5 ways the Yoshinobu Yamamoto deal affects the St. Louis Cardinals

Yoshinobu Yamamoto agreed to terms with the Los Angeles Dodgers on December 21. The deal, the largest ever for a pitcher, locks him up for the next 12 years and will pay out $325MM. Yamamoto also comes with a hefty signing bonus of $51MM, which brings the total value of the deal to roughly $375MM. Yamamoto will be paid roughly $27MM annually, although the Dodgers front-loaded the contract by including a large $50MM signing bonus. Between the signing bonus, the posting fee, and Yamamoto's salary, the Dodgers will shell out roughly $125MM alone in 2024 to secure his services.

Fans everywhere are, to put it diplomatically, peeved. Many have declared that the Dodgers have ruined baseball. The Dodgers have certainly put together a talented roster. They will win a lot of games in 2024. There's probably no scenario in which they miss the postseason. They're prohibitive favorites to win the NL pennant and the World Series title. Does that mean they'll actually bring home the hardware? I'll still take the field, because this is baseball, and baseball is weird. That's why they play the games, right?

But, this deal, and the Dodgers' off-season as a whole, is unprecedented. It's awe-inspiring. It's gargantuan. It's truly incredible. It also stinks for a lot of other teams. The Yamamoto signing doesn't just affect Los Angeles. Sure, they're better. But this deal also affects the pitching market. In this article, I'll also argue that it will affect the way other organizations structure their own rosters.

Of course, this is a Cardinals outlet and I'm a Cardinals fan. I'm going to be describing how this deal affects the Cardinals. However, it's clear that the implications of Yamamoto's deal will be felt league-wide. With that disclaimer out of the way, let's dive into what Yamamoto's contract means for the St. Louis Cardinals by examining five key takeaways.

2) Yoshinubo Yamamoto just changed the complexion of the free-agent starter market.

Yamamoto got far more money than anyone anticipated. The total investment, as previously stated, is nearly $400MM. That's crazy for any pitcher! It's something most teams couldn't match. But, it's also probably more than most teams would have considered "fair market value." Yamamoto received more money than previously expected.

It also changes the way the rest of the market works. There are still several frontline starters out there. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain unsigned. It may have taken some finagling, but prior to the finalization of Yamamoto's contract, the Cardinals may have been able to afford one of these pitchers. At this point, they're probably no longer involved in the free-agent starter market.

That's because teams that truly missed on Yamamoto will need to pivot. They may be pressured to make a big move after whiffing. The Mets or Yankees could give Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell a deal in excess of $200MM. There's very little chance the Cardinals become players in that market. They just can't match those kinds of deals, especially for players who are aging. I'm somewhat relieved, as those deals would carry significant risk. Yamamoto is 25. Both Montgomery and Snell are now on the wrong side of 30, and both have significant questions surrounding their viability as aces.

It also must be stated that Yamamoto's deal doesn't just affect Montgomery and Snell. The effects of his historic signing will be felt all down the market. Every starter can now expect at least a slight increase in value. Pitching, which is always expensive, is even more expensive in the wake of such a contract. With the Cardinals now likely eliminated from the free-agent starter market, let's just be glad they got aggressive in November.

3) Yamamoto also changed the state of the trade market.

The trade market, the place the Cardinals were likely to go in the first place, is also different than it was just a few days ago. Since the Dodgers nabbed Glasnow, no major dominoes have fallen. Cease, the presumed best option available, remains in Chicago. However, with Yamamoto gone, there are simply fewer options available.

Moreover, the effects his deal had on the free agent market won't just be felt by the Cardinals. They will also affect a number of other mid-market teams. These teams, after being priced out of the free agent market, will likely turn their attention to the trade market. In a recent report, Ken Rosenthal noted that the Reds and Orioles remain linked to Cease. When someone finally does land Cease, the rest of the teams who miss will inevitably pivot, raising the cost of another piece. It's truly a seller's market this off-season. Some reports have suggested that Cease may now cost three or four top-end prospects. In Cardinals' terms, that could mean Masyn Winn, Tekoah Roby, and Brendan Donovan. That kind of deal will cause Cardinals fans and officials alike to pause.

