Why this makes sense for St. Louis in the short-term:
Tarik Skubal is the most valuable starting pitcher in baseball outside of Paul Skenes. Last year, Skubal caught a ton of people's attention with his 2.80 ERA and 2.00 FIP in 15 starts, boasting an 11.43 K/9 while pitching for an awful Tigers team. His emergence, along with some of the other young talent in Detroit, is why I thought they could push for a playoff spot coming into 2024.
Well, the Tigers are sellers once again, and they have zero reason to let go of Skubal unless they are getting a haul in return. Skubal is a Cy Young candidate right now, posting a 2.34 ERA in 123 innings of work while maintaining a strikeout percentage over 30%. If any team is able to convince the Tigers to move him, he instantly becomes the ace of that staff.
The Cardinals desperately need another front-line starter, and while they could go after veterans that would cost them far less in terms of trade capital, how awesome would it be to have a Tarik Skubal at the top of their rotation right now? Skubal and Gray would make for an elite 1-2 punch, and with their dynamic bullpen, they have a real shot against most teams in playoff series. While this deal by no means helps their offense, St. Louis still has bats on the roster they expect to be better at some point.
This deal, like the Athletics one, allows the Cardinals to make a massive swing while only giving up one player from their MLB roster. Losing Lars Nootbaar would hurt a lot, but with the other left-handed bats they have, it isn't the worst thing in the world. Again, they are acquiring Tarik Skubal here. Frankly, if Detroit were to move Skubal, they would need pieces that could help them in the near future, so loading them with MLB-ready bats like Nootbaar, Walker, and Herrera along with a new pitching prospect in Hence could do the trick.
Why it makes sense for St. Louis long-term:
It is a lot of future value to give up, but Skubal still has two years of club control remaining after this year, and the Cardinals would be foolish not to do everything they can to extend him this offseason as well.
Skubal would give St. Louis a cost-controlled ace through the 2026 season, raising their ceiling for both 2024 and the years following. Losing Walker, Nootbaar, Herrera, and Hence is painful, but the Cardinals do have a lot of young bats on their major league roster right now and young pitching behind Hence to backfill as well.
It is very possible this deal ends up hurting St. Louis long-term if those names end up being key contributors for Detroit, but as is oftentimes with these trades, the team who gets the best player tends to win the deal. Now, I have been someone who has defended the Cardinals for not trading for Juan Soto, but that is because the deal to get him would have cost 50%-75% more in value than this deal even is, and Soto was not going to resign in St. Louis. If the Cardinals are trading for Skubal, they can and have to lock him up.
Again, I find it so unlikely that the Tigers move Skubal and even more unlikely that the Cardinals are the team to acquire him, but I think it is an interesting move to ponder.