6 Cardinal prospects whose stocks have risen and 4 whose stocks have fallen

The St. Louis Cardinals are in desperate need of some prospects to hit. After watching former prospects like Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, Lane Thomas, and now Dylan Carlson see success outside of the organization, it becomes even more imperative that the organization have prospects play well for them.

The last time the Cardinals had a top-10 farm system in baseball according to Baseball America was 2023, but prior to that, you'll have to go back to 2014 to find a top-10 farm system in baseball. While the Cardinals have floated in the 10-15 range among farm system rankings recently, they haven't been able to find that top-10 collection of prospects in the minors.

Former top prospects Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn have graduated. Matthew Liberatore lost his prospect shine. Dylan Carlson never quite panned out for the Cardinals. Nolan Gorman started off strong, but he's fizzled out these past two seasons. The organization's drop in the league for prospects is expected.

Starting with the trade deadline last year, John Mozeliak and his team have been able to replenish the farm system slightly. Add in this year's #7 overall pick in JJ Wetherholt, and it would seem logical that the Cardinals would see a jump in the rankings. However, that hasn't been the case. Bleacher Report ranked the Cardinals' farm system 17th overall to start the year, and they dropped to 18th after the MLB draft.

The stagnation is due to a few things: Masyn Winn is no longer a prospect, some high-end prospects haven't played well this year, and other organizations have simply caught up to the Cardinals in terms of player development. The Cardinals can no longer say that they have been able to turn prospects into stars in the majors.

Despite the lack of growth as a system overall, several players have strengthened their case this year. Conversely, some former top prospects haven't quite played up to expectations, and their future heights aren't what was once expected of them.

These six players have increased their prospect stocks in 2024, and four others have seen their stocks fall this year.

Michael McGreevy's stock has risen this year.

In 2022, Michael McGreevy was the organization's 8th-best prospect. The tall righty was known for his control and his ability to throw strikes. His fastball would touch 95 miles per hour often, and he had a decent slider and curveball to pair with it. McGreevy was never supposed to be a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, but he figured to be a serviceable back-end starter.

Since 2021, McGreevy has been pretty steady. He hasn't reached the heights that were possible, but he also hasn't fallen mightily. He finished 2022 with a 3.99 ERA and 117 strikeouts in 144.1 innings, and he had a 4.12 ERA with 123 strikeouts in 153 total innings last year. He's never been a strikeout pitcher, but he's done a fine job at limiting runs.

McGreevy's numbers this year are nearly identical to his numbers the last two years. In 133 innings at Memphis this year, McGreevy has a 4.13 ERA with 117 strikeouts and an opponent batting average of .260. He's done better at limiting hits this year, but he's also walked a career-high 41 batters.

What has boosted McGreevy's stock was his outing in St. Louis in July. He threw seven innings, struck out three batters, walked just one, and allowed only one run in the outing against Texas. It would be his first -- and only -- major league victory, as he was sent back down to Memphis following the outing.

This is a microscopic sample size, but his outing gave fans hope that perhaps the organization has developed its first real starting pitching prospect who can contribute in the rotation since Jack Flaherty.

Won-Bin Cho's stock has fallen after lackluster performances this year.

Prior to the start of the 2024 season, I believed, with some professional help, that Won-Bin Cho would be the breakout hitter in the organization this year. That hasn't been the case, as the South Korean outfielder hasn't been able to continue his offensive ascent that he started last year.

Instead of building upon his 2023 season that featured him slashing .270/.376/.389 with seven home runs and 32 stolen bases, Cho has taken a huge step back. He was promoted to High-A Peoria to start the year, and he's stayed there for the entirety of the 2024 campaign. He is slashing .228/.314/.306 with only two home runs and 10 stolen bases.

Heading into this year, Cho needed to lift the ball more, as his fly ball rate between 2022 and 2023 was nearly cut in half. He's done just that, as he has been hitting fly balls at a 32.1% rate; however, his line drive percentage fell to just 20.6%, and his groundball rate remained elevated at 47.4%. To make matters worse, he's striking out 31.3% of the time (21.7% last year), and he's taking walks just 8.6% of the time (14.2% last year).

Cho is still only 21 years old, so he has ample time to fine-tune these skills. The Cardinals seem intent on developing him as a center fielder, as he's played 638.1 innings out there this year with just one error. He has decent speed, and his arm should play given the fact that he was a pitcher.

Thomas Saggese hasn't been able to replicate his ridiculous 2023 season.

Pretty much anything Thomas Saggese did this year would be a step down from his 2023 season, so that's a bit unfair to him. However, the offensive drop for the versatile infielder has been precipitous. It's possible that he's been focusing on his defense this year -- he's been used primarily as a shortstop -- and that's been the cause of his downfall.

