5 things that would need to happen for the Cardinals to compete for the World Series

The St. Louis Cardinals turned over 45% of their 40-man roster at the trade deadline and in the offseason in order to turn this club around in 2024. While there are good reasons to believe the club will be competitive and playoff-bound this season, their play on the field will ultimately determine that.

What the Cardinals have not done this offseason is give anyone confidence that they can be a World Series contender this coming season. Yes, should be much more competitive, but it's quite the stretch to believe they can truly compete with the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League, even with the postseason consistently having sub-90 win teams upset the regular season juggernauts.

That doesn't mean the Cardinals can't get themselves into the conversation, but it would require some major "what ifs" to happen in order to pull it off. A strong mixture of internal improvement, offseason moves proving successful, and potentially more additions to the roster could make World Series contention more of a possibility. How likely is it that all of those things occur? Well, that remains to be seen.

If you've gotten this far and think this story is trying to convince you that the Cardinals are World Series contenders, that's not the point of this piece. The goal of this breakdown is to identify all of the things that would need to happen in order for that to be a possibility. In all likelihood, the Cardinals' best possible season is a division title and a playoff series win, but asking for more than that right now is much more like a hope and dream than it is a logical argument.

Even so, let's try and imagine a world where the Cardinals can enter that conversation this season.

In no particular order, here are the five things that would need to happen in order for the Cardinals to join the group of World Series contenders in 2024.

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#1 - The offense needs to be truly elite

Starting off this list is the thing that is most likely to happen and is key for them to be a contender this year as well: the Cardinals offense must be among the best in baseball in 2024.

If you ask most Cardinals fans, they'll tell you the offense was mostly disappointing in 2024, and while the end-of-the-season numbers support that feeling, the Cardinals' offensive success before the trade deadline in 2023 has flown under the radar. Check out how the Cardinals ranked in major offensive categories before and after July 29th, the final game Brendan Donovan played in, and when they started trading off multiple pieces from the club.

The Cardinals ranked top-7 in some of the most important measures of offensive success in today's game before they sold at the deadline and many of their regular players began hitting the injured list again, so it's pretty easy to see how they are a top-7 unit once again without any improvements. But now consider their ceiling with some of those baked in...

Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, and Lars Nootbaar all showed the ability to be tremendous hitters during the season.

- Walker was a top-40 hitter in baseball after he was called back up from Memphis in June.
- Gorman was a top-20 hitter the entire season outside of his historically bad month of May.
- Nootbaar, when healthy was one of the better hitters in baseball.
- Donovan was one of the best 20 hitters in baseball after making a key adjustment to his approach for a 10-week stretch before his season-ending injury.

You can check my in-depth breakdowns of these numbers in my ranking of the 10 most valuable Cardinals' young position players.

Each of those guys showed success for sustained stretches during the 2023 season, but each of them missed significant chunks of the season for various reasons.

- Walker played in just 117 games due to his May demotion.
- Gorman battled back issues and didn't start against lefties to begin the year, playing in just 119 games
- Nootbaar hit the Injured List three times during the year, two of those times due to freak injuries, playing in just 117 games.
- Donovan missed almost the entire second half due to season-ending elbow surgery, playing in just 95 games.

Those four key bats, on average, missed 30% of the Cardinals' games in 2023. If the Cardinals are getting those four in their lineup on a close to everyday basis in 2024, expect a major step forward for the offense as a whole. Each of those guys is entering their second or third full big-league season, so natural progression can add to that improvement as well.

And let's not forget Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, both of whom had down years last year. Are either guaranteed to bounce back? Nope. But if either or both do, we saw what kind of impact they could have in 2022.

It's a rose-colored glasses take to believe everything will go right with the offense in 2024 but to be fair, it felt like everything that could have gone wrong in 2023 did for that group. The reason I have so much optimism for this group in 2024 is that there are so many different players who can propel the offense. They just need a few of those things to happen for the offense to be a top-5 unit in baseball.

#2 - Sonny Gray must pitch like a front-line starter and someone else must emerge as a middle-of-the-rotation arm

The biggest addition of the Cardinals offseason was starting pitcher Sonny Gray, who is now tasked with leading a rotation that was a disaster in 2023.

