6 drastic changes we could see the Cardinals make in 2024 if it's another disaster

At the St. Louis Cardinals annual Winter Warm-Up last weekend, Josh from Fort Lauderdale asked a question that's been sitting on the minds of many Cardinals fans since the 2023 season fell apart...

It feels like we are at an inflection point, and you look at certain writing on the wall like Oli's in the last year of his deal, you got Goldy in the last year, even the new signings were like three years or less, so the question is this - you plan for the worst and hope for the best, but if we get to the middle of the season and we are not doing well, how do you feel about a just total tear down, rebuild like the Astros did, like the Cubs have done and so forth?

"Wow", was the initial response given by Mozeliak. He shifted in his chair a bit and then began addressing the potential doomsday scenario.

Josh asks a very difficult question, the complete tear down, complete rebuild. And I feel like it's a very difficult question for us to do or maybe a strategy to actually try because of our fanbase. You know when you think about teams that are willing to do the teardown, start over, they're willing to basically go dark for a couple years. I don't think we are in a position to do that. And so did we leave ourselves a little door by doing the strategic way with those contracts, I suppose you could argue yes, but that really wasn't why we did it.

We really do believe in our young core coming, we're super excited about what we have, I don't think we see ourselves in a position though where we want to hit the reset button, even if we were to struggle this year. In terms of what that might look like, we are going to try to continue to win, we know we have a good young group coming, we're super excited about what we have at Memphis, so we really do feel like there's some momentum for future years..."

Clearly, Mozeliak was throwing a lot of cold water on the notion that they would consider a full-blown rebuild if the 2024 season was filled with more struggles and disappointment, and you can check out the full Q&A that Mozeliak did with fans below. But he didn't flat out shut down the notion either like he has done in the past, and some of his other comments this weekend seem to lend themselves to the notion that if things did go south, that's a least an option they could turn to if needed.

One of those indicators was regarding a potential extension with Paul Goldschmidt. When asked about the status of that, Mozeliak said "I think right now, I think everybody just wants to see how the season starts. You know, obviously, want to get off on the right track, and then we can address things like that".

There are multiple factors at play when it comes to those negotiations. The Cardinals want to see if Goldschmidt can rebound from a down 2023 season and Goldschmidt wants to see if the Cardinals can rebound as well.

There's also the third issue of CBA rules regarding contract extensions. Goldschmidt is set to make $22 million this year, and per CBA rules, the Cardinals cannot offer Goldschmidt a salary that is more than a 20% reduction from that number until he hits free agency. So that means the minimum that the Cardinals have to offer Goldschmidt in an extension now is at least $17.6 million.

Clearly, if Goldschmidt and the Cardinals both felt comfortable with that number, a deal would already be done. But it has not happened yet, even after reporting from someone like Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (subscription required) that the Cardinals would prefer to bring back Goldschmidt. Now, that report was before Winter Warm-Up, so maybe the Cardinals' stance has changed, but either way, it sounds like Goldy's future is up in the air at the moment.

Okay, so Mozeliak mostly shut down the notion that the Cardinals could rebuild after this season, and sure, Goldschmidt might now be signed to an extension, but how could any of that point to drastic changes coming if the Cardinals fail again in 2024? I believe that the Cardinals are confident that will be a winning team again this season. I believe they have every intention of trying to make the playoffs and feel good about the team they've constructed. But if 2023 taught Mozeliak anything, it's that he can be wrong, and this club could fall apart if things don't break right for them.

I'm also of the belief that this team is going to be a lot better than many fans give them credit for. The pitching additions and steps forward from the offense, mixed with a pretty weak division, give me confidence that they can get into the playoffs, but I have my doubts about where they can go from there. But I felt that way last year too, and things fell apart. So if a repeat of that happens in 2024, what could that lead the Cardinals to do?

While the Cardinals did become sellers at the 2023 Trade Deadline, something they really hadn't done in the John Mozeliak era leading up to that, they mostly refrained from any major changes outside of trading away rental players. No one really got fired, they added to their coaching staff instead of subtracting, and none of their cornerstone players had any doubt about being a Cardinal for the 2024 season. If the worst-case scenario happens for a second straight year though, I think we'll see major shakeups to an organization that values consistency and continuity.

Let me repeat, one more time, that I do not see this scenario playing itself out in 2024, but, I wanted to take some time to explore what could happen if the Cardinals fail again this coming season, so I identified six drastic changes we could see in St. Louis if the wheels fall off once again.

Drastic Change #1 - Managerial Change

I am a fan of Oliver Marmol as the team's manager. 2022 was a really good year for the first-year manager, and then 2023 was about as bad as it could get. I pinpoint a lot of the issues the Cardinals dealt with as roster construction related, which points to the front office's mistakes over that of Marmol. Still, it's pretty clear to everyone involved that results need to be different this season, or changes could be coming.

