5 truths about the St. Louis Cardinals that fans do not want to hear

1. Oli Marmol does not deserve to be fired

I'm not going to try and argue that Oli Marmol is one of the best managers in baseball or something like that. But I also think it's equally silly to act like he is one of the worst in baseball either.

In 2022, Marmol was promoted to the club's manager after the surprise dismissal of Mike Shildt. In his first year as manager, Marmol guided the Cardinals to a 93-win season and the NL Central Division title before being bounced by the Philadelphia Phillies in the Wild Card Series. While the playoff exit was frustrating, Marmol had a good first year at the helm for St. Louis.

Some will blame Marmol for his bullpen usage in Game 1 of the series for the Cardinals' downfall, but let's be honest, the offense just did not show up in that series. The Cardinals scored just 3 runs in those two games, and their stars, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado combined to go 1-15 with 1 run scored and 0 RBI in the series.

Coming into 2023, expectations remained high for this Cardinals club, but the concerns that many had about the pitching staff became even worse than anyone could have expected. The Cardinals' defense also regressed in a major way, but a lot of that has to do with losing guys like Harrison Bader and Yadier Molina, prolonged injuries for Tyler O'Neill and Lars Nootbaar, a weirdly bad defensive first half from Nolan Arenado, and one of the league's worst defenders for much of the season in Jordan Walker. Sure, coaching could maybe help the pitching staff and defense be better, but the regression has far more to do with personnel than it does the coaching.

I've seen many just point to the Cardinals record as proof that Marmol is a terrible manager. Is Terry Francona now a bad manager for having his Guardians team under .500 this year? Is Bob Melvin, who was regarded as one of the best managers in baseball going into the year, seen as an awful manager after how bad the Padres' season has gone? Early in his career, Tony La Russa had multiple terrible seasons with the White Sox before being fired. I'm not saying Marmol is one of the best managers in baseball, but managers often get too much credit for team success and too much blame for team failure.

With how bad this season has gone, it would be really easy for a number of players in the Cardinals' dugout to throw Marmol under the bus, but they continue to come to the defense of their manager time and time again. Marmol hasn't been impressive this year, but his success in 2022 earns him another chance in 2024 in my book. I doubt the Cardinals consider moving on from him, but if they do, I understand why, because perhaps a change in leadership just has to happen for the sake of some change. But I don't think it would be a reflection on who Marmol is as a manager and more about the mess the club has found itself in.

2. You can't put together packages of your least favorite players to acquire elite talent

I joke about it a lot, but it still amazes me how many people think you can just put together a package of all the Cardinals that you don't want and somehow a team like the Mariners or Marlins is going to just hand the Cardinals great pitching in return.

Someone like Logan Gilbert is one of the most valuable trade chips in all of baseball, and yet I see trade proposals thrown out all the time like Moises Gomez, Luken Baker, and Tyler O'Neill for Gilbert. Even suggesting someone like Tommy Edman can be the centerpiece in a deal for someone that talented is just not realistic.

You have to give up talent to get talent. If the Cardinals want to go after a top-end player in the trade market this year, or a good young player with a lot of team control, it's going to cost some of their best assets. No, not Baker, Gomez, or whoever else in that tier of player, but guys like Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Maysn Winn, or Nolan Gorman. I'm not saying the Cardinals should do that, but getting mad that they haven't turned their organizational depth into elite talent is just not how baseball works.

3. There is extreme risk in going after top-end free agents

One complaint I hear all the time about the Cardinals is that they do not go after top-end free agents. It's been 8 years since they offered $200 million to Jason Heyward and $180 million to David Price, and almost 15 years since they signed Matt Holliday to the biggest free agent contract of his offseason. They've shown a willingness to make a big signing in the past, but it has not happened in recent years.

I expect the Cardinals to get involved in the top-end of the pitching market this offseason, and I believe most fans are clamoring for that, but everyone needs to remember the risk that the Cardinals will be taking on here.

Think about all of the failed contracts to starting pitchers that have been handed out in recent memory. Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Robbie Ray, Madison Bumgarner, and perhaps guys like Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon will be in this category soon as well. Injuries, regression in performance, and so many other things can sink the value of a contract for a starting pitcher, and the Cardinals could fall victim to that as well.

They've backed themselves into a corner this offseason and have to take on that risk, but fans need to remember that before clamoring for Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Julio Urias, or whoever your favorite target is. If they struggle with injuries or start regressing, don't get mad that the Cardinals were aggressive in signing them like you asked them to.

4. If you want to place all of the blame for front office mistakes on John Mozeliak, then he also deserves credit for the great moves as well

Yes, the Marcell Ozuna trade was a huge mistake. So were the Randy Arozarena and Adolis Garcia trades. Dexter Fowler, Brett Cecil, Greg Holland, Mike Leake, and other signings can fall into these categories as well. Their trust in their internal pitching options turned out to be a massive failure. John Mozeliak has made his fair share of mistakes in recent years.

If you're going to hold each of these deals over Mozeliak's head, then you also need to give him major credit for the good moves he has made as well. Trading for Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt while giving up next to nothing in value long-term is absolutely incredible. I hate when people say "Well those don't count, anyone would have made those deals." Well, okay then, why didn't every other team in baseball outbid the Cardinals in those deals? John Mozeliak pulled it off. Would you rather have had him give up top prospects who went on to do great things so the deal was "harder" to make?

The Harrison Bader-Jordan Montgomery trade was a huge win for the Cardinals at the time and continues to reap rewards with the additions of Thomas Saggase and Tekoah Roby. Jose Quintana was a huge get for St. Louis down the stretch last year. They got a stud reliever in JoJo Romero for Edmundo Sosa. The Luke Voit for Giovanny Gallegos deal has been a big win. There's a lot more we could look at as well.

Randy Flores may be in charge of the Cardinals scouting department, but Mozeliak still deserves credit for helping build this farm system in recent years with the likes of Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Tommy Edman, Ivan Herrera, Andrew Knizner, Dylan Carlson, Tink Hence, and more on that end as well.

Mozeliak needs to hit a home run this offseason and fix the issues they've created for this club in order for them to compete in 2024. If they cannot do so, then real questions about the future of Mozeliak and the front office will have to be addressed. But one terrible season is not going to do that for me. This season has revealed some glaring weaknesses of the front office, but I do not believe it's fair to focus solely on the bad with this leadership group.

5. Fans often times expect too much, too early from young talent, and then give up on them too quickly as well.

Similar to how you cannot just put together a trade package of whoever you want to get a deal done in this league, I think Cardinals fans can expect way too much from their young talent early on, and then end up giving up on them quickly as well.

Remember this past offseason when everyone wanted Nolan Gorman traded after those same people begged for Gorman to make his debut and he had a solid rookie campaign? Remember earlier this year when people were mad that Matthew Liberatore wasn't in the Cardinals rotation? Remember when people couldn't understand how Luken Baker wasn't on the MLB roster?

Heck, even Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn have seen some of this. People have already clamored for Walker to be moved to first base, even as he's continuing to learn how to play the outfield and has shown the tools to be good out there. People were clamoring for Winn to make his debut and now are disappointed by his bat.

Expectation need to be lowered a bit for rookies at times, and fans especially need to grow in their patience with young players. Very few can just burst onto the MLB scene as very productive players and remain consistent while doing so. But it feels like if a rookie does not do that, fans begin to go ahead and turn their attention to someone new.