6 Cardinal players who are poised to take off in 2024

The St. Louis Cardinals have a fairly young lineup. The pitching is one of the oldest in Cardinals' history, but the position players have youth and experience spread throughout. Due to the age of players like Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, and Masyn Winn, among others, there is a high possibility that at least one of the young studs on the Cardinals will break out in 2024.

Optimism abounds during Spring Training and the offseason in general. Every team in baseball has the same record, 0-0, and the organization's offseason moves allow fans to have hope for the upcoming season. Cardinals fans should have every reason to be excited about the potential for these 6 players to break out in 2024.

Nolan Gorman

After an injury scare toward the end of last season, reports indicate that Nolan Gorman is progressing full speed ahead this spring. He is without limitation as of now with his preparation for the season. Gorman's power potential and defensive improvements set him up for a breakout campaign in 2024.

Many advanced metrics point to Gorman's ascension this year. He was 36th in baseball in hard hit percentage, 19th in barrels per plate appearance percentage, and he was 5th in home run totals for second basemen last year, although Mookie Betts and Isaac Paredes played significant amounts of time at other positions.

Gorman's defense has also improved. According to Outs Above Average, Gorman had a value of -12 during his rookie year at second base. In just one year's time, he was able to improve that number to -2. That's an insane improvement, and if he can get even marginally better at second base, he could also become a plus defender.

Having a left-handed, power-hitting second baseman who has room for improvement defensively is potent for any team. Nolan Gorman, assuming he's healthy, is poised for a massive year in 2024. He will find his home in the middle of the lineup behind veterans Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, and he has the ability to be a top-3 second baseman in all of baseball next year.

Zack Thompson

Zack Thompson's role has been yo-yoed around these past two seasons. In AAA Memphis, Thompson has primarily been a starting pitcher with strong statistics. However, the big league club has been insistent on keeping him in the bullpen. This offseason, Thompson was instructed to prepare for a starting pitcher role, and that could make for a strong season for the left-handed pitcher out of Selma, Indiana.

A former first-round pick, Thompson is most known for his big curveball and decent fastball. His minor league numbers are a bit misleading due to missing the 2020 minor league season, but he is known for decent control and strong strikeout numbers. His 25.1% K rate last year in the majors, when paired with his 8.7% walk rate, is what the St. Louis rotation has been desperate for these last few years.

In just one spring appearance thus far, Thompson pitched two innings, allowed one hit, struck out one batter, walked another, and didn't allow a run. He would be a player to keep an eye on this spring, if not to see what the organization does with him then to see his growth and preparation for games. He and Matthew Liberatore will likely be piggy-backing or playing in split games, as they are likely competing for one of the final bullpen spots.

Providing the 26-year-old pitcher with some assurance on his role should spell success for Thompson. He will be able to prepare for games better, and his mindset will be stronger knowing whether he'll be a starting pitcher, a reliever, or a mix between the two. Given the injury concerns with Steven Matz and the potential for underperformance from Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, Thompson could be called upon next season to fill in 15 or so starts for the major league squad.

Whether Zack Thompson views the game from the dugout four out of five days or from behind a fence in the outfield, his 2024 season shows promise.

Ivan Herrera

After Andrew Knizner was not extended an arbitration contract, the keys to the backup catcher spot became Ivan Herrera's. The 23-year-old backstop figures to start about 40-50 games next year at catcher, and he could even see time as the designated hitter if his bat continues to show promise.

The greatest reason for optimism that Herrera will take off next year would be his stellar performance in the Caribbean Series this offseason. In 35 plate appearances for Panama, Herrera slashed .357/.486/.714 to go with 3 home runs, 5 walks, and 7 strikeouts. This potent offensive showing should lead him into a successful major league campaign in 2024.

Herrera maintains his rookie status this year, as he hasn't exceeded the rookie limits just yet. His output offensively in the majors thus far has been lackluster, but the young catcher showed progress last year. He is slashing .236/.339/.273 for an OPS+ of 73 in the majors for his career, but his slash line of .297/.409/.351 in 37 at-bats last year showed that he became more comfortable in his second showing at the highest level of baseball.