In my reflection of the eight Cardinals I was most impressed by during Winter Warm-Up, I placed Marmol on that list due to the accountability he has taken for 2023, the culture of trust and "team-first" mentalities that he is trying to build, and his desire to surround himself with great leaders. All of these are encouraging signs of the kind of leader Marmol wants to be in that clubhouse, but at the end of the day, results will dictate his future.

Speaking of great leaders around him, there's been a lot of discussion about the addition of Yadier Molina as a special advisor this year. Yadi has been very clear that he would like to manage one day, and it's easy to see why people are speculating that his first opportunity will come sometime this year or next season. If things go well for St. Louis, I'd bet they stick with Marmol and give him an extension, but if things do go south again, Molina is likely the man in charge before the end of the season.

In this doomsday scenario for the Cardinals where they are clearly out of the race by the deadline again, I'd imagine Marmol is fired by the All-Star Break and replaced by Molina, if not sooner. Not only would the change be something that would help build fan interest during another lost season, but it would also help Molina get his feet wet as the official manager for the Cardinals and secure their next long-term plan as manager.

Both John Mozeliak and Bill DeWitt Jr. had opportunities at Winter Warm-Up to throw cold water on the Molina-Marmol dynamic, but neither really did. They both committed to Marmol as manager but frankly left the door open for a change to happen if needed. They should have that stance, but it felt odd to me that they wouldn't do anything to calm the narrative. Even if it's true, it doesn't help them to have people wondering all season long.

Drastic Change #2 - Moving Paul Goldschmidt at the Trade Deadline

Here's something that would feel pretty drastic, but also very realistic, if the Cardinals do not play well in 2024: Trading 2022 National League Most Valuable Player and future Hall of Famer Paul Goldschmidt.

As I talked about at the beginning of this piece, Goldschmidt is in the last year of his contract and an extension does not appear likely before the season begins. Both sides want to see how things go when it comes to both team success and Goldschmidt's performance and so unless the team and Goldschmdit are playing well midseason and both sides want to hammer it out, it's likely that Goldschmidt will hit free agency this winter.

Goldschmidt becoming a free agent doesn't mean he's leaving St. Louis. Again, CBA rules restrict some of the pay reductions we'd expect to see in Goldchmidt's next contract, so both sides have to wait for him to hit the open market if that is where they are trending. But, if the team is playing poorly in 2024, I think there's a good chance we see the Cardinals capitalize on his value at the deadline and bring in some young talent with their rental bat.

It is hard to say right now what kind of return the Cardinals could get for Goldschmidt. If he has a rebound season at the plate and looks like an All-Star caliber player, he may be the single best bat available in trade and could fetch a really nice return, possibly a top-100 prospect or two (just look at the Jordan Montgomery trade that netted St. Louis both Thomas Saggese and Tekoah Roby, both top 100 prospects). But if he looks like he did in 2023, he'll still have value, but a half-season of that bat isn't going to get them a ton in return.

Trading Goldschmidt would truly be a sign of change coming. If he walks away this offseason after playing out the full year in St. Louis, that could be because the Cardinals do not need him anymore or he found a bigger offer somewhere else. Trading him at the deadline would signal a second straight year of a seller's mode, and would accelerate a shift on this roster toward freeing up playing time for their young core.

Drastic Change #4 - Exploring a Nolan Arenado trade in the offseason

At this point in the exercise, I think it's important to acknowledge once again that I do not believe we will see some kind of full teardown this year, and that it would take a really bad season once again to even make the Cardinals consider some of these moves. Trading Nolan Arenado specifically would be one that takes a lot of variables to make it happen.

First, Arenado has committed to being a Cardinal in a significant way two different times now. First, he made it very clear he wanted to be a Cardinal when he was traded from the Rockies, which is why he ended up in St. Louis in the first place. Second, he decided to opt into his contract last offseason and commit to the organization for virtually the rest of his career. Arenado would have opted out and gotten more money from the Cardinals or another organization but decided this was where he wanted to be.

While it is easy to think the right answer is to just trade every veteran if an overhaul is coming, Arenado's commitment to St. Louis is something the Cardinals should not be quick to move on from. If he wants to remain in St. Louis, it's hard to imagine deciding to move him anyway, but crazier things have happened.

From the Cardinals' perspective, if they were tearing things down, they do have natural third-base replacements in Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, and Thomas Saggese. I doubt they'd move Jordan Walker back there, but they certainly could if they wanted to.

The second piece of this is the money, especially if Arenado isn't back to his board-line MVP-caliber play again. Arenado is set to make $35 million this year, $32 million in 2025, $27 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027. The declining nature of the dollars per season makes this contract a lot easier to stomach, but that's still about $75 million the Cardinals could save between 2025-2027 if Arenado was traded.

From Arenado's perspective, he's a competitive guy, and if St. Louis is about to go into a full-blown youth movement, does he really want to spend the final phase of his career there? Maybe this is the time when he finally ends up with the Dodgers like many have speculated over the years, or another potential suitor emerges that Arenado is comfortable with.

