5 starting pitchers the Cardinals should target in the 2024 MLB Draft

The MLB draft may be the most unpredictable amateur draft in all of professional sports. It's common to look at the top draft selections from past years and see guys who never made it to the big leagues, and in that same draft, have multiple guys drafted in the 4th round or later who become future All-Stars. It's part of the reason a team like the St. Louis Cardinals can be one of the most successful teams at drafting, even though they never get a top pick.

Until now.

We won't know exactly where the Cardinals are picking until after the draft lottery this offseason, but it's almost a guarantee that they'll be picking in the top 10 for the first time since 1998. While this season has been frustrating for a number of reasons, and the club needs to be focused on getting back into contention in 2024, next year's draft could help the Cardinals get back on track for years to come.

Players the Cardinals have drafted since 2015 have accumulated the second-most WAR amongst all teams in baseball, despite never drafting higher than 18th in any draft during that time. The Astros, the only team that has accumulated more, had two top-five picks in 2015 and drafted both Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker with those selections. Randy Flores and his excellent scouting team will now be in the position to draft the highest-regarded players in the 2024 draft, and if their track record tells us anything, they'll likely make a great pick there.

The Cardinals need pitching badly. They must add that this offseason through free agency and trades. The continued development of prospects like Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, Gordon Graceffo, and Cooper Hjerpe will help a ton as well. But we aren't talking enough about how the 2024 MLB Draft could shape their future rotation as well.

In recent drafts, more and more pitching prospects are getting to the Major Leagues and making an impact quickly. Look at some of the arms already in the Major Leagues that have been drafted in the first round lately.

2018 - Grayson Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert, Shane McClanahan
2019 - Nick Lodolo, Alek Manoah, Zack Thompson, George Kirby
2020 - Reid Detmers, Bobby Miller

If the Cardinals draft a pitcher in the first round in 2024, it's highly unlikely they will be a significant contributor in 2025, but they could be a major factor for St. Louis in 2026 or beyond. Ultimately, drafting the best player available will matter more than positional fit for the Cardinals, but there are some really intriguing arms in this draft that I could easily see them picking at this rate.

The 2024 MLB Draft is a long way away, and the scouting reports on all of these guys can change between now and then. But as things currently stand, I like what kinds of arms are at the top of the 2024 class for the Cardinals.

Here are five pitchers the Cardinals could target in the 2024 MLB Draft

RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest

After being selected by the Padres in the 20th round of the 2021 MLB Draft, Chase Burns decided to attend the University of Tennessee instead, and during his first two years of college, he has risen up draft boards and may be the top pitching prospect in the nation.

Burns is transferring to Wake Forest this year, but he flashed his upside as a future impact starter in his two years at Tennessee. In 35 games (22 starts), Burns had a 3.54 ERA with a 12.8 SO/9 as a freshman and sophomore for Tennessee. 2023 saw his ERA rise to 4.25 as he split time between the rotation and bullpen, but his strikeout stuff blossomed even more as he rose to a 14.3 SO/9.

Burns has a fastball that sits in the upper-90s and can hit 102 MPH as well, and his slider (or some would call a cutter) is a plus pitch that is one of the best in the nation, His changeup may end up being a very good pitch as well, and he mixes in a curveball as well.

Tennesse is one of the best college programs in the nation, but the transfer to Wake Forest may unlock Burns even more as a pitcher. Their "Pitching Lab" is renowned around the country, and they've become one of the premier pitching programs because of it.

Depending on how Burns develops this next year, he could boast one of the highest ceilings among all pitching prospects in baseball upon his selection. The Cardinals never get to pick this high in drafts, so they would be foolish not to take someone with the kind of ceiling that Burns has with their first selection. There are a lot of great position players in this class as well, so even if the Cardinals don't have a top-3 pick, Burns could still be available, but we'll see how things shake out over the coming months.

LHP/OF Cam Caminiti, Saguaro HS (Scottsdale, Arizona)

The first prep school arm on this list, there is a ton of risk in drafting any pitcher due to arm injuries and the erratic nature of pitching development, but this is especially true with high school arms. But rarely do you find a left-handed high school senior like Cam Caminiti.

It's still too early to tell whether or not Caminiti will commit to pitching or the outfield moving forward. Some few him as having a real future as a two-way player, but unless he ends up being incredible at both, a team like the Cardinals will likely force him to choose a path, with his potential as a starter appearing to win out at the moment.

He will be just shy of his 18th birthday when the 2024 MLB Draft comes around, as he reclassified from the 2025 class in June 2023. At 16 years old, Caminiti had already hit 96 MPH on the radar gun, which is rare for anyone his age. He already had good feel for his slider and curveball as well, which he uses the former as a weapon against lefties and the latter against righties.

His control is something he'll need to work on over the next year, but his pitch mix, frame, and delievery already point to him being a top prosepct. He'll likely be a bit further away in his deveopment, much like Tink Hence, than guys drafted out of high school, but the extra wait could be worth it with his potential ceiling. And who knows? Maybe he can be the next two-way star as well.

LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas

When I watch Hagen Smith pitch, I see a player like Cardinals' prospect Cooper Hjerpe, but with higher velocity, deadlier stuff, and a guy who could be on the fast track to the Major Leagues.

Smith went 8-2 during his sophomore season, posting a 3.64 ERA with 109 SO in 71.2 innings pitched. Smith struck out 9 batters through 3.2 innings against one of the nation's best lineups in LSU last year. This dude can pitch.

Another guy with an upper-90s fastball, while Smith doesn't hit triple-digits like Burns or Brecht, his slider could end up being a plus-plus pitch, something that could end up giving him the edge on other names on this list.

Like Burn, Brecht, and Caminiti, continuing to refine his other pitches (he uses a changeup as well) and working on his command will go a long way toward increasing his stock as a prospect.

Thatcher Hurd, LSU

Another college starter entering his junior year, Thatcher Hurd has excellent stuff and has a chance to rise into the top 10 of draft boards if he can get his production back on track.

After an excellent freshman season with UCLA, posting a 1.06 ERA in 34 innings with a 12.7 SO/9, Hurd struggled quite a bit at LSU, pitching in 23 games but making just 11 starts with his 5.68 ERA in 63.1 innings. He did maintain an 11.9 SO/9, but his BB/9 rose from 2.6 his freshman year to 5.7 at LSU. Even so, his stuff is too good to repeat that again next year.

His fastball sits in the mid-90s but gets up to 98 MPH, and he is able to produce swings and misses with both his curveball and his slider, with his changeup coming along as well as his fourth pitch.

Hurd, in the biggest moment of his college career, tossed six innings of two-run ball while giving up just two hits, two walks, and striking out seven in the College World Series-clinching game for LSU. If Hurd can build off that momentum going into his junior year, he'll be one of the top pitchers available come July.

A lot can change between now and July 2024 when the Cardinals are ready to make their first-round selection. There may end up being a high school or college bat that is too good for them to pass on, but I also think "tie may go to the pitcher" if it's a close call. Adding a pitching talent like this to their organization is something they desperately need, and so far, there looks to be a variety of options in the 2024 draft.