It's going to be difficult to land a starter. What's even scarier to consider? The Dodgers may not be done! They've been linked to Cease since acquiring Yamamoto. They may also be interested in some low-profile targets. If their monstrous off-season has taught us anything, it's that we should never count them out. The Dodgers are an all-powerful, ravenous, machine right now. If they seriously pursue any target this off-season, they will land it. Now, that doesn't just mean Cease. The Dodgers are rumored to be involved in the infield and outfield markets, as they look to further bolster their super squad.

4) Yamamoto's deal changed the way many teams, including the St. Louis Cardinals, will view the postseason.

This is partially about Yamamoto's deal. But his contract was just the icing on the cake. They've now added Ohtani, Glasnow, and Yamamoto. They're probably not done. They've made themselves distant favorites. The Cardinals can't compete with the Dodgers or Braves over the course of a 162-game season. That's ok, because they don't have to. There's very little they could do short-term to build a team capable of nabbing a bye in the crowded National League pennant chase. No player available can bridge the gap between them and the "top-tier teams." If they're going to win 100 games, it'll take long-term development.

Thus, the Cardinals remain firmly in the bucket of "get in and get lucky." All they're trying to do is make the playoffs. That's probably going to frustrate a lot of fans. Will it give the Cardinals the best chance to win a World Series? Of course not! They won't be favored against the vaunted Braves or Dodgers. And to make matters worse, they'll have to fight through an additional round which, as we saw in 2021, can yield disastrous results.

But, if they can't get a bye, they're going to play the "get in and get lucky" game. Teams go on runs in the postseason, and often it makes no sense. The 2023 Diamondbacks did it. The 2019 Nationals did it. The 2021 Braves did it. Sometimes these teams win, and sometimes they don't. The Cardinals' two championship squads in 2006 and 2011 went on legendary runs. What's more, their best teams this century, 2004, 2005, and 2013, came up short. The postseason is, whether we want to acknowledge it or not, very random. The sample size is very small. Weird stuff happens. With the Dodgers and Braves surging ahead of the league, a lot of teams will likely adopt this stance.

5) Yamamoto's deal cements the Dodgers' dominance in the Japanese market.

The Shohei Ohtani contract was more influential, but the Yamamoto deal matters too. The Dodgers just acquired two of the greatest Japanese players of all time, and they handed out those deals within a few weeks of one another. Ohtani's tenure with the Angels demonstrated the hold his team can have over the Japanese fanbase. Japan will watch the Dodgers. Their young players will grow up watching the Dodgers.

The Dodgers' outsized influence in Japan will help them acquire the premium talent coming out of the region as well. Roki Sasaki, a flamethrowing 22-year-old righty, is likely to be posted within the next few years. His age will restrict his earnings, and the Dodgers will be in the perfect position to capitalize. Why wouldn't Sasaki want to join a team that boasts Ohtani and Yamamoto, among a host of other stars? It's certainly going to be difficult to bring him to St. Louis. But, if anyone's up to the task, it's Lars Nootbaar.

The Cardinals have traditionally done well in the Japanese and Korean markets. Seung Hwan Oh, Kwang Hyun Kim, and Miles Mikolas represent some of the successful deals they've inked with Asian players. Now, however, it could be more difficult than ever to acquire talent from the NPB or KBO.

Additionally, Yamamoto's deal could bring even more attention to the NPB. It will be very difficult to acquire premium talent on sneaky deals, the way the Cardinals did with Mikolas, Oh, and Kim. Where these markets previously offered interested teams a competitive advantage, they're now being thrust firmly into the spotlight. Jung Hoo Lee's $113MM contract with the Giants is a great example of this. These mega deals will forever change the way free agents from the KBO and NPB are pursued. I want to add that that's a good thing. These players should get fair market value. But, it will make it more difficult for the Cardinals to participate in this market.