similar pitchers based on velocity and movement on Baseball Savant, you'll see names like 2021 Tarik Skubal and 2021 Robbie Ray, which shows you how promising his stuff is.

When Weathers is on, he uses his fastball, change-up, and sweeper to make opposing hitters look foolish. He's had multiple starts this year get into the double-digit strikeout range, and I think with more experience and continued development, we could see his swing-and-miss rate grow and grow.

Weather's fastball does live in the mid-90s, and his changeup and sweeper specifically are major weapons when he's feeling it. On the season, Weathers has a 39.4% whiff rate on his change-up and a whopping 55.3% whiff rate on his sweeper. All of the tools are there for Weathers to get better and better on the mound.

With how good he's been this year, the potential he still has, and being under team control through 2029, the Marlins will be in no rush to move him and would likely want a good package in return. Part of the reason I'd open these talks if I was St. Louis is because you're getting a lot of control back in this deal. Even if they had to part with a really significant prospect (not Tink Hence but one of their other valuable prizes), I don't think it will hurt as bad knowing he does not even reach arbitration for a few more seasons.