5 risers (and 5 fallers) among the St. Louis Cardinals' top 30 prospects

Most of us don't watch a ton of minor-league baseball. I'm lucky to catch more than one or two games in a given week, and those are usually chosen intentionally. All of this is to say that if fans make time to watch minor league baseball at all, they make time to watch Tink Hence or Masyn Winn, not lower-level or lesser-known prospects. Thus, most of what fans know about those prospects is second (or even third) hand information, which comes from evaluators and lists, such as the one updated recently by MLB Pipeline.

The list in question lists the top 30 prospects within the Cardinals' system. They are graded using an aggregate of projections, tools, performance, and advancement. There was a ton of movement between the new list and the most recent. Part of that is due to an infusion of draft talent. For example, first-round selection Chase Davis immediately slots in at third. This article will exclude 2023 draftees, as they technically haven't had the opportunity to rise or fall. Though players like Zach Levenson have immediately made a positive impact.

Before getting into specific names, it's worth discussing general trends. The new list contains 14 pitchers, compared to 17 on the previous list. Both lists included four lefties. There are also four new additions, not including the six trade deadline pickups on the list. Some notable omissions include Drew Rom, Nick Dunn, and Chandler Redmond.

Now, it is important to note that being left off of this list doesn't mean a player can't contribute in meaningful ways. Brendan Donovan was left off prospect lists for years after being drafted back in 2018. When he received a chance in 2022, at the age of 25, he ran with it, finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting. Now, he's an established regular. There is always upward mobility available to productive players.

Here are the five risers and five fallers in the Cardinals prospect rankings

Victor Scott II - Up 21 Spots

Scott II jumped from 25th to 4th! Suffice it to say, it has been an electric season for the former 5th-round pick. After being taken in the 2022 draft, Scott II immediately displayed his speed and his plate discipline. He left no doubt that those tools would translate to the professional level. However, this season he has completely outdone himself. His numbers are up across the board, and at just 22, he's already dominating AA ball. His Futures Game appearance gained him even more notoriety. Scott II could see the big leagues by the end of next season!

Scott II's speed, which received the maximum grade possible, is somehow even more impressive. In 98 games, he has 74 stolen bases. He's also raising eyebrows in center, with some evaluators believing he could win a gold glove there someday. A play with elite speed and defense can probably get away with some offensive shortcomings, but Scott II is building a complete profile. He's hitting .338 in AA, with an on-base percentage near .400. With his speed, a single often equals a double.

The only hole in his profile is his power tool, which grades out as below average. However, as previously mentioned, elite speed can make up for that, provided he's hitting with the bases empty. He may just be the most exciting leadoff hitter the Cardinals have had in decades! Prepare for the Scott era, because it begins soon!

Our site expert, Josh Jacobs, had Victor Scott II on his podcast "Redbird Rundown" recently. You can check out the interview on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts here.

Moisés Gómez - Down 11 Spots

Gómez dropped 11 spots in the updated rankings. After leading to minors in home runs in 2022, Gómez has taken a step back. He hasn't been a bad hitter by any means, but he certainly isn't replicating his incredible 2022 season. In Spring Training, Gómez revealed just how dangerous his swing-and-miss problem could be.

Though he's striking out slightly less this season, his batting average is down nearly 70 points. Even so, he's still producing elite exit velocities which continue to excite evaluators. Gómez drives the ball with authority. Check out this RBI double!

Gómez may still hit 30 home runs though, and that makes including him on a list like this worth it. He is a member of the 40-man roster and, after putting up strong power numbers in Memphis in back-to-back seasons, deserves the opportunity to play in the majors. Hopefully, with the team out of contention, he'll get that chance down the stretch. This drop is also about the infusion of talent the Cardinals have received. Gómez fell below six trade acquisitions and three draft picks. He can absolutely still play at the major league level.

Luken Baker - Up 10 Spots

Luken Baker, affectionately known as "Nuken" Baker by many, is having his best season as a professional. He has, in many ways, switched places with Gómez this year. It's Baker who leads all of MiLB in homers this year. His 32 big flies have him within striking distance of Memphis' single-season record. He has absolutely nothing left to prove in the minors. Baker is hitting .335 and carries an OBP of .441. He leads the organization in slugging as well. His 54 total extra-base hits would represent a career year for any prospect, and it's only August 11th.

Baker, who was selected in the second round of the 2018 draft, had had a frustrating career to this point. A string of injuries, including multiple fractures, had pushed him to the fringe of the Cardinals' system. It was actually a surprise when he made his way into the previous top 30 list. Some thought he may be lost over the 2022 offseason.

His resurgence is one of the brightest spots in a disappointing season for the club. Baker earned some action with the major league club earlier this season but was given few opportunities. Hopefully, he'll receive a chance to meaningfully contribute later this season.

Joshua Baez - Down 15 Spots

Baez is an incredibly exciting prospect. He posts eye-popping exit velocities and has a cannon for an arm. His big frame is surprisingly athletic and he may be a plus defender in right field. Unfortunately, Baez strikes out, and he strikes out a lot.

He's already racked up 90 strikeouts in 225 at-bats in 2023. Such numbers, even paired with immense power potential, are worrisome. His strikeout rate has fallen slightly since last season, but not enough.

Baez still has plenty of exciting tools. He's loaded with power and could easily hit 25 homers in the bigs if he can tamp down on the strikeouts. Baez is still worth monitoring, as he is nearing the upper minors. He's also very young, having just turned 20 in June. He certainly wouldn't be the first hitter to develop a more complete profile in his early 20s. Cardinals officials and fans alike should exercise patience with the young outfielder.

