5 wild blockbuster moves the Cardinals should consider at the trade deadline

Let me be clear, I don't think the St. Louis Cardinals are going to do anything wild or worthy of the term "blockbuster" at this year's trade deadline. That doesn't mean I don't think they could make "big" moves, but I highly doubt they will be making a huge swing this July.

To be frank, I don't think that is necessarily the wrong approach with this team. Most big splashes they could try to make would deplete their farm system and still leave them behind the best contenders in baseball in terms of World Series odds. I am by no means advocating for their biggest moves to be for guys like Tyler Anderson or Kevin Pillar, but I don't blame them for staying out of the Garrett Crochet sweepstakes, for example.

Still, the more and more I've thought about it, the more I have at least been intrigued by the idea of some potential bigger swings the Cardinals front office could make. I've been playing around with different trade scenarios involving some teams who have pieces the Cardinals would love to have, but at a massive cost. Again, while I doubt the Cardinals make a move of that magnitude over the next week, I think it's at least interesting to talk about what kinds of deals would make sense for them to consider.

Consider this a fun exercise about those "what if" scenarios we feel confident won't happen, yet if the Cardinals decided to be aggressive, it could make a lot of sense for them. For the following five deals, here are the parameters I worked with that made the deals make sense, even at the extreme costs they would require:

1. The deal has to hurt. If you're drawing up a blockbuster deal for the Cardinals and you feel completely comfortable with the pieces you're giving away, it is probably far from what it would actually take to pull off such a deal.
2. The deal has to address one or more of the Cardinals' current needs - front-line starting pitcher, bullpen help, or a right-handed bat for the lineup.
3. The player(s) the Cardinals are acquiring need to have some control beyond 2025. I do not see the Cardinals considering a blockbuster move where they move significant young talent in order to acquire someone who could be gone in a year and a half. There are great players that fit that mold like Nathan Eovaldi, Zach Eflin, and others, but those are not blockbuster deals by any means. But the kind of blockbuster player that does rule out is someone like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - a fun idea, but I don't see the Cardinals signing him long-term, so why would they give up a haul for the short time they'd have him?

Consider this exercise a list of deals I think the front office should at least pause and talk about for a while. It doesn't mean they should do any or all of these deals, but these are the kinds of packages that you at least have to have a meeting about, and probably multiple follow-ups. They are the kinds of moves that, while risky, could transform the team for both now and the future.

With that being said, here are five blockbuster trade ideas that the Cardinals should consider at this year's trade deadline.

Why this makes sense for St. Louis in the short-term:

Tarik Skubal is the most valuable starting pitcher in baseball outside of Paul Skenes. Last year, Skubal caught a ton of people's attention with his 2.80 ERA and 2.00 FIP in 15 starts, boasting an 11.43 K/9 while pitching for an awful Tigers team. His emergence, along with some of the other young talent in Detroit, is why I thought they could push for a playoff spot coming into 2024.

Well, the Tigers are sellers once again, and they have zero reason to let go of Skubal unless they are getting a haul in return. Skubal is a Cy Young candidate right now, posting a 2.34 ERA in 123 innings of work while maintaining a strikeout percentage over 30%. If any team is able to convince the Tigers to move him, he instantly becomes the ace of that staff.

The Cardinals desperately need another front-line starter, and while they could go after veterans that would cost them far less in terms of trade capital, how awesome would it be to have a Tarik Skubal at the top of their rotation right now? Skubal and Gray would make for an elite 1-2 punch, and with their dynamic bullpen, they have a real shot against most teams in playoff series. While this deal by no means helps their offense, St. Louis still has bats on the roster they expect to be better at some point.

This deal, like the Athletics one, allows the Cardinals to make a massive swing while only giving up one player from their MLB roster. Losing Lars Nootbaar would hurt a lot, but with the other left-handed bats they have, it isn't the worst thing in the world. Again, they are acquiring Tarik Skubal here. Frankly, if Detroit were to move Skubal, they would need pieces that could help them in the near future, so loading them with MLB-ready bats like Nootbaar, Walker, and Herrera along with a new pitching prospect in Hence could do the trick.

