5 ways the St. Louis Cardinals should construct their lineup in 2023

The Cardinals can construct their lineup a number of ways in 2023

There are a variety of storylines facing the St. Louis Cardinals as they approach Spring Training in under a month. While there is some reason to be frustrated at their current pitching situation, there should be a lot of excitement surrounding the starting lineup.

Over the last few weeks, the Cardinals have been ranked a top 5 lineup in all of baseball, and the 2023 ZiPS projections are expecting big things from St. Louis this coming season. While some have focused their energy on why the Cardinals would hold onto so many options when they have needs on the pitching side of things, I argued that their hesitancy to move any of this depth at the moment was wise for ensuring the lineup is successful this year.

One of the things that have frustrated Cardinals' fans for years is the lack of options the organization has for the lineup. In recent seasons, especially before the addition of Nolan Arenado, it felt like the club was scratching and clawing just to have 3-4 reliable hitters in their lineup, and often had to field and order full of underperforming bats or streaky hitters, as that was all they had. The best teams have the ability to field a lineup that can do damage on a daily basis, and the elite lineups have the depth to rotate players, whether it is in a platoon or for rest, and still put up runs every day.

For the first time in recent memory, the Cardinals can confidently say they are one of those teams.

In those ZiPS projections, ten different Cardinals have 80th percentile projections to be at least 15% above league average, and that does not even include Jordan Walker or Tommy Edman, who will both factor into the lineup next year and should also join that conversation at the very least. In fact, nine of those ten players, according to those projections, have the ability to be at least 27% above league average, making this lineup extremely dangerous on a daily basis.

With all that being said, there are multiple ways the Cardinals can construct their lineup next season based on matchups, who is hot at the moment, and when they need to rest some of their stars. Here are five different ways the Cardinals can construct their lineup in 2023.

#2 - Opening Day lineup vs. left-handed pitching

Year one of manager Oli Marmol showed he's all for playing the splits, which I think will make the lineup versus left-handed pitching look fairly different than right-handed.

1. SS Tommy Edman 2. CF Dylan Carlson 3. 1B Paul Goldschmidt 4. 3B Nolan Arenado 5. LF Tyler O'Neill 6. C Willson Contreras 7. DH Juan Yepez 8. RF Lars Nootbaar 9. 2B Brendan Donovan

Again, there are a lot of variations Marmol could go with here, but I think this lineup seems pretty likely for the beginning of the season. While both Edman and Carlson have struggled to varying degrees against right-handers, they both mash left-handed pitching, with .829 and .869 OPS, respectively. If they are going to continue that trend in 2023, there is no reason not to maximize the number of at-bats they receive against the starter. If their opponent goes to their bullpen for a righty, the club could pinch-hit Carlson with Walker, or if he is starting that day, one of O'Neill or Nootbaar.

I swapped O'Neill and Contreras in this lineup due to the style of hitters they are against left-handers. Even in a down 2022 season, O'Neill managed a .788 OPS against left-handed pitching, and during his 2021 campaign, was at a 1.026 OPS. Although Contreras had a .859 OPS against lefties last year, his average was .219 and his OBP was .325. He does a lot of damage against lefties but does not get on base quite as much. Just my personal preference, and I think it allows O'Neill to see better pitches hitting between Arenado and Contreras.

I gotta be honest, a 7-8-9 of Yepez, Nootbaar, and Donovan has got to be one of the best bottom-of-the-lineup trios in the game. That's just how good the Cardinals are against left-handed pitching.

#3 - Sandwich the hot-hitter

Something that the Cardinals did in 2021 that unlocked another gear in their lineup that did not work as well in 2022 was sandwiching one of their hitters between Goldschmidt and Arenado, a tactic that could be successful once again in 2023.

1. CF Lars Nootbaar 2. 1B Paul Goldschmidt 3. LF Tyler O'Neill 4. 3B Nolan Arenado 5. C Willson Contreras 6. DH Juan Yepez 7. RF Jordan Walker 8. 2B Brendan Donovan 9. SS Tommy Edman

I used the example of O'Neill as the 3-hole hitter as there is precedent for that trio working in the past, but I could really see any one of Nootbaar, Walker, Yepez, or even Gorman slotting in there if their bat heats up during the season.

Why slot someone in-between one of the best duos in today's game? If their bat is playing well enough to make them worthy of hitting in the middle of the order, it gives St. Louis the ability to get a guy like O'Neill or anyone else even better pitches to see on a more regular basis. With how much Goldy can get on base, and on-base guys like Nootbaar, Donovan, and Edman in front of him, opposing teams will have to go right after hitters in that three spot, not being able to afford to put them on base with Arenado and Contreras following after.

With the length this Cardinals order now has, hitting Goldschmidt second does not "penalize him" with fewer guys on base than normal. The 8-9 hole hitters, depending on the day, would likely be guys like Edman, Donovan, Nootbaar, or Walker, who will provide Goldschmidt opportunities to do damage consistently as well.

Now, this scenario really only works well if the 3-hole hitter is actually hitting - otherwise, you are breaking up a strong duo and giving opposing pitching staffs a "breather" in between them. But if O'Neill returns to form or one of those other guys becomes a great third or fourth bat, it makes a ton of sense to set them up for even more success while maintaining protection for Goldschmidt and Arenado.

The other way this option could work even better than it did in 2021 is if that 5-hole hitter is hitting in a way that teams cannot just give Arenado a free pass. If one of O'Neill, Contreas, Yepez, Nootbaar, or Walker is performing in the 3rd spot in the lineup and one of the others is in the 5th spot, teams will be forced to pick their poison each time through the order. Then the club has scrappy on-base guys at the bottom of the lineup to help set up that dangerous gauntlet once again.