If Ivan Herrera can continue to progress offensively, especially in the power department, while maintaining his plus arm and glove, then the Cardinals will have one of the best backup catchers in baseball. In fact, a more even split between Willson Contreras and Ivan Herrera may benefit the team even more. With Yadier Molina on staff now, Herrera can lean on him for advice.

Look for a breakout season for Ivan Herrera in 2024, especially if he is able to see 300+ plate appearances next year. His performance in the Caribbean Series proves that he can hit at high levels, and his defense was his calling card throughout his minor league career. This combination should bode well for his 2024 showing.

Masyn Winn

Masyn Winn is being given every opportunity to take full control of the shortstop position. The top prospect in the Cardinals' system and a top-50 prospect in all of baseball this year, Winn has the prospect pedigree to lead to success next year. Even after the addition of veteran Brandon Crawford, Winn figures to start in as many games as possible at shortstop for the Cardinals barring underperformance.

Masyn Winn has already put on a strong spring showing; his plus-plus arm has been on display, and his tendency to get on base is starting to show. If he can continue heating up in Florida, his lackluster introduction to the highest level of baseball in 2023 can be forgotten. Winn, still only 21, is quite young for this level, so even an average bat will play given his superb defense.

In limited time at the majors last year, Winn showed an ability to not chase or whiff at pitches. This led to his better-than-average strikeout rate (19%). His walk rate was below average, but he showed improvement in patience between the 2022 and 2023 minor league seasons. His stolen base potential is also enticing given his plus speed.

Winn's health isn't a concern anymore this offseason after some back pains, so he is full-speed ahead for the remainder of the spring circuit. ZiPS projects Winn to slash .243/.301/.374 for an OPS+ of 88. Despite these pedestrian offensive statistics, he is still projected to accumulate 2.4 fWAR. If Winn can get on base more via walks and boost his power numbers slightly from those projections, we could see a 3-WAR season from the rookie shortstop.

Masyn Winn's defensive highlights will be electric enough to make him one of the most-watched players next year. If he can tap into the offensive potential that he showed across his minor league seasons, Winn can be poised for a season in which he receives Rookie of the Year votes.

Steven Matz

When the St. Louis Cardinals signed Steven Matz to a 4-year, $44 million deal in November of 2021, there was always a concern given his injury history. Those issues were not assuaged these past two seasons, as he barely surpassed 100 innings in only one season of the two seasons since signing his contract.

Matz is coming off the best season of his career in 2021 with the Toronto Blue Jays in which he pitched 150 innings with a 3.82 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 22.3% K rate, and a 1.33 WHIP. He tallied 2.7 fWAR that year. He reached the 150-inning mark two other times in his career, so there was hope he could reach that milestone once again.

Assuming Matz has a healthy season next year, he could vault into the team's #2 starting pitcher spot. Steven Matz has been working all offseason to prepare for the 162-game season through physical therapy sessions prior to throwing baseballs. This proactive approach to health will hopefully allow Matz to pitch greater than 130 innings for just the 5th time in 10 seasons.

Matz's best pitch last year was his sinker, a pitch that he threw over half of the time. His strength lies in his ability to induce soft outs, so don't expect much in the strikeout realm for the lefty.

ZiPS projects Steven Matz to make 31 appearances (19 starts) and pitch 112 innings. ZiPS projects the southpaw to finish 2024 with a 3.99 ERA, 3.98 FIP, a 73% groundball rate, and a 22.5% K rate paired with a 7.1% walk rate. While it is likely that Matz makes more starts thus increasing his innings total, those are strong numbers for a mid-rotation starting pitcher.

The Cardinals' rotation is desperate for a #2 starting pitcher. If Steven Matz can replicate his health and output of his 2021 season with the Blue Jays, he could fill that void for the team. He should have every opportunity to strut his stuff in the rotation next year.