Why it makes sense for St. Louis long-term:

It is a lot of future value to give up, but Skubal still has two years of club control remaining after this year, and the Cardinals would be foolish not to do everything they can to extend him this offseason as well.

Skubal would give St. Louis a cost-controlled ace through the 2026 season, raising their ceiling for both 2024 and the years following. Losing Walker, Nootbaar, Herrera, and Hence is painful, but the Cardinals do have a lot of young bats on their major league roster right now and young pitching behind Hence to backfill as well.

It is very possible this deal ends up hurting St. Louis long-term if those names end up being key contributors for Detroit, but as is oftentimes with these trades, the team who gets the best player tends to win the deal. Now, I have been someone who has defended the Cardinals for not trading for Juan Soto, but that is because the deal to get him would have cost 50%-75% more in value than this deal even is, and Soto was not going to resign in St. Louis. If the Cardinals are trading for Skubal, they can and have to lock him up.

Again, I find it so unlikely that the Tigers move Skubal and even more unlikely that the Cardinals are the team to acquire him, but I think it is an interesting move to ponder.

Why it makes sense for St. Louis in the short-term:

This trade may be far more realistic come the offseason, but the Cardinals and Mariners continue to feel like the answer to each other's questions, and whether it is Bryan Woo or one of the seemingly endless set of arms the Mariners have on their roster, the Cardinals would be wise to acquire one.

KMOV's Brendan Schaeffer and I briefly discussed on our new podcast "Philosophical Differences" how the Mariners and Cardinals seem like that match made in heaven on paper, but in practice, both sides are going to have a hard time coming to an agreement due to how they value each of their bats and arms. There isn't a clear one-for-one swap that makes sense for both sides, so one side will likely need to include a kicker to get something done if they ever did. Still, with how desperate the Mariners are for offense, they may have to change that tune.

I'm sure the Mariners would much rather take Emerson Hancock and another piece to acquire someone like Gorman, but in this scenario, I am going to have the Cardinals taking Gorman and Thomas Saggese to acquire Mariners' starter Bryan Woo.

Woo debuted for Seattle last year, posting a 4.21 ERA in 18 starts, flashing his electric stuff in the process. Woo has battled an injury this year but has stepped up his game even more, posting a 2.54 ERA in his 10 starts. Woo still has room to grow in his game in terms of missing bats, and if he is able to get more punchouts as the years go on, he could be a future front-line starter. The results certainly feel like one right now.

Why it makes sense for St. Louis long-term:

The Cardinals have young arms coming in Tink Hence, Quinn Mathews, and Cooper Hjerpe along with others, but getting a guy in their rotation now with upside and control would be a major get. It would be fun to swing higher for George Kirby or Logan Gilbert, but I really do not see the Mariners parting with either of them any time soon.

The Mariners' offense is so bad right now, and they just had Julio Rodriguez land on the injured list as well (not that he's been all that great either). They need to add multiple pieces to this offense at the deadline, and Gorman would be a valuable start. His inconsistencies won't be pleasant, but his ability to take over games with his power would be huge for Seattle.

I've already said it a few times, but losing one left-handed bat is not the end of the world for the Cardinals. This scenario would actually allow St. Louis to bring back Ivan Herrera and DH him frequently with the at-bats that need to be covered, and assuming they add another right-handed bat for the outfield, Donovan can slide back to second base. Gorman has been underwhelming overall this year, so while he still could produce down the stretch, the Cardinals aren't losing someone who is currently producing.

Why it makes sense for St. Louis in the short-term:

I know this will never happen. There is just no way that the Cubs would trade Justin Steele to the Cardinals. I also do not see the Cardinals giving up this kind of talent to their division rival. But let's be honest, the framework makes a lot of sense.

The Cubs plan on selling at this year's deadline after another disappointing season. Chicago is not going to go into some full-scale rebuild, but there are rumors that they will consider maximizing Steele's value to help the club going forward. My oh my, Steele would be the perfect fit with Gray at the top of the Cardinals' rotation.

