6 difficult roster decisions the St. Louis Cardinals must address ASAP

The St. Louis Cardinals are in a pickle right now.

Coming into the season, the club wanted to have a strong rebound from their putrid 2023 campaign. While they are in the mix for playoff contention right now, hovering a few games below .500 at this point in the season is the kind of bounceback you'd expect from a deflated basketball, not an organization looking to distance itself from one of the worst seasons in franchise history.

And yet, there are multiple things that are making aggressive action difficult for the Cardinals. John Mozeliak was very clear in his time with bloggers and podcasters this past Saturday that he wants to add to this club and named some glaring needs, but the trade market can be a tricky thing to navigate this early in the summer.

There are also potential answers to their solutions coming off the injured list soon (at least we think). Willson Contreras, who was one of the best hitters in all of baseball before going down with a broken forearm in early May, can breathe some life into this lineup soon. Arms like Steven Matz, Riley O'Brien, and Giovanny Gallegos appear to be on their way back to the club very soon. And of course, the ghost of Tommy Edman still makes an appearance any time Mozeliak talks about the roster, and it sounds like he'll be heading on a rehab assignment soon. Lars Nootbaar is likely out until near the All-Star Break.

So reinforcements might be just around the corner. But as we've seen with Edman all year and just recently with Keynan Middleton, setbacks happen. And even if they all return healthy, it does not mean they'll produce right away, if at all. Frankly, the Cardinals are running out of time to "wait and see", as they have a growing list of roster issues they need to address as soon as humanely possible.

Here are six difficult roster decisions the Cardinals have to figure out ASAP

1. It's time to find a fifth starter

I understand that Steven Matz will be back soon and that Andre Pallante has had really nice starts in his three chances this year. I was really high on Matz coming into the season as a bounce-back candidate and I've been an advocate for Pallante to take the Cardinals' fifth rotation spot as of late, but neither can be relied on for the remainder of the season if this club wants to contend.

Honestly, the reason why goes beyond even just their own performances. The Cardinals are bound to experience another injury to the rotation at some point, and with how shaky things have been with one arm down, imagine if two or more of their starting pitchers hit the injured list at the same time.

Mozeliak has been clear that he has not seen enough from any of the Memphis starters to have confidence in any of them to take the ball for St. Louis in the near future. A lot could change over the next six weeks, but the Cardinals don't really have that kind of time available to them.

The lack of a true fifth option in their rotation hurts not only the club's ability to win when the fifth spot in the rotation takes the mound but also has an impact on the club on other days of the week as well. The bullpen is utilized often, especially their high-leverage arms, and while I am not in the camp that the Cardinals have overused them, it is fair to say the Cardinals can't really seem to win games without them. That's not a great recipe for long-term success.

I was intentional with the words I used here - the Cardinals need to find a fifth starter, but I'm very open to that guy being better than just a number five starter. Acquiring a Brad Keller type can help hold the club over, but names like Erick Feede would be even better. Frankly, I don't see the Cardinals entertaining a move for someone like Garrett Crochet or Justin Verlander at this year's deadline, as the Cardinals lack the farm system depth to pull off such a move without cratering their long-term outlook.

The Cardinals are in a winnable stretch of games that could put them in a firm driver's seat in the Wild Card race, but without a legit fifth starter, that becomes really difficult to pull off.

3. How much longer can the Cardinals wait for Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado to heat up before bumping them to the bottom of the order?

As I addressed in the previous roster decision, the Cardinals just don't have many options right now, so it's hard to argue that the Cardinals should be bumping Goldschmidt or Arenado even further down in the order. But if their guys come back healthy soon or they were to add another bat from outside the organization, I think a real conversation needs to be had if Goldschmidt and Arenado are not hitting still.

Over his last 30 games, Goldschmidt is slashing .242/.304./.411 at the plate with just 5 home runs and 14 RBI. Things have certainly heated up over the last 15 games, but not to the point that fans should be ready to count on Goldschmidt to produce daily at the plate. Arenado has really struggled though, posting a .224/.281/.371 slash line, with his numbers being even worse in recent weeks. Once Contreras and Nootbaar are back in the lineup, it's hard to imagine a scenario where they keep both Goldschmidt and Arenado in the middle of the order without some major improvements in their play.

Should their struggles continue, I'd consider this lineup when they are back to full strength offensively...

1. SS Masyn Winn
2. RF Lars Nootbaar
3. C Willson Contreras
4. 2B Nolan Gorman
5. DH Alec Burleson
6. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
7. LF Brendan Donovan
8. 3B Nolan Arenado
9. CF Tommy Edman

Will they do that? Probably not. But by the time Nootbaar, Contreras, and Edman all return to the lineup, we'll be in the middle of July, and there will be too much season played at that point to say "They'll break out eventually". It doesn't mean they won't, but the Cardinals need to put their best bats in the best spots in the order, and both Arenado and Goldschmidt do not fit the bill as that when the club is fully healthy.

I think it's time to have serious conversations and prepare for that reality to come sooner rather than later. If either or both of them break out, then great! Have them slug in the middle of the order like they are paid to do. But if not, they should not be getting prime positioning in the lineup over names like Winn, Nootbaar, Contreras, Gorman, or Burleson.

4. Can the Cardinals afford to wait until the trade deadline to add more bullpen help?

Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, and Andrew Kittredge have formed the "Big 3" for the Cardinals this season. Sure, they have not been perfect, with Kittredge specifically cracking more often as of late, but they are about as good of a late-inning trio as you could have, and the Cardinals need to make sure that remains a strength for them.