Fresh off finishing second in American League Cy Young award voting, Gray appears ready to step into this new challenge, and he has the stuff and the track record needed for the Cardinals to rely on him as one of their top starters. The problem I have with their rotation isn't that Sonny Gray is leading it, it's that they did not grab a second front-line starter to pair with him.

Gray must pitch like a front-line starter for the club to compete at a high level in 2024 because no one else on the roster has that kind of upside. After Gray, each of the Cardinals starters looks much more like number four or five starters, which doesn't exactly strike fear in the hearts of any opponents.

From that group of Steven Matz, Lance Lynn, Miles Mikolas, and Kyle Gibson, the Cardinals need one of them to emerge as a number three type starter, someone you could potentially throw in Game 3 of a playoff series and feel alright about your chances. Matz and Lynn in particular have qualities that could lead to them filling that void, but that all remains to be seen.

While the Cardinals plan on those five carrying them at least through the trade deadline, there's always the possibility that a young arm can emerge with a higher upside. Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore are both competing for a rotation spot during Spring Training and could emerge as better options. Gordon Graceffo and Tekoah Roby are two other guys that Mozeliak has mentioned as potential contributors this year, and maybe one of them will emerge as that guy.

We'll address the need for another front-line starter later, but they really do need the current rotation group to provide this year for them to succeed.

#3 - Defense and baserunning are tightened up

The Cardinals are typically known for their clean play. They pride themselves on being a club that makes the right play and is sound fundamentally, especially when it comes to defense and base running.

Well, 2023 was a step in the wrong direction for the club when it came to the fundamentals, and that's been a big topic of discussion for the club this offseason.

Jordan Walker and Willson Contreras were two major liabilities defensively last year that hurt the Cardinals in the field, and both have put in a ton of work this offseason to take steps forward defensively. Walker has been working with Jose Oquendo this offseason to improve as an outfielder, while Contreras appears to have made strides when it comes to pitch framing. Both of these things would be massive steps in the right direction for the Cardinals' defense.

There are some other things working in the Cardinals' favor that way as well. Tommy Edman is now in center field and should provide top-10 defense at that position, and the same can be said with Masyn Winn at shortstop. Nolan Arenado is looking to bounce back from a down year defensively. Lars Nootbaar will be in left field most days, helping to improve that defense as well.

When it comes to base running, Winn and Edman both have the ability to be difference-makers on the basepaths. Walker and Nootbaar are also guys who can provide more there than they did in 2023. But all eyes are on prospect Victor Scott II and what he'll provide upon his debut.

Not only can Scott help the Cardinals' defense, but he's also someone who'll immediately be among the best base stealers in baseball and could be the best shortly. He stole over 90 bases in the minors last year and is knocking on the door of St. Louis.

Improvement in both of these areas would go a long way for the club in 2024.

#4 - The Cardinals make a major addition to their rotation during the season

Let's say the Cardinals have a strong first half of the season and are buyers at the Trade Deadline. It's clear that the club will need to swing higher than they usually do by going out and acquiring another front-line starter.

It won't come cheap. The Cardinals just reaped the benefits of that when they traded Jordan Montgomery last deadline and acquired two top-100 prospects in return. They could just go out and sign Montgomery or Blake Snell now and not have to give up prospects at the deadline, but I think that's far less likely than a trade would be.

The White Sox will still be looking to move Dylan Cease at the deadline. Perhaps the Marlins will finally move Jesus Luzardo. Maybe the Twins fall out of contention and put Pablo Lopez on the block. Who would have thought this time last year that Montgomery, Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer would all be traded? By this time in July, there may be some surprise trade targets added to that mix.

The Cardinals have to be aggressive in trading for another top starter if they want to go deep in October. They'll have the pieces to pull it off. Thomas Saggese, Victor Scott II, Tekoah Roby, Tink Hence, and Gordon Graceffo are all valuable trade chips. On the MLB roster, guys like Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, and Alec Burleson carry a lot of value. If absolutely needed, they could even put someone like Nolan Gorman or Brendan Donovan on the table.

If the Cardinals add another front-line starter to pair with Sonny Gray, their top lineup, and improved bullpen, they start to have a better shot against the best teams in baseball.