In 15 starts for the Cubs this year, Steele has a 3.07 ERA while covering 91 innings, and Steele continues to be elite at not allowing hard contact and getting hitters to expand their zones. Not only that, but lefties tend to excel when pitching at Busch Stadium, so we could even see the best of Steele yet to come in a Cardinal uniform.

Gray and Steele would give the Cardinals a formidable duo this October, and in this package, not require a single piece from their Major League roster to be moved. Hence is a top pitching prospect in all of baseball that would bolster an already loaded Cubs system, and Gordon Graceffo would provide them with further pitching depth that can cover innings now as well.

Ivan Herrera has his clear weaknesses defensively, but the Cubs have had terrible production from their catcher position ever since they let Willson Contreras walk in free agency. Developing Herrera behind the plate now could give the Cubs an everyday catcher to match up with Contreras in the coming years.

Why it makes sense for St. Louis long-term:

Steele is not a free agent until 2028 giving the Cardinals a cost-controlled arm for years to come. Steele is who we hope Tink Hence can become, and a bird in the hand is better than a bird in the bush. Herrera and Graceffo is not a crazy premium to pay along with the potential of Hence to get what we know Steele is.

What doesn't make sense for them long-term is giving the Cubs assets, but hey, if someone else is going to do it, does it really matter all that much? I'm sure the Cubs would prefer to squeeze St. Louis for more value though, or just deal Steele elsewhere.

Why it makes sense for St. Louis in the short-term:

The last one on this list is a twist on a popular fan idea that has floated around recently. Bobby Miller has struggled mightily this year, leaving some Cardinals fans to point to a Walker-Miller swap making sense for both sides. Personally, a Nolan Gorman version of this swap makes even more sense for both sides.

Let me reiterate one more time that I still have a lot of faith in Walker. I just do. This guy is so talented, and he's still just 22 years old. And why are we forgetting that he was a productive big leaguer last season, especially after his brief Triple-A stint where he came back up hitting 20% above league average the final four months of the season? Walker is the kind of talent I would much rather go down sinking with, rather than "sell low" on.

I do think the Miller idea is interesting though, but with the Dodgers in win-now mode, Gorman could slot in at either of their two weakest positions offensively right now - second base and third base - and provide Los Angeles with a third power-hitting left-handed bat for their lineup behind Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman.

What the Cardinals would be doing here with Miller is banking on the idea that he can figure things out and get back on track to being a true front-line starter. If Miller was performing like we expected him to this year, Gorman would be nowhere near enough value to get a deal done. This deal would only work if Los Angeles is willing to sell a bit low on Miller while banking on the upside of Gorman as well.

In 22 starts for the Dodgers last year, Miller posted a 3.76 ERA while accumulating 2.8 fWAR in the process. He was among the best in baseball when it came to inducing groundballs, not giving up good contact, and of course, fastball velocity. Miller's five-pitch mix was led by a deadly fastball/sinker combination that his change-up and curveball played well off of.

This year, Miller has posted an 8.07 ERA in his seven big league starts, and it is truly dumbfounding how badly things have gone for him. Miller's slider has really let him down this year, and he will either need to find a way to turn that pitch around or ditch it altogether in order to get back to his prior success.

This deal doesn't give the Cardinals much in the short-term, but the potential long-term gain is why they do this deal.

Why it makes sense for St. Louis long-term:

Sonny Gray has been a great addition to the top of the Cardinals' rotation, but he's not getting any younger, and while St. Louis does have exciting arms on the way, we all know how those arms could easily flame out (just look at the Cardinals' top-end pitching prospects in the mid-2010s). Adding Miller to their stable of future arms like Hence, Mathews, and Hjerpe would go a long way toward improving the future outlook of this staff.

As we've seen around the game this year, you can never have enough pitching. Honestly, it even feels like the teams that are the most loaded with pitching talent tend to be the teams that need more arms by the deadline. Injuries are just inevitable with pitching in today's game, so having a bunch of "dudes" rather than placing all of your eggs in one basket is wise.

Losing Gorman wouldn't be easy, but it's not hard for me to wrap my head around how they can replace him internally or go after a veteran bat this offseason. But getting a talent like Miller is something I just don't see many ways for them to actually pull that off, so this is worth considering.