6 free agents the Cardinals passed on since 2019 that they should have signed

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The St. Louis Cardinals have not been particularly successful in diving into free-agent waters in recent years. Sure, they got insane production from a cheap deal with Albert Pujols in 2022 and Willson Contreras last offseason, but they've also made regrettable deals for various players as well.

While fans and media continue to clamor for the Cardinals to make bigger swings, they've tended to stay in the mid-tier markets, pursuing names like Dexter Fowler, Steven Matz, Mike Leake, Brett Cecil, Andrew Miller, and names like theirs, rather than taking bigger bites at the apple.

On one hand, their failed pursuits of guys like David Price or Jason Heyward worked out for the best. The same could be said for sitting out the Carlos Rodon or Javier Baez markets. But over the last five offseasons, there have been plenty of big names the Cardinals decided to pass on who could have made a massive impact for the club on the field. These six names stick out like a sore thumb.

Corey Seager

After the 2021 season, the Cardinals were coming off an extremely disappointing season from shortstop Paul DeJong, and despite a crazy winning streak at the end of the year that vaulted them into the postseason, really needed a major upgrade to their team to make them legit contenders.

Corey Seager played in just 95 games in 2021, but was one of the best hitters in baseball when healthy, posting a .915 OPS and 142 OPS+ while playing good defense at shortstop. Seager would go on to sign a ten-year, $325 million contract that offseason with the Texas Rangers, but I cannot help but think he would have put the Cardinals into World Series contention.

From the Cardinals' perspective, they wanted to give DeJong another shot as the starting shortstop and had Tommy Edman as immediate support if he could not figure things out at the plate. They were also very excited about Masyn Winn and did not want to block him long-term.

While Edman and Winn are valuable players, Seager is a true MVP-caliber bat and would have won AL MVP this year if it was not for an insane Shohei Ohtani season. This would have given St. Louis a Goldschmidt-Seager-Arenado middle-of-the-order that would have been one of the best trios in all of baseball. Long-term, as bats like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, and Lars Nootbaar emerged, the lineup would truly compete with the Braves for the best in baseball.

Even with having so much money locked up in Seager, the Cardinals could have used their position player depth to go out and get starting pitching via trade. The thought of trading a Nolan Gorman or Masyn Winn right now seems crazy, but if they had Corey Seager, it would make a lot more sense for this club.

Nathan Eovaldi

While he may not have been a huge name when he hit free agency, Nathan Eovaldi qualified as a higher-end pitcher with postseason success that the Cardinals really should have taken the gamble on last offseason.

Admittedly, I was not a fan of going after Eovaldi in the moment, but it turns out he would have been an excellent addition to the staff. He received a two-year, $34 million deal with the Rangers (the same AAV that Adam Wainwright got) and helped lead the Rangers to their World Series title.

Eovaldi was an All-Star in the first half of the season, and while his numbers won't jump off the page at you from the regular season, pairing him up with Jordan Montgomery this last season would have been an excellent duo. Why do I say that? Well, the two of them just topped the Rangers' rotation in the 2023 postseason. Eovaldi made six starts in the 2023 postseason, posting a 2.95 ERA during that stretch and winning five of those six starts. He had a similar reputation in Boston as a big-game pitcher and should have been a top target for the Cardinals.

The Cardinals did explore the starting pitching market last offseason, but they decided to stick with the internal options, rather than strengthening the staff. Well, that proved to be a disastrous decision and one that the Cardinals surely regret.

Does Eovaldi alone make the Cardinals' problems from 2023 go away? Probably not. But I do think his presence would have stabilized things early on. I would envision their lows aren't as low to start the year, and even if it would have been a disappointing first half, my guess is they would've been close enough to the playoff race that they could have bought at the trade deadline, and truly become a team that could make a run in the second half.

Kevin Gausman, 2021

Kevin Gausman has had a remarkable career thus far. He was drafted fourth overall in the 2012 MLB draft, designated by an assignment after a disappointing start to his career, then signed a five-year, $110 million contract with the Blue Jays after a career revival, and just finished as a Cy Young finalist in 2023.

His revival began with the Giants, where he posted a 3.00 ERA in 251.2 innings over two seasons, including a 2.81 ERA in 33 starts with San Fransisco in 2021, finishing sixth in Cy Young voting and being an All-Star that year.

Gausman hit free agency after that career year, and while the Cardinals did add a starter that offseason, they went the Steven Matz route instead.

Gausman has gone on to throw 359.2 innings with the Blue Jays the last two seasons, making 31 starts each year with a 3.25 ERA and 11.1 SO/9 over that stretch. he is everything the Cardinals could have wanted in a starter - a top-ten Cy Young finalist each of the last three years, a strikeout machine, and someone who makes every start while eating a ton of innings.

The craziest part of it all to me is that he got a five-year deal with an AAV of just $22 million. If he had free agency this offseason, he's likely looking at something closer to $30 million a year. Gausman has not only been an excellent pitcher but he's been a bargain as well for the Blue Jays.

