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#5 - Bryce Rainer (Harvard-Westlake High School)
Over the last few months, there has been more and more momentum from *some* scouting outlets that the Cardinals will draft high school prospect Bryce Rainer in the first round of this year's draft. Let's talk about Rainer the prospect first, and they why I feel that it is unlikely.
Rainer is a SS/RHP out of Harvard-Westlake High School in California and is committed to the University of Texas as of now. You may recognize his high school, as it's the same one that produced Jack Flaherty, Max Fried, Lucas Giolito, and Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Rainer has upside as both a hitter and pitcher, but it's likely the Cardinals would be drafting him as a shortstop. His raw power and frame at 6'3 have scouts dreaming on if he can be one of the next elite hitting shortstops that we've seen in recent years. Rainer's hit tool seems to be up for debate amongst scouts, but most see it as an above-average tool long-term. He has elite arm talent as well, so even if he does not stick at shortstop, his arm will play at third base.
Bryce Rainer is the latest top prospect to emerge from high school powerhouse Harvard-Westlake.
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 10, 2024
But he's carving a path of his own -- even as he draws comparisons to a two-time World Series MVP: https://t.co/OoE4hjSIQq pic.twitter.com/r0w6pAEDUE
While every player has risk, Rainer will be firmly in that boom or bust class, but someone near the top 10 is going to take a chance on Rainer being an elite talent moving forward. The Cardinals would have to be very patient with him in order to maximize his potential, but if they believe he is the best player available, you make him the pick.
Here is why I don't see the Cardinals believing Rainer is the best player available. By all accounts, we should expect Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon, and Jac Caglianone to go within the first six picks. I already mentioned four players above Rainer that the Cardinals would probably target over him, meaning, I don't think Rainer will be their "guy" when it is time to pick.
The one curveball situation where that could be the case is if Caglianone falls down the board. I haven't really seen anyone think the Cardinals would select him, so if Bazzana, Condon, Wetherholt, Burns, Smith, and Montgomery were all gone at pick six, then Rainer would be the pick.