5 trade packages the Cardinals could offer the Rays for Tyler Glasnow

One of my first stories over at Redbird Rants in December 2021 centered around the idea of the Cardinals trading for an ace-caliber starter who was, at that moment, rehabbing from a major injury, but the thought process was that Rays' Tyler Glasnow could potentially help the club at the end of the 2022 season and be a big part of their 2023 rotation.

Apparently, people didn't like the idea of trading then-prospect Juan Yepez for Glasnow, although I would bet many have changed their opinion on that since then. Regardless, the Cardinals, to my knowledge, never expressed interest in Glasnow back then, but new reports indicate that has changed.

Derrick Goold has already reported interest from the Cardinals in Glasnow, saying, "..if the Rays entertain discussions, the Cardinals will call. Or email. Or text. Or all three." To Goold's point, the Rays have not yet said they would be shopping Glasnow, but there are a lot of signs that point in that direction.

Glasnow is set to make $25 million in 2024, making him by far their highest-paid player. With the injury history he has had, being a year away from free agency, and their need to shake up the roster, it would make sense to shop Glasnow, bring in some value, and use that salary elsewhere.

When asked in a recent chat what Glasnow's price would be on the trade market, Goold had some interesting thoughts in his weekly chat to add to the conversation.

"....if Tampa Bay entertains offers the Cardinals are going to be one of the teams that calls...But they know the price. The idea is that the salary shapes what it takes to get him in return. Now there will be other bidders, that drives the price, but the uncertainty and the cost should also make it quite clear what Rays will want in return. MLB help. Maybe a bit of an upside risk, too. Lower cost."

Let's take a look at five potential trade packages for Glasnow for the St. Louis Cardinals

Trade #1

Cardinals receive: RHP Tyler Glasnow

Rays receive: UTL Tommy Edman and 1B/OF Juan Yepez

If you were to ask me personally what the most likely centerpiece to a Tyler Glasnow trade would be, I'd easily say Tommy Edman.

With Glasnow's injury history, salary, and lack of control, there is no way the Cardinals are trading Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, or Nolan Gorman to get a deal done. Still, the Rays will want an impact player for their MLB roster, and Edman sure fits that bill.

Edman feels like a Tampa Bay Ray to me. He's versatile, has clear strengths (speed, defense, and his bat vs. left-handed pitching), and has two years of control remaining. He isn't as cheap as he used to be though. MLB Trade Rumors is projecting his arbitration number to be $6.5 million this year, and there's a good chance that number gets close to $10 million next season before hitting free agency in 2026. Edman's value is probably as high as it will ever be this offseason, and the Cardinals have internal options to replace him.

No, they don't have one guy who can be an above-average or plus defender at shortstop, second base, and center field, but they do have options for all three of those spots. Masyn Winn should be the starting shortstop this year, with Brendan Donovan and Thomas Saggese being guys who can provide depth there. At second base, Donovan, Saggese, and Nolan Gorman form a really strong unit there. In center field, the Cardinals have Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson, and potentially even prospect Victor Scott II in the very near future.

Edman still provides a ton of value though, so the Cardinals aren't going to give him away for nothing. But the idea of adding an arm like Glasnow may be too tempting for them to pass on.

With the Wander Franco situation still looming over the Rays, Edman gives them an immediate solution at shortstop and someone who can bounce around for them through the 2025 season. Juan Yepez gets a change of scenery here as well, and I'm sure the Rays could find a role for him to help unlock his bat at the Major League level.

I'll make a note of this for each trade - but with the offsetting of Edman and Herrea's salaries, the Cardinals would only at a net payroll of about $17.8 million in this deal. If the DeWitts are telling the truth in their intention to jump up the payroll rankings this year, then that still leaves them with room to add two more top-end arms in free agency as well.

Trade #2

Cardinals receive: RHP Tyler Glasnow

Rays receive: OF Tyler O'Neill and C Ivan Herrera

Back to Goold's thoughts on the return. MLB ready, upside risk, and at a much lower cost than Glasnow. Can I introduce you the the man, the myth, and the legend - Tyler O'Neill?

Actually, the most valuable player in this deal would likely be Ivan Herrera. With six years of club control and huge steps forward in his development this year, the Cardinals are sitting on a very valuable piece, whether that is for the future of their club or as a trade asset. With legitimate questions about how much Willson Contreras will be catching in the future, the Cardinals will not be quick to trade Herrera.

But again, if trading him helps them net a starter as talented as Glasnow, that is hard to pass up on.

Glasnow made 21 starts in 2023 and posted a 3.53 ERA in 120 innings with 162 SO. Talk about a starter with strikeout stuff. For as often as he has been injured, he's actually logged 45.2 innings in the postseason already as well, although he's had mixed results in October. Of course, the concern with Glasnow is whether or not he can be healthy for a full season.

For the Cardinals, the upside that Glasnow offers is the exact kind of pitcher they need to be willing to take a risk on. He has some of the best strikeout stuff in baseball, and when he's healthy, he is among the best in the game. Even if he only gives them 20-25 starts next year, would you rather have that and 8-12 starts of Zack Thompson when he's out? Or a lesser pitcher who gives you more innings? Give me Glasnow all day. Sure, you need other arms you can depend on innings from, but one guy like Glasnow in your rotation is worth the risk.

Back to Tyler O'Neill. He really does fit the bill of a high-upside play for the Rays - and not just because of the kind of bat he has when he is right. His value defensively alone can make him a valuable player for the Rays if he's on the field, and if his bat comes alive, he truly could have a resurgent season. At just $5.5 million next year and also acquiring six years of control on a promising catcher, this could be worth the risk for the Rays.