#4 - When Willson Contreras is not catching

On days when Contreras is not behind the plate for St. Louis, there'll likely be some interesting shakeups to the lineup. I'll show a scenario where Contreras is DHing and when he is sitting, both against right-handed pitching, and then give my opinion on how St. Louis should handle his rest days.

Conteras as the DH - 1. CF Lars Nootbaar 2. 2B Brendan Donovan 3. 1B Paul Goldschmidt 4. 3B Nolan Arenado 5. DH Willson Contreras 6. LF Tyler O'Neill 7. RF Jordan Walker 8. SS Tommy Edman 9. C Andrew Knizner

Contreras resting - 1. CF Lars Nootbaar 2. 2B Brendan Donovan 3. 1B Paul Goldschmidt 4. 3B Nolan Arenado 5. LF Tyler O'Neill 6. DH Juan Yepez 7. RF Jordan Walker 8. SS Tommy Edman 9. C Andrew Knizner

When you look at both of these lineups, they are pretty strong when you consider that the 1-8 spots remain at minimum above league average hitters throughout. If I am being honest though, I would rather the Cardinals not DH Contreras and just let him rest fully when he's not catching, especially if they actually want him to catch close to 120-130 games next season.

My reasoning for this is one, Knizner (or Herrera) will have to play anyways, so you're not negating that by leaving Contreras in the lineup. One of the major reasons why Contreras will be such an impactful addition is that when he catches, this spot in the lineup may be one of the biggest upgrades in all of baseball from what the club's production at catcher was in 2022. The Cardinals should have plenty of DH options this year that need playing time between Gorman, Yepez, Walker, Burleson, and other starters like Goldschmidt and Arenado, so I'd rather just let them have those at-bats.

Second, I know being the DH is not super taxing, but handing out a five-year deal to a catcher is a big commitment. The Cardinals are paying him so that he can be their primary catcher for the duration of the deal, not turn into a mostly DH player by the end of that. Anything they can do right now to save his legs will be greatly appreciated in future seasons.

So, if I were Oli Marmol, I'll let Contreras DH when he's hot at the plate, and taking his bat out of the lineup is a bad idea, but for the most part, I am letting him have the day off whenever he is not behind the plate.

This last lineup I will look at really showcases the depth St. Louis had right now and how that can be a major strength this season.

#5 - Lineup when keys starters have the day off

When it boils down to it, outside of Contreras, there are three guys in the everyday lineup whose absence will shake up the lineup in a major way - Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Tommy Edman. The former two are MVP-caliber players who can carry the lineup and will be missed when they are not playing, and the latter is the club's primary shortstop and where their backup options are the thinnest.

I'll show two lineup constructions once again - both with Edman having the day off. One of the lineups will see Goldschmidt have a rest day, and the other will show what should happen when Arenado is off, both again against right-handed pitching.

When Goldschmidt/Edman rest - 1. RF Lars Nootbaar 2. SS Brendan Donovan 3. 3B Nolan Arenado 4. C Willson Contreras 5. LF Tyler O'Neill 6. 1B Juan Yepez 7. DH Jordan Walker 8. 2B Nolan Gorman 9. CF Dylan Carlson

When Arenado/Edman rest - 1. CF Lars Nootbaar 2. 3B Brendan Donovan 3. 1B Paul Goldschmidt 4. C Willson Contreras 5. LF Tyler O'Neill 6. DH Juan Yepez 7. RF Jordan Walker 8. 2B Nolan Gorman 9. SS Paul DeJong

Let me go a bit into my reasoning before you make too many judgements on these constructions. First, there will be days when Goldschmidt and Arenado need full-off days, but they will definitely see a lot of time at DH this season as well. I do think with the amount of DH options the Cardinals have, if a good chunk of them are hitting, it will incentivise them to let the MVP duo have more full rest days than they did last season.

When Arenado is out of the lineup, it is hard to imagine the Cardinals putting anyone else at third base than Donovan, especially if Edman is sitting as well. Edman appeared to slow down in the second half last year due to the grind of playing shortstop every day with few off days, so it is likely the club will want to protect him more if they can. If both Arenado and Edman are out, the Cardinals will need more defense on the left side of the infield, earning Paul DeJong some playing time. I guess Yepez could play third base, but an infield that features Yepez, Donovan, and Gorman without the shift is asking for trouble.

When Goldschmidt and Edman sit though, the presence of Arenado at third base should allow Donovan to slide in at shortstop and Gorman to fill in at second base that day. It is pretty incredible to see the strength of the lineup even when the Cardinals are sitting an MVP-caliber hitter. Just to flex a little more, look at their lineup on a day when BOTH guys are out of the lineup, which should rarely happen, barring injury, but is a possibility.

1. RF Lars Nootbaar 2. 3B Brendan Donovan 3. C Willson Contreras 4. LF Tyler O'Neill 5. 1B Juan Yepez 6. DH Jordan Walker 7. 2B Nolan Gorman 8. CF Dylan Carlson 9. SS Tommy Edman

Again, is this lineup ideal? No. But on a getaway day against the Colorado Rockies, Washington Nationals, or Oakland Athletics, this lineup is more than capable of winning. Honestly, it can compete with most lineups in today's game. Would that lineup be favored against the best teams? Again, no, but it shows just how deep this team is when rest is needed or injuries happen. It was not all that long ago that the Cardinals' crop of position players was so thin that even the thought of benching one of their regulars was brutal.

Honestly, I could have come up with so many more lineup combinations. What if certain players perform highly this year? What if others struggle? What will St. Louis do when those injuries do happen? I hope what this story showed is St. Louis has a ton of options going into 2023, and while other teams' lineups may become very thin after a few injuries or underperforming talents, the Cardinals should not be in that boat this year.