Matthew Liberatore, John King, and Ryan Fernandez make up a really impactful trio behind them as well, giving St. Louis six arms they can rely on during games. So why is there such a need to add more arms to this mix? They even have someone like Chris Roycroft who continues to impress as of late.

Well, the issue comes from the fact that they really do need this bullpen to excel whenever it is called upon, and they go multiple arms from it on a daily basis. Unless the rotation starts eating innings consistently again or the lineup breaks open more games to take stress off their relievers, the Cardinals need to have plenty of relievers to cycle through in order to keep up the kind of production they need from it.

The need really comes from the right side at this moment. With Helsley locked into save situations only, the Cardinals need more than just Kittredge and Fernandez to go to from the right side. Romero and King have nice reverse splits, but it's helpful to have more right-handed arms when playing matchups each day. Roycroft may emerge as that guy, but they still need to see more from him before it's fair to put him in that conversation.

Riley O'Brien just began a rehab assignment and Giovanny Gallegos has been on his own as well, but even if both can return and be impactful arms, we've seen just how easy it is for this bullpen to thin out due to injuries. Mozeliak has been open about how contenders always need to add to their bullpen, so that seems to be in the Cardinals' plans right now, but how long can they wait for reinforcements?

I do think names like Roycroft, O'Brien, and Gallegos will determine that here soon. If they can rise to the occasion, or someone like Kyle Leahy or Gordon Graceffo, then they'll be fine until the end of July. But if things go south performance-wise or more injuries occur, this bullpen gets thin quickly. That is not an inditement on the front office, they did a really nice job rebuilding this bullpen during the offseason, but you have to adjust to the cards you are being dealt.

Losing Middleton for the year hurts. Being without O'Brien and Gallegos for long stretches is tough as well. Using Liberatore as a rotation piece for a few weeks contributed to the lack of depth for a bit as well.

If the Cardinals feel confident in their bullpen mix for the next few weeks, great. They just need to make sure they are using all eight guys and lessening the workload on the "Big 3" as they can. But if the offense and rotation cannot do their part to make that possible, the Cardinals may have no choice but to go out and grab an arm this early for the bullpen.

5. How many more chances can the Cardinals give Dylan Carlson before moving on from him?

I feel bad for Dylan Carlson, I really do. But things have just taken a nose dive for him since the summer of 2022, and it may be time to cut their losses with him and move on once the club gets healthy again - or if they just decide to make one of those upgrades sooner and use him as part of that package.

On the season, Carlson is slashing .175/.277/.211 with 0 HR in 65 PA, occurring -0.5 WAR and posting a 52 wRC+. Even when Carlson struggled in the past, you could count on him to excel against left-handed pitching and play really solid defense, but even those have been in decline as of late.

It's a shame really. Carlson looked like a guy who was ready to rebound this year during Spring Training, but a collision with Jordan Walker in an exhibition game against the Cubs put him on the injured list to begin the year. Carlson played just 76 games in 2023 mostly due to injury and missed a lot of the second half of 2022 as well with injuries, so that is becoming a major theme in his career. He's also taken multiple steps back offensively year over year and looks nowhere near to the guy he was in 2021 when he finished 3rd in National League Rookie of the Year voting with a 111 wRC+ and 2.4 WAR season.

Carlson was a top-20 prospect in all of baseball not all that long ago, and I'm sure he still has a lot of that ability within him, but a change of scenery is likely needed for both sides at this point. When the Cardinals are fully healthy, Carlson is behind Nootbaar, Walker, Burleson, Donovan, Edman, and probably even Michael Siani on the depth chart now, and I think the Cardinals can get better use out of this roster spot and value by finding someone who wants to bet on his talent. He's had ample opportunities to prove himself for the Cardinals, but time has run out, and the only thing keeping his roster spot safe right now for me is that sheer about of injuries the Cardinals are dealing with.

Again, it is nothing against Carlson, I just think both sides are better off figuring out what Carlson's future looks like beyond his time in St. Louis sooner rather than later. Maybe he can help them acquire that bullpen arm or even be a part of a package to get a right-handed bat or starting pitcher?

6. What will Steven Matz's role with the club be upon his return?

I referenced earlier that I was high on Matz coming into the year. Not that he would be some top-end starter, but out of the guys in their rotation not named Sonny Gray, he may have the best stuff and could provide the Cardinals with high-quality outings throughout the year.

The lack of consistency from Matz remains an issue though, and that is if he is even on the field at all. The injuries have caused Matz to miss significant time each of his seasons in St. Louis, meaning the Cardinals cannot go into August and September with him as one of the five guys they are relying on.

Matz also has struggled to give you many innings. That's part of the game today, but when you mix in the very inconsistent performances and the lack of durability, it's another knock against him.

What should the Cardinals do when he returns soon from injury? Insert him into the rotation over Andre Pallante? Spend some time in the bullpen as a long-reliever and spot starter? Shift into more of a pure reliever role to give the Cardinals another excellent option from the left side?

To me, I think they need to allow him to start again if Pallante's fourth start does not go well, and then make him the clear and obvious candidate to move to the bullpen once they acquire another starter. Again, another injury to someone else in the rotation could happen, so with the lack of starting pitching depth they have right now, I don't see why it would make sense to move him to the bullpen full-time at this moment.

Once the Cardinals do acquire another starter though, Matz could operate out of the bullpen, or they could even shop him around and see if there is a club that really needs starting pitching and wants to take a shot at him. He has one year, $12 million owed to him next year, which is usually the bare minimum a starter gets on the open market these days anyway, so I think the Cardinals could potentially dump the remainder of that contract as long as they don't ask for anything of value in return.