There is the whole question about whether or not he'd be willing to play on turf though, as he sat out multiple games against the Rays in Tampa due to concerns with that. If that is a no-go for O'Neill, then I doubt the Rays will have any interest in trading for him.

If this kind of deal was pulled off though, O'Neill's projected $5.5 million salary in his last year of arbitration and Herrera's league-minimum deal would mean the Cardinals' are only acquiring just under $19 million in net salary for 2024, once again creating room for them to pursue multiple high-level arms in free agency.

Trade #4

Cardinals receive: RHP Tyler Glasnow

Rays receive: OF Dylan Carlson and RHP Gordon Graceffo

Dylan Carlson is such an interesting name to be when it comes to his future with the Cardinals, what his value is around the league, and especially what a team like Tampa Bay would think of him. He's a former top-15 prospect in all of baseball, is a very good defender at all three outfield spots, has mashed left-handed pitching in his career, and still has a lot of untapped potential. Would the Rays want to try and resurrect his career?

It's hard to know how much they have hampered his performance the last two years, but Carlson has been battling through some nagging injuries. He's entering his first year of arbitration this year, so he's still really cheap in terms of salary and will be under contract through the 2026 season. That should be pretty appealing for a number of clubs, and I'd imagine the Rays to be one of them.

There is a lot of risk in trading Carlson while his value is this low. Sure, this could just be who he is as a player, or he could really break out as a hitter soon, and that'll be another outfielder who the Cardinals let get away. Like the deals before though, getting a player like Glasnow makes those risks worth taking.

Gordon Graceffo is an arm that will be ready for big league innings next year, but where does he fall on the pecking order for St. Louis? My guess is at least behind Zack Thompson of their internal options, but possibly even guys like Matthew Liberatore and Dakota Hudson as well. Graceffo has the potential to be a really solid starter for years to come, but could they sacrifice him in order to upgrade their rotation significantly in the present? Having names like Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, Cooper Hjerpe, Adam Kloffenstein, Sem Roberrse, Max Rajcic, Ian Bedell, and Michael McGreevy helps ease the idea of losing Graceffo in such a deal.

There's a lot of risk baked into this trade for the Rays in terms of the return, but a lot of long-term upside as well here. Again, they also free up about $24 million in payroll, which helps them go after more immediate upgrades as well. I could see them viewing that freed-up salary as the "immediate help" they get in a Glasnow deal and desiring a return that is more future-oriented.

Those four deals, or even mixing or matching some of those names, seem the most realistic to me for different reasons, but there is one more trade, one that gets pretty wild, that I think could help both sides in unique ways.

Trade #5 - The "Let's Get Weird" trade

Cardinals receive: RHP Tyler Glasnow

Rays receive: UTL Tommy Edman, LHP Steven Matz, C Ivan Herrera, and OF Tyler O'Neill

This one is really odd and would require both the Cardinals and Rays to be creative here, but as I chewed on this, I think it could actually make a lot of sense.

Glasnow's $25 million would be going to St. Louis in this deal, while Tampa Bay would acquire Steven Matz at $12.5 million AAV, Tommy Edman ($6.5 million projection), Tyler O'Neill ($5.5 million projection), and C Ivan Herrea, who would make the league minimum. That equals out to just under $25 million coming back to the Rays.

As I've talked about already, if the Rays are going to part with Glasnow, part of the reason is going to be to spread that money out amongst other players and to capitalize on Glasnow's value before he is gone. The Rays would be acquiring a total of 11 years of service time for Glasnow's expiring deal.

I could see a lot of reasons that both teams would be disinterested in this deal, but I could also see how they talk themselves into it. For the Cardinals, they would be taking on Glasnow without adding more than $500,000 to their current payroll. It requires them to give up a lot of roster pieces, including two very valuable ones with control in Edman and Herrera, but doing this allows them to go out and spend on two more high-end arms as well, potentially turning their rotation into one of the best in baseball.

11 years of control is a lot for a guy in a contract year with health issues. If the deal was Edman and Herrera straight up for Glasnow, the Rays would be getting a ton of value in return. Throwing in the remainder of Matz's salary throws a wrench into this deal, but I actually think it's one that the Rays would have interest in, especially if it means they get two pieces like Edman and Herrera and get to take a flyer on O'Neill.

Matz has two years, $25 million remaining on his contract at this point. He's battled injuries during his Cardinals tenure, and although he struggled at the beginning of 2023., he came into his own as a pitcher down the stretch for St. Louis before his season-ending injury. The Rays are masters at taking veteran starters and unlocking the best version of themselves, and I could see them doing that here with Matz. While many have deemed Matz's contract as a failure so far, if he even just continued the form that he found late in the season with St. Louis, that contract would be a bargain for Tampa Bay.

For taking on the risk that is associated with Matz, the Rays would get Edman, O'Neill, and Herrera, who are all three guys that could plug into their starting lineup in 2024. Seems like a really nice trade-off for the Rays. This is risky for St. Louis though, as they lose three position players who could contribute in 2024 and a rotatoin piece to an already razor thin rotation.

If the Cardinals really wanted to swing big on their rotation, and if the Rays really liked these pieces from St. Louis, I could see a deal like this getting done. Odds are though, one or both of the sides would have too many question markets with this, leading to a less complicated package if a deal did get done.