Brycen Mautz - Down 12 Spots

Mautz dropping 12 spots is a perfect example of why these lists are a tool and shouldn't completely control how we view prospects. Mautz is actually having a really great debut season. He's pitching to an ERA of 3.39 with 98 strikeouts in 90 innings. Mautz is walking more hitters than he'd like, but it's not a glaring issue. He's also preventing home runs at an elite rate.

Part of this drop, as it was with Gómez, is about the infusion of new talent the Cardinals have experienced through trades and the draft. However, that doesn't explain a 12-spot drop. It must be noted that the Cardinals do not base their evaluations on these lists. Mautz has the same value to them today that he had before this list was released. The whole thing is a bit strange, especially considering the strong stretch he's currently enjoying. The Southpaw was the Cardinals' minor league pitcher of the month in July.

Mautz has the swing-and-miss stuff to someday join the Cardinals' rotation. At best, he could pitch in the two or three slot. The biggest knock on him so far is probably his age and the low level at which he is pitching. However, that has nothing to do with him, and everything to do with the Cardinals' decision-making. They should treat him more aggressively. Perhaps they'll give him the chance to move up to Peoria this season. That would be an opportunity he has earned, considering his strong numbers in Palm Beach.

Ian Bedell - Up 5 Spots

Bedell is now ranked 16th, the highest he's been since the 2021 list, which ranked him 14th. The reason is health. Since being taken in the legendary 2020 draft, he's dealt with a number of injuries. Now, Bedell is finally available to pitch. In 22 games (14 starts) Bedell has recorded a 2.32 ERA at Peoria. He may get the opportunity to pitch in Springfield before the season ends. He has certainly earned it. Bedell is maintaining an excellent strikeout rate while preventing walks at a strong level.

Bedell is proving that his injuries didn't hamper his development and is on the brink of reaching the upper minors. In Springfield and Memphis, we'll be able to more accurately determine his ceiling, but right now the right-hander has the look of a mid-rotation stalwart. His large frame could help him become a true workhorse, assuming the past injuries are completely behind him. Bedell is someone that every Cardinals fan should know moving forward. With health on his side, the majors could be just two years away.

Mike Antico - Down 9 Spots

Antico is a baffling case. He's made obvious gains this year. After struggling in AA last year, his average is up nearly 30 points, his slugging percentage is up nearly 80 points. He's having a career year in every way. Oh, and he's also stolen 40 bases in the process.

Antico's 14 home runs in 92 games in 2023 match his total from 2022. Half of those came at a lower level, too. Antico is, without a doubt, having the best season of his professional career. The Victor Scott II hype is deserved, but don't let it block out Antico's potential and success. Together, they're an elite base-stealing duo, and both deserve considerable appreciation.

The drop is probably due to several factors, but his age is the central one. Antico was old when he was drafted, and has been older than the competition at each stop. He was taken at 23 years of age. He's now 25 and has yet to reach AAA. However, that isn't his fault. All he can control is his performance, which has been outstanding. Antico possesses the tools to hit 15 homers and swipe 40 bags while playing plus defense. That's a really exciting player!

Hopefully, the Cardinals see him that way and give him a chance to contribute in 2024. Reaching AAA is a huge step in the right direction, and if he does that before the end of the 2023 season, he has a great chance to debut in St. Louis in 2024.

Edwin Nunez - Up 6 Spots

Nunez has been a positive for the Cardinals in 2023. After two tough years in the minors, he's put it all together in 2023. Since moving up to Peoria, Nunez has been even better. In 14 appearances (all in relief) he's pitched to a 2.25 ERA. He's picked up 3 saves in the process.

His electric fastball is one of the system's best, and when paired with a strong changeup, it could become even better. He throws a slider as well, and it has made noticeable improvements in 2023. Nunez should move quickly as a reliever, and could easily reach the majors by 2025.

He's likely to remain in Peoria for the rest of 2023, and how he progresses over the offseason will likely determine where he begins in 2024. Nunez was highly regarded when he was signed back in 2020 and is now displaying what evaluators believed he could be. His current ranking, 22nd, is as high as he's been ranked since the 2021 list, which ranked him as the organization's 13th-best prospect.

Gordon Graceffo - Down 3 Spots

Graceffo dropping three spots isn't a huge deal. He's only on this list because of his status as a top prospect. Graceffo was selected in the fifth round of the 2021 draft out of Villanova. He broke out in a huge way in 2022. His fastball is one of the best in the Cardinals' system, and it's a big reason why some believe he has front-of-the-rotation potential.

This season has been a letdown by comparison. Graceffo has been considerably less effective in Memphis. He's walking more batters than previously and his strikeout rate has fallen. He is, however, doing a better job preventing home runs.

The real problem with 2023 has been health. Graceffo has been limited to 13 starts this year, though he's healthy now. After missing all of May and half of June, Graceffo looked better in June and July. This season will not dramatically affect how the Cardinals view Graceffo. His promotion to AAA was aggressive, and many anticipated that he would struggle as he adjusted to the level. Injuries have lengthened that adjustment period. Graceffo has plenty of time on his side.

Dropping three spots on this list is irrelevant to his (or really anyone's) development. It is possible that Graceffo appears for the Cardinals in September, but a 2024 call-up is more likely. He's going to be fun to watch!