Last year, Saggese ended the season with a .331/.403/.662 slash line, 10 home runs, and a 168 wRC+ in Double-A Springfield. He appeared in just 13 games at Memphis, and he finished his time there with a .207/.270/.345 slash line and a 51 wRC+. Perhaps his struggles at Memphis last year were a sign of things to come this year.

He is currently slashing .247/.308/.431 this year for a wRC+ of just 89 in 113 games. He's hit 18 home runs and stolen nine bases, but he hasn't been able to hit with as much power as he did in Springfield last year. Once again, he was bound to come back down to earth, but the dropoff has been great this year.

Saggese's batted ball profile has become quite pull-heavy, as he has a 47.7% pull rate in Memphis. He spread the ball around last year at a 32.7% pull rate, 34.7% up-the-middle rate, and a 32.7% opposite field rate. His tendencies to pull the ball this year have resulted in less output. He's also hitting significantly more groundballs this year than last year, thus limiting his slugging potential.

Saggese is still only 22 years old, and he has proven himself across multiple levels offensively. I'm not worried about his future prospects, but his stock has dropped some this year after an inability to get close to his 2023 production.

Tink Hence continues to boost his stock.

Tink Hence has been the organization's top pitching prospect for two years now and deservedly so. The right-handed pitcher boasts a potent one-two mix in his fastball and changeup. He's touched 99 with his fastball from time to time, and his change-up generates whiffs at an unbelievable rate. His stuff is off the charts, and he's the best pitching prospect the organization has seen since Jack Flaherty.

The issue with Hence is that he hasn't broken 100 innings in a season yet. There are two reasons why he's been unable to cross that threshold: first, injuries have limited his availability. Shoulder injuries have brought him down a couple of times in his minor-league career. Second, the Cardinals have been extremely protective with the 2020 draft pick. For months early on in his professional career, he never surpassed 60 pitches or four innings. It's taken until this season for the Cardinals to really let him loose.

In 17 games (70.2 innings) at Double-A Springfield, Hence has a 2.67 ERA with 94 strikeouts and just 22 walks. Hitters are batting just .201 against him, and he has a 1.05 WHIP. All of those figures are better than his numbers last year. Hence's 33.3% K rate is the highest it's been since his time at Low-A in 2022, and his walk rate hasn't been elevated this year.

There's not much of a chance Tink Hence sees major league innings early next year. The Cardinals have been patient with his development, so it's likely he continues the track he's on now and he pitches at Triple-A Memphis to at least start 2025. However, the future is bright for the Cardinals' rotation between Tink Hence and another player on this list.

Tekoah Roby's injuries have lowered his stock this year.

The Cardinals acquired Tekoah Roby at last year's trade deadline with Thomas Saggese and John King for Chris Stratton and Jordan Montgomery. Initially, Roby was the headlining prospect in this deal. He was a top-100 prospect according to some outlets despite some concerns about his injury history.

Roby features a plus fastball that can hit 100 at times and a curveball with great drop to it. He recently added a slider, but hitters are able to time it up well when he leaves it up in the zone. Roby doesn't walk many batters (career walk rate around 7%), but he also hasn't been striking out batters much these past two years.

What has caused Roby's stock to drop is his output this year. He's walking 7.8% of batters, a career-high, and he's striking out just 21.4% of batters, a career-low. Roby has also largely been unavailable this year due to a shoulder injury in May; he has yet to throw since then. Prior to his injury, Roby threw only 33.1 innings across seven starts. He had a 6.75 ERA and a 6.60 FIP in that time period. He was recently activated to play at Low-A Palm Beach in a rehab assignment.

Roby has always come with injury concerns, but his past production was great when he was healthy. This will be the third season in a row in which Tekoah Roby has thrown fewer than 50 innings, so his stock has continued to fall. If he is unable to be healthy next year and pitch well, he could be considered a lost prospect. Roby is only 22, but four straight seasons of underperformance and injuries are quite worrisome.

Chase Davis's stock has risen in 2024.

The Cardinals selected outfielder Chase Davis with last year's 19th-overall pick in the draft. Davis's start to his professional career was a bit rocky, but he's settled in this year. He finished 2023 with a .212/.366/.269 slash line and only six extra-base hits, all doubles. His on-base percentage was strong, but he didn't tap into his power that he flashed in college.

The script has been flipped this year for Davis. He started the year off in Low-A Palm Beach, but he has played his last 21 games in High-A Peoria. Since joining Peoria, Davis is slashing .291/.364/.367 with two doubles and a home run. His strikeout rate has fallen to just 22.7% this year, but his walk rate has also dropped to just 8%. He has a 115 wRC+ in Peoria this year.