Sure, it would have been more money, but it's hard to argue that spending the extra $10 million a year wouldn't have been worth it for St. Louis. Even heading into the 2022 season, they should have seen the need to get a top-of-the-rotation talent who could propel this pitching staff into the mid-2020s. Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas were not getting any younger, and outside of Matthew Liberatore at that time, there was no one really close to MLB-ready who had a promising future as a prospect.

Gausman was a really big miss by the organization, and I cannot help but wonder what his presence would have meant in the last two seasons and going into 2024.

Cody Bellinger

Last offseason, Cody Bellinger was looking for a one-year "prove it deal" to be able to recoup his value and hit the open market this offseason to cash in.

Well, he did all of that and then some.

After winning the MVP in 2019, Bellinger had a rough go of things from 2020-2022, ultimately being non-tendered by the Los Angeles Dodgers which allowed him to hit free agency. He hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 HR and 97 RBI for the Cubs in 2023 while playing elite defense in center field as well.

There was talk that the Cardinals were considering signing Bellinger if they had traded for Sean Murphy instead of signing Willson Contreras, but even with the Contreras signing, the Cardinals should have strongly considered bringing in Bellinger.

Center field was a mess for the Cardinals for most of 2023, and if they had Bellinger in the fold, they could have more easily dealt Tyler O'Neill or Dylan Carlson to grab pitching help, or even parted with other pieces to make it happen. His bat and defense would have elevated the team, and I'd imagine they would have been better suited to buy at the deadline as well if that had happened.

Even if things would have still fallen off the rails, the Cardinals could have traded Bellinger at the deadline for prospects, helping strengthen their position going in 2023 even further like their other deadline deals were able to.

Plus, the Cubs would not have had the resurgence happen on their own roster, which come on, that should have been even more reason to bring Bellinger to St. Louis instead.

Bryce Harper

Fans know this situation all too well. Following the 2018 season, the Cardinals had the opportunity, like all of Major League Baseball, to add a Hall of Fame level bat to their lineup in the form of Bryce Harper, and decided not to.

With Marcell Ozuna, Harrison Bader, and Dexter Fowler already patrolling their outfield, the Cardinals decided they were better off turning their attention elsewhere. They also justified the lack of aggression with emerging prospects like Tyler O'Neill and Dylan Carlson, which also proved to be a fatal mistake.

Here's the problem with that line of thinking. Harper wasn't just a really good player who would be an upgrade for their outfield, he was a generational hitter in his mid-20s who the free agent market was not valued as he should have been. This was the perfect opportunity for the Cardinals to add a future Hall of Famer to their roster, and yet, they did not see the opportunity there.

Harper had a career .900 OPS from his age 19 to 25 seasons, making six All-Star teams and winning the MVP at just age 22. Typically when you hand out big-time free agent contracts, you're paying for past performance and hoping they can keep it going, but in the case of Harper, he was about to get even better.

Over the last five seasons with the Phillies, Harper has posted a .931 OPS and 149 OPS+, and maybe even more importantly, has been a historically great hitter in the postseason as well.

The craziest part to me, not just in reference to the Cardinals but also the rest of baseball, is that Harper was just 26 years old when that extension started, and the average annual salary on his deal is only $25 million. Even if you doubt he'll be worth that for the last two or three years of that deal, the first ten seasons are at a bargain rate. With the rate of inflation as well, that number will seem a lot lower come 2030.

As things currently stand, Harper is just the 22nd highest-paid player on an annual basis in baseball, and will only fall in those rankings as the years go on. Every team in baseball should have tried to sign Harper, but instead, he fell right into the Phillies' lap.

Trea Turner, 2022

The last name on this list was another name that Cardinals fans clamored for last offseason, and instead landed with the Phillies like the aforementioned Bryce Harper.

There were some major differences between Tuner and Harper though was the contracts they got, as Turner got a slightly higher AAV compared to that of his superstar teammate, and was hitting free agency at age 29 instead.

Still, from 2019 to 2022, Turner had become one of the best players in all of baseball, slashing .311/.361/.509 while hitting 80 home runs and stealing 106 bases during that stretch. His power and speed combo is so rare, and he could have filled that shortstop void for the Cardinals in a big way.

Turner had a down year in 2023 with the Phillies but turned things on toward the end of the season. While we see big contracts flop from time to time, Turner seems to be comfortable in Philadelphia now, and I'd imagine he's back to his usual All-Star form in 2024.

The Cardinals, like the offseason prior, decided to give DeJong one more chance to prove himself and also had Tommy Edman available to play shortstop as needed. Obviously, the DeJong experience did not go well again, and Edman was able to fill the gap for the Cardinals, but he is just not the player that Turner is. Sure, Winn was coming, but again, he could have been used as a trade piece for the Cardinals instead, or Turner could have shifted to second base to make Nolan Gorman or Brendan Donovan available in trades.

Sure, things could end up again poorly for Turner and the Phillies and the tone here could change drastically, but for now, it's pretty disappointing that the Cardinals sat out of two elite free agent shortstop classes when they had a clear need, and even though I am very excited about Winn, that's a huge ask for him to be as good as guys like Seager or Turner.

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