A big piece of this puzzle is going to be Arenado's health and on-field performance. It's no secret his back was an issue in 2023, and if it's going to be a nagging issue for years to come, that will hurt his trade value. If Arenado proves that 2023 was just a weird year and he's back to his elite play, the Cardinals could fetch more in a trade for him in the process. A lot will also depend on how much money they are willing to eat on the deal, and if Arenado is open to multiple teams or just a few.

All of these complicated factors would lead me to believe that an Arenado trade would not happen until the offseason, but I'm not ruling it out at the deadline if a team really wants him and the Cardinals have accepted a rebuild coming.

Drastic Change #5 - John Mozeliak's succession plan accelerated

John Mozeliak confirmed again this weekend that the plan currently is to step away from his role following the 2025 season, and that a succession plan would be worked on between now and then.

Because of the drastic decisions that are being made in this scenario, it would only make sense to accelerate that timeline, or at least allow the next president of baseball operations to have a significant say in franchise-altering moves that would be happening during this teardown. The deadline decisions would likely be handled by John Mozeliak and the current structure of things, but by the time the offseason rolls around, the next guy would need to be calling the shots as well to shape their future roster.

Chaim Bloom has been the name to watch ever since the Cardinals made it official that he is coming on in an advisor role this offseason. Mozeliak did not give cadence to Bloom being the next guy at Winter Warm-Up, but both he and DeWitt Jr. thought highly of Bloom and both of them wanted him to be a part of this front office group. In the words of Mozeliak, it "at the very least it strengthens our bench".

Bloom was a major part of the Rays' success with player development during the 2010s, an organization that continues to find ways to win even with a very limited payroll and has especially found success when it comes to pitching development. Bloom then took on the role of the Chief Baseball Officer for the Boston Red Sox but was let go after a disappointing tenure with the club. Bloom did have an ALCS appearance with Boston and built their farm system into one of the best in baseball before he was let go.

Outside of Bloom, guys like Michael Girsch and Randy Flores stand out as potential replacements for Mozeliak, and each brings their own share of qualifications. Girsch is regarded highly around baseball and has been sought after for high-ranking roles with other clubs. Flores is a rising name in the industry and has done an excellent job as the Assistant General Manager and Director of Scouting.

Even if things go well in 2024, shifts would begin to happen at the end of the year, but if things go poorly, I think all of that will be accelerated and made public before they originally intended.

Drastic Change #6 - Cardinals turn to their youth to compete in 2025

Even if the Cardinals trade Goldschmidt, Arenado, and a variety of other pieces that could bring back value, make a managerial change, and shift within the front office, I do believe they'd try to compete during the 2025 season on the backs of their young core. It's impossible to predict the kind of assets they could get in return for moving Goldschmidt, Arenado, Edman, Matz, Helsley, and other pieces, but assuming they compile varying levels of value from that bunch, they'd also have their own young core to lead them for years to come.

Look at the potential*** lineup they could run out, even without those veteran guys,

2B Brendan Donovan
RF Jordan Walker
LF Lars Nootbaar
DH Willson Contreras
3B Nolan Gorman
C Ivan Herrera
1B Thomas Saggese
SS Masyn Winn
CF Victor Scott II

Other names: OF Alec Burleson, OF Dylan Carlson, 1B/DH Luken Baker, assets back from trades they made

***Not to mention the possibility of add

Nootbaar, Gorman, and Donovan would be entering year four of their big league careers, Walker would be in his third full season, and guys like Herrera, Saggese, Winn, and Scott would be second-year players. If they continue to develop like many believe they will, this lineup may not even take much of a step back by the time the 2025 season rolls around.

The pitching staff would likely still have Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas, and young arms like Gordon Graceffo, Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, Michael McGreevy, Cooper Hjepre, Max Rajcic, and Zack Thompson may be ready to take on roles as well. If they were to move on from Arenado, Goldschmidt, Matz, and Edman, at least $75 million off their books as well that can be reallocated to the lineup, rotation, or bullpen, along with any piece they got in return for those players.

It would definitely be a building year as a club, kind of a similar position as the Cincinnati Reds in 2023, or other young lineups that are trying to establish themselves as core groups. The major question mark would remain the pitching staff, and they'd need to make more additions to the staff to have any idea of what they could accomplish. I think the main point here is that this club has young talent who are ready to start stepping into more significant roles.

So if they were to run into this "doomsday" scenario this next season, it would not turn into some full-scale, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs, or Baltimore Orioles tank job. They have plenty of young talent already and would be able to mold a new era of Cardinals baseball around them and use the freed-up money to fill out this roster and extend players long-term. In this scenario, they'd strengthen their system again with trades, similar to what happened at this last deadline, and both the 2024 and 2025 MLB drafts would see the Cardinals have a top-10 draft selection. It would be a quick, but painful, turnaround.

If you want to hear more about the though process, check out our conversation over the six drastic changes over on the Noot News Podcast below.