6 games behind the Braves with 19 games left? Is this 2011 for the St. Louis Cardinals?

The St. Louis Cardinals sit at 72-71 with 19 games to go in the 2024 season. They've surpassed last year's win total, but they are still on the outside looking in at the playoffs.

As things currently stand, the Cardinals are 10 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central. They're also six games behind the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets for the final Wild Card spot, and the Chicago Cubs are sandwiched between these teams. It's looking bleak for the postseason right now.

However, there was a time recently when the Cardinals were six games behind the Atlanta Braves for the final Wild Card spot with 19 games to go. That came in 2011, and we all remember how that season ended.

On September 9th, 2011, the Cardinals had a 76-67 record, and they were six games behind the Atlanta Braves for the final Wild Card. On September 9th of this year, the same distance is present, and the teams remain the same. The main difference, however, would be the records of the respective teams. Both the Braves and Cardinals this year have worse records.

From September 9th until the end of the 2011 season, the Cardinals would finish with a 14-5 record, a .684 winning percentage. The Braves, on the other hand, collapsed. They would go 6-13 in their final 19 games and fall dramatically out of playoff contention.

Hopefully, history does indeed repeat itself in 2024. If the Cardinals finish with a .684 winning percentage, they'll have an 85-77 record. If the Braves for 6-13 for the rest of the season, they'll have an 84-78 record. That will give the Cardinals the upper hand between these two teams. The issue is that the Cubs and especially the Mets need to have similar downfalls as the Braves for the Cardinals to make the postseason.

This year's team is drastically different from the 2011 squad. There's no Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, or Yadier Molina equivalent. Willson Contreras is hurt, Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt aren't their former selves, and the young players aren't stepping up like the team needs. One of the key elements of the 2011 team was the deadline acquisitions, specifically the relievers, stepping up. This year, the Cardinals have one of the game's best closers in Ryan Helsley, and the bullpen ranks 8th in win probability added, so it remains a key cog on the roster.

Perhaps the most important comparison between the 2011 and 2024 teams would be the players who will be on the roster both times. Both Matt Carpenter and Lance Lynn, veterans whom John Mozeliak targeted specifically this offseason, played in 2011 and are rostered this year. Maybe their veteran leadership will guide the team to success down the final stretch this year.