Davis touts decent speed, but he's stolen only nine bases this year. He doesn't profile as a burner, so watch him to swipe around 10 bags a year normally. The left-handed hitter has always shown a penchant for power to all fields, and him dropping his strikeout rate is quite promising assuming he maintains a decent power approach.

Defensively, Davis has found himself playing in center field most often, as he's logged 552 innings total this year there. He has committed a total of three errors in center field this year. Davis has a plus arm, so he likely profiles best in the corner outfield, a place where he can be a strong defender with a good offensive approach.

After a rough start to his professional career last year, Chase Davis has settled in quite nicely in the Cardinals' system. He likely won't see the majors next year, but his continued development bodes well for his 2026 season and beyond.

Victor Scott II's stock isn't what it once was for a variety of reasons.

Outside of Tink Hence, Victor Scott II was the most exciting prospect prior to the 2024 season. He had a spectacular 2023 season, and his speed paired with great defense in the outfield made him an exciting prospect.

I'm not here to say that Scott is no longer good; quite the opposite actually. He is still a great defender with burning speed, but his development was stunted due to a need on the major league roster for a center fielder to start and end the 2024 season. Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman were hurt to start 2024, and now neither is on the roster, and Michael Siani is still on the injured list.

Scott's stagnation is by no fault of his own. Rather, it's an inconvenience that has hampered his development as a prospect. He finished 2023 in Springfield with a .323/.373/.450 slash line for a 119 wRC+. He stole a total of 94 bases last year across two levels, and he appeared to be putting it all together offensively while still being a stud in center.

This year, Scott has a .219/.302/.318 slash line in Triple-A Memphis and a .150/.197/.265 slash line in the majors. He simply wasn't ready for the highest level of baseball, and it's showing. It's quite unfair to him that he was pushed to these levels at such a young age, but his output at the Triple-A and MLB levels this year has lowered his ceiling slightly. He still boasts plus defense and speed, but his bat skills haven't translated the way fans initially hoped they would.

Cooper Hjerpe continues to rise in prospect rankings.

A former top pitching prospect coming out of college, Cooper Hjerpe was taken 22nd overall in the 2022 draft. His first season was stunted due to elbow surgery, and he pitched in the Arizona Fall League in 2023 with average numbers. The Cardinals have been careful with Hjerpe to an extent, as his 52.1 innings this year is a career-high.

Hjerpe's fastball won't blow anyone away, but he uses a sweeper with plenty of horizontal break and a changeup that moves in the opposite direction. His sweeper is probably his best pitch.

Hjerpe's sidearm motion allows for plenty of deception, and that has allowed him to rack up strikeouts. He has struck out 12.27 batters per nine innings this year at Double-A Springfield for a K rate of 35.1%. Prior to his promotion to Springfield this year, Hjerpe was striking out 35.2% of batters in Peoria. His walk rates have always been a concern, and he is sitting at 14% in Springfield after just four starts.

Hjerpe has an ERA below 3.35 this year between the two levels, so he's done a good job at limiting run damage. If Hjerpe can continue striking out batters at an absurd rate while limiting run damage, he has the potential to be a strong pitcher in the majors. His elevated walk rates are concerning, but he didn't display control issues in college. If he can get his walks under control, Hjerpe's stock will continue to rise.

Quinn Mathews is quietly becoming one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.

When the Cardinals selected Quinn Mathews in the 4th round of last year's draft, most people only knew him as a guy who threw an absurd amount of pitches in the College World Series. The Cardinals must have seen much more in him at the time, as he's now mentioned with Tink Hence as the organization's best pitching prospect. In fact, national outlets are even starting to recognize his talent.

The southpaw stands at 6-foot-5 with great extension. His best pitch is by far his changeup, as it generates a crazy amount of whiffs. His fastball has also touched 98 MPH this year, though it normally sits around 95 MPH. He's done much better at limiting walks this year than he did in his college career.

Mathews has been utterly dominant all year no matter where he's pitched. He leads all of the minor leagues with 180 strikeouts in only 126.2 innings. He has a 2.27 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, a 2.52 FIP, and batters are hitting just .165 against him. There are few minor league pitchers who have had a better year than Mathews, and one of them -- Paul Skenes -- is dominating in the majors right now.

Mathews's excellent rookie season has vaulted him into discussions for the Cardinals 2025 rotation. If he can stay healthy and continue to develop, he may be penned in by the end of the spring training next year. The Cardinals have been unable to develop a dominant starting pitching prospect recently, and Mathews may be just that guy.