5 prospects at risk of being traded by the Cardinals for a frontline starting pitcher

If the St. Louis Cardinals want to swing big for another rotation upgrade this offseason, it could require them to part with significant prospects to make a deal happen.

This is especially the case when it comes to a player like Dylan Cease, who the Cardinals are reportedly interested in and is expected to be moved this offseason. This would also apply to a Tyler Glasnow trade, or any deal for a starting pitcher that the Mariners or Marlins may be interested in moving, as they may want prospects attached to the bats they are seeking.

The Cardinals farm system is not among the most highly ranked in baseball, in large part due to recent graduations from names like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Matthew Liberatore, and Alec Burleson, who were all top 100 prospects at various points. That is part of why so many teams covet their young big-league talent because they are MLB-proven contributors with high ceilings.

Still, there are a number of names in the Cardinals' farm system who a team like the White Sox, Mariners, or Marlins could want in trade negotiations. They have some high upside arms in the system now who could move the needle. It may seem counter-intuitive to trade young pitching for pitching, but it's worth the cost if it nets the Cardinals a top starter.

The industry also really values how the Cardinals develop young bats. They have taken top prospects like Walker, Gorman, and Burleson, helping them carve out roles on a Major League roster, and in the cases of Walker and Gorman, project to be very good hitters for a long time. They also have a knack for developing "diamonds in the rough", such as Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Tommy Edman.

I want to look at five different prospects I think could be at risk of being dealt by the Cardinals this offseason in a major trade. None of these names are guys I think they would move on from outside of getting a significant player in return. If I'm being honest, I think almost every name in the Cardinals system could be had for the levels of players we are talking about, but these prospects in particular seem like possible candidates if a major deal gets done.

Gordon Graceffo

Last offseason, Gordon Graceffo was highly sought after by other MLB teams in trade talks. After a breakout year in the Cardinals' system, they were rightfully hesitant to move him, but a weird 2023 may have changed that.

After posing a 2.97 ERA in 139.1 innings across High-A and Double-A, Graceffo battled an injury in 2023, throwing just 86 innings with a 4.92 ERA.

Graceffo is still the Cardinals' third-best pitching prospect according to MLB.com and should get big league innings at some point in 2023, which may be appealing to other clubs that will need innings immediately. Graceffo isn't someone the Cardinals should be looking to move on from, but he also should not be held onto if a deal is there.

I personally would rank Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, and Cooper Hjerpe above Graceffo when I am thinking of the best Cardinals' pitching prospects. With more arms in Triple-A like Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, and Michael McGreevy, as well as guys like Zack Thompson, Drew Rom, and Matthew Liberatore getting big-league innings already, Graceffo feels expendable compared to his status last year.

Again, there is no rush to move him, but I would include him in a deal for Cease or even Glasnow at this point. The Cardinals' need for another front-end starter is too great to pass on the opportunity, and Graceffo could be a piece of that puzzle to get them there.

Tink Hence

Tink Hence has all the tools to be an elite pitching prospect, but at the same time, the risk with him is very real.

After starting off 2023 very strong in High-A, Hence struggled in his 12 starts at the Double-A level, posting a 5.47 ERA and walking 22 batters in 54.1 innings of work. Hence really struggled with command on his off-speed pitches last year, and he really needs to get that back on track to regain his trajectory.

The other concern when it comes to Hence is his starter. He threw just 52.1 innings in 2022 and was worked up to 96 innings in 2023, and it's unclear if he'll be able to handle a starter's workload at a high level in the future. This concern is both about the amount of innings he can throw and if his body can hold up over time. The hope is that he can, but there's a world where he ends up being a bullpen arm instead.

Still, there is so much to like about Hence that even with all of those concerns, he remains a top-50 prospect in baseball and someone the Cardinals value highly. He struck out 81 batters in those 52.1 innings in 2022 and punched out an additional 99 in his 96 innings in 2023.

I think Hence only really comes into play in a potential Dylan Cease trade, especially if the Cardinals are able to avoid including Nolan Gorman or Brendan Donovan. If they do that, they'll likely need to include multiple top prospects, with one of them being an arm like Hence. Otherwise, I do not see a deal that Hence could be moved in this offseason. I do think the Cardinals would much rather move Hence than their Major League bats though, which is why I believe he's at risk of being dealt this offseason.

Cooper Hjerpe

I'm talking a lot about the White Sox in this story, mainly because they are a team the Cardinals are directly linked with and it would be prospect-heavy, but wouldn't it be ironic if Cooper Hjerpe ended up in Chicago?

When people watch Hjerpe pitch, people immediately draw comparisons to Chris Sale based on his delivery and arm slot. While I don't think anyone is projecting Hjerpe to be the elite pitcher Sale was, there are many who are extremely high on him.

Hjerpe only threw 41 innings for High-A Peoria due to injury this year, but struck out 51 batters in the process and posted a 3.51 ERA. The Cardinals had him throw in the Arizona Fall League this year to recoup some of that lost time, and he struck out 15 batters in 8.1 innings of work.

While Hjerpe isn't a high-velocity guy, he's extremely deceptive with his stuff due to the way he pitches and could be a guy who maintains a higher strikeout rate as he continues to progress. His breaking stuff, especially his slider, are what could make him a truly exciting starter long-term.

I am a big fan of Hjerpe, but again, by adding some arms to their system at the deadline and with the opportunity to add a top-end starter, making Hjerpe available would not be a bad idea from St. Louis. The fact that he has already had elbow issues may lead them to move off of him as well.

Chase Davis

The Cardinals' first-round pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, outfielder Chase Davis is the third-ranked prospect in their system according to MLB.com, and has a high ceiling as a powerful left-handed bat.

Drafted out of the University of Arizona, Davis has drawn comparisons to Carlos Gonzalez because of their very similar swings. In 147 games for Arizona, Davis slashed .319/.444/.644 with 39 HR and 132 RBI.

Davis may be able to stick in center field long-term but is more likely an above-average corner outfielder defensively. In his first 104 at-bats at the Single-A level, he posted just a .635 OPS, struggling to get hits and not hitting any home runs.

It is way too early to react to his slow start, especially with a player as raw as Davis and who is not expected to make an impact in St. Louis until at least 2026. Getting that first exposure to professional talent and using a wooden bat should be helpful for Davis as he trains this offseason and looks to make a name for himself.

Still, a team could really like the upside play of Davis, and thus I could see him moving in a deal for a starter. The Cardinals have so much outfield depth, both at the Major League level and organizationally, so I wouldn't be worried about their long-term outfield outlook.

It would hurt to give up a talent like Davis and see him thrive elsewhere, but if he ended up in a package, I think he'd be one of the two most valuable pieces. Again, if I'm the Cardinals, I'd much rather give up an unknown like Davis than one of my promising (and proven) Major League bats.