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5 potential trade destinations for Cardinals Dylan Carlson
Does the former top prospect of the Cardinals need a change of scenery for the 2024 season?
In what is expected to be an entertaining, rumor-swirling offseason involving the Cardinals, we could see a versatile switch-hitting center fielder on the move.
Dylan Carlson was the 33rd overall pick in the 2016 MLB draft as a compensation pick for John Lackey signing with the Cubs in free agency. He made a quick rise in the Cardinal farm system, getting to the big leagues during the 2020 season at the age of 21, he ended that season as the Cardinals' top prospect according to MLB.com.
The following season Carlson had an impressive rookie campaign, slashing .266/.343/.437 with 18 home runs and 65 RBI, and he finished 3rd in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, Unfortunately for Carlson, he has not been able to stay healthy over the past couple seasons and it has affected his play. His overall offensive numbers are down across the board, and he was limited to just 76 games in 2023.
So why would the Cardinals consider trading Carlson? When he was out due to injury the Cardinals seemed to be impressed with Tommy Edman in center field, and it may be the only spot for Edman if Masyn Winn is going to be the starting shortstop in 2024. Also, prospect Victor Scott II has put himself on the map as one of the more exciting Cardinal prospects in recent memory, he could find himself with the big club sooner than we think. For the corner outfield spots, Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar seem to be the most likely candidates for those positions, but Carlson may be left out of the equation.
With Carlson only being 25 years old with plenty of upside, he could attract other teams this off-season that are looking for a young outfielder with five-tool qualities. We have heard rumors regarding a couple of teams that have engaged in interest for Carlson, and there are some teams that we have not heard in the rumor mill but would make sense. But the most recent reporting has been on a team that the Cardinals traded with three times during the 2023 season.
1. Toronto Blue Jays
Several reports say that the Blue Jays have an interest in acquiring Carlson. And some of the reports have suggested that the Cardinals could see pitcher Alek Manoah as part of the return for him.
After Manoah was an All-Star pitcher and Cy Young finalist in 2022, he had an abysmal 2023 season that led to multiple demotions to the minor league and major question marks regarding his ability to get back to where he was two seasons ago.
A Carlson for Manoah trade would include two players who have had the high prospect label on them for several years, and have shown some promise at the big-league level but have not had the level of consistency that you'd want to see. And maybe a change of scenery for both of those players could be beneficial for them.
For the Blue Jays, Kevin Kiermaier is a free agent, so they are looking for someone similar to him from a defensive standpoint in center field if they can't re-sign him. It has been reported that the Jays have also shown interest in Michael A. Taylor who fits the build as well as a defense-first center fielder with some offensive upside. So it is obvious as to what the Blue Jays want in regards to a center fielder, Carlson would surely fit their needs.
2. New York Yankees
There were some reports at the Trade Deadline that suggested that the Cardinals were very close to trading Carlson to the Yankees, but it is believed that the return package was what shut the trade down.
It was almost the second consecutive season where the two franchises with the most World Series championships made a deadline trade, as the Cardinals shipped Harrison Bader to the Yankees for Jordan Montgomery in 2022.
The Yankees are in need for athleticism and hitters with bat-to-ball skills, which is why they nearly traded for Carlson, and have also shown interest in fellow Cardinal hitters Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson.
Now that the Yankees lost the aforementioned Bader to waivers in August, they are looking for a center fielder again. But what may prevent the Cardinals from trading Carlson to New York is that if the Cardinals were not interested in the return for Carlson, then why would the Yankees offer more after the disappointing injury-riddled season Carlson just endured?
Unless the Cardinals were willing to include somebody with more value, like a Donovan to that equation, then that might convince the Yankees to deal away a more controllable arm that the Cardinals are desperately searching for this off-season.
In 2023 the Yankees were 20th in the league in strikeouts per game offensively and they had the 6th most errors in the league, Carlson is just one of a handful of players on the Cardinals that could help the Yankees in those areas.
3. San Francisco Giants
The remaining teams on this list have not been reported to be interested in Carlson, but they could very possibly be a fit. The Giants will most likely be looking for an offensive player as they were one of the worst-hitting teams in the league in 2023 (24th in the league in runs per game), but they will be in severe need of defensive improvement too.
Last season the Giants committed 117 errors, the most in the league. So surely they will be looking to make defensive upgrades anywhere on the field for next season. The Giants also do not have a primary center fielder, last season the player who had the most starts at center field was Luis Matos, who made his major league debut back in June with 48 starts. But the Giants had 6 players last year make at least 10 starts in center and 10 different players total, granted that the then manager Gabe Kapler liked using multiple platoons to get the best match-up at the plate, under new manager Bob Melvin you might see a more traditional approach, which could make Carlson a fit.
When Matos was in center field he had a -9 DRS ( Defensive Runs Saved on average), while Carlson has a career DRS of +7 in center, which is why I think the Giants will be an intriguing team in the coming days/weeks to see if their name comes up in the Carlson trade rumors.
4. Boston Red Sox
In some ways, the Red Sox and Giants are similar in how their seasons went in 2023 and how they are expected to approach the offseason, and in some ways, they are not so similar.
Both the Red Sox and Giants are coming off their second consecutive disappointing season, which led to firings and dismissals, for the Giants it was manager Gabe Kapler, and for the Red Sox, it was Chief Baseball Officer and President Chaim Bloom. Like the Giants the Red Sox struggled defensively, they were tied with the A's for the second most errors in baseball, but most of that came from Rafael Devers who committed 19 errors last season. The Red Sox actually look steady in the outfield as it stands right now.
For most of the season, the Red Sox had Masatka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, and Alex Verdugo manning their outfield, so Carlson would likely fit best as a complimentary fourth outfielder. But if the Alex Verdugo trade rumors are true, then Carlson would theoretically be competing for a starting spot with rookies Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu.
And despite having what seems to be three close-to-everyday players in the outfield, outside of Verdugo the Red Sox could use an upgrade defensively in their outfield, primarily at center field as their center fielders had a -9 DRS last season. So whether that means being the fourth outfielder or a late-game defensive replacement, it's possible that Carlson would fit with Boston in 2024.
5. Miami Marlins
It feels like every time you discuss the Marlins in trade rumors, it seems like they always need a bat, and they use their surplus of pitching to get the bat that they want, and that might be the case again this off-season.
2023 was one of the more successful seasons in their franchise, they fought through a rough patch in the second half and then some real adversity in the last week of the season to sneak their way into the postseason for just the 4th time in their history. Their postseason run was short-lived but it was still a great season for them, led by first-year manager, and former Cardinals player/coach Skip Schumaker.
What would make Carlson a potential fit with Miami is if the Marlins and their new president Peter Bendix, think that center field is the best spot for Jazz Chisholm Jr. Chisholm is one of the more electric and savvy players in the game and somebody you'd expect Miami to build around, but unfortunately for him he has not stayed healthy, he has missed 167 games in the last two seasons. But the talent is clearly there, as in just 97 games in 2023 he was one home run shy of a 20-20 season.
Chisholm spent most of his time at 2nd base his first three years in the league, but after the Marlins acquired the now 2X batting champion Luis Arraez last off-season, Chisholm was moved into the outfield and defensively he struggled, understandably since he never played the outfield until last season. He had a -9 defensive runs saved in center field after having a +7 DRS at second base in '21 and '22.
Center field may not be the best place for Chisholm long term, if the Marlins agree to that assessment, they might look for somebody that is more defensively reliable in the outfield where you could see Carlson fitting in with Miami.
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