5 players the Cardinals will wish they had acquired this offseason

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The St. Louis Cardinals have been linked to several pitchers this offseason as they looked to bolster their rotation and bullpen. However, they're obviously not able to land every name they were linked to. So far, they've signed Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Sonny Gray for the rotation and traded for Andrew Kittredge in the bullpen. While probably sufficient, the rotation still could use some improvements, and another bullpen arm is necessary. So, which of the players that they failed to land this offseason will they regret most?

Tyler Glasnow

After landing Gibson, Lynn, and Gray, it looked like the Cardinals might've been content with the 2024 rotation. However, Tyler Glasnow himself confirmed St. Louis was one of the teams interested in trading for him before he was traded to the Dodgers and signed an extension. The Dodgers traded Ryan Pepiot and Jonny Deluca for Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot, and $4 million in cash considerations.

An equivalent for this deal probably would've been Tink Hence and a mid-tier Cardinals prospect. Of course, this would not have been an appropriate trade package without a guaranteed extension, but the $136.5 million deal for 5 years could be a bargain if he stays healthy. Glasnow is one of the most talented pitchers in the entire league and could provide the Cardinals with a frontline ace for many years to come.

Of course, the main concern with Tyler Glasnow is his extensive injury history. Glasnow's 120 innings in 2023 is a career-high and only the second time he's ever eclipsed 100 innings in his 8-year MLB career. However, the Dodgers are clearly comfortable giving him a large contract, and Glasnow has expressed his confidence that he can stay on the field in the future. If this is the case, the Cardinals may find themselves looking back at a missed opportunity to acquire one of the best pitchers in baseball below market value.

Aaron Nola

In one of the first signings of the offseason, Aaron Nola returned to the Phillies on a 7-year, $172 million contract. With an AAV of just under $25 million, Nola signed for less money per year than Cardinals' starter Sonny Gray. Nola probably could've received more money had he chosen to go elsewhere, but if the Cardinals were able to sign Nola to the same deal, this could've been a huge missed opportunity.

Nola's elite strikeout rate headlining the Cardinals' rotation would've marked a change in the pitch-to-contact philosophy to a more swing-and-miss focus. While the front office has made that philosophical change in the bullpen, it remains to be seen if the rotation will have a more strikeout-oriented focus in 2024. With questions about the viability of pitch-to-contact at the forefront of the 2023 Cardinals' struggles, the addition of Nola would've eased doubts for 2024.

While questions about Nola's viability in the future as a frontline ace were ever-present in 2023, as his velocity, strikeout rate, and run prevention took all took concerning dips, there's no doubt the Phillies re-signed him at a bargain deal this offseason. Nola's Postseason performance in 2023 was also very good. In four starts he went 3-1 and gave the Phillies a solid chance to win in each outing. His ability to go deep into Postseason starts is also a rarity, as many starting pitchers are pulled at the first sign of trouble in the playoffs.

Even if his numbers dip a bit from career norms, Nola's new contract would've been an absolute bargain for St. Louis. Of course, he gave Philly a hometown discount, but if the Cardinals come face to face with him in the Postseason like they did in 2022, Cardinal fans may wish the front office had paid a bit extra for Nola this offseason.

Woo-Suk Go

When I saw the contract details for Woo-Suk Go's deal with the San Diego Padres, I was shocked. Of course, for a reliever from Korea as of yet unproven at the MLB level, I didn't expect Go to get Josh Hader-type money, but I also didn't expect him only to sign for 2 years, $4.5 million. The Cardinals were extremely active in the reliever market, so I expected them to make an offer that at least matched San Diego's (which they probably did). Unlike with Yuki Matsui, who the Cardinals were probably hesitant to give a 4-year deal to, there's no reason for them not to take a chance at Go at less than $3 million a year for 2 years.

It's clear from the contract details that Go preferred San Diego compared to other teams or he would've signed elsewhere for more money. For a 25-year-old reliever with pretty high upside, the Cardinals surely would be willing to take that chance on Go. However, due to location or comfortability, Go chose the Padres. Perhaps he coveted a West Coast market all along, or his familiarity with WBC teammate Ha-Seong Kim factored into his decision. We'll never really know.

Reliever performance is among the most volatile and difficult to predict in all of baseball. There's a chance Go becomes an All-Star, but there's also a chance he plays terribly and is released before the season ends. However, as one of the top closers in the KBO, I expect him to perform relatively well as a high-leverage option out of the bullpen. And for the affordable price the Cardinals could've signed him for, they'll certainly wish Go had chosen St. Louis instead of San Diego.

Chris Sale

With the acquisition of Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, the bulk of innings from the starting rotation is all but guaranteed for 2024. This allowed the Cardinals to target buy-low candidates this offseason, and none may have been better than Chris Sale. Traded from Boston to Atlanta for shortstop prospect Vaughn Grissom, the cost really wasn't that high. Perhaps Dylan Carlson and a mid-tier prospect would've gotten the deal done.

Moreover, the Red Sox are covering Sale's entire salary for 2024, meaning the Braves won't be restricted by this move financially at all. Despite being plagued by unfortunate injury after unfortunate injury, Sale showed in 2024 that he can still be a serviceable middle-rotation starter. He pitched to a 4.30 ERA, but his expected 3.80 FIP indicated he was a bit unlucky. Moreover, he still posted an elite 11.0 K/9 even in a season derailed by a midseason injury.

Since the Cardinals wouldn't dream of exceeding the luxury tax anyway, trading for Sale essentially means getting him for free. And if they only needed to part with a high-upside offensive piece that didn't fit into their future plays like Vaughn Grissom for the Braves, it should've been a no-brainer. If Sale is injured, no real problem, but if Sale pitches anywhere near his Cy Young-level past self, he'd transform the Cardinals rotation from merely being serviceable to a serious threat in the Postseason. If Chris Sale finds a new gear in Atlanta and stays healthy all season, the Cardinals will wish they had acquired him from the Red Sox instead.

Shohei Ohtani

If you've followed my coverage of Cardinals baseball at all, you probably knew this one was coming. But I promise, I still have good reasons for this. After seeing that Shohei Ohtani had signed for 10 years, $700 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers, I was stunned and completely fine that the Cardinals had not given him such a ridiculous number.

However, once more details about Ohtani's contract were revealed, I realized Ohtani's contract with the Dodgers might actually be a bargain rather than a complete overpay. With the $680 million that Ohtani deferred until 2034 and beyond, the present value of his contract is much less than initially thought. According to the MLB Commissioner's office, it's only worth around $460 million a year, which is the number that will be used to calculate the Dodgers' inevitable luxury tax penalties.

If we value Ohtani's contract at $460 million, which is what it's worth in present-day money, we see a much more reasonable contract number, one that the Cardinals could certainly afford. In fact, the reported $500 million that the Chicago Cubs offered was even more than the Dodgers' offer (Thank you Shohei for not even meeting with the Cubs, all of Cardinal Nation appreciates that).

Now, let's split Ohtani into two players, the hitter and the pitcher. After all, this is the only way to gauge the value of his contract. If Ohtani the hitter were making Bryce Harper's AAV of $26 million a year, he'd sign a 10-year $260 million deal. Harper's deal is viewed as a massive bargain today, but Ohtani's value as a hitter even exceeds Harper's. Looking at Harper's first 6 seasons in Washington, he recorded a 140 OPS+, while Ohtani recorded a 148 OPS+ in his run with Anaheim (one which included an abysmal 2020 season where he only batted .190). Ohtani improved drastically throughout his Angels run while Harper was fairly consistent. Both players also exhibit similar defensive inflexibility as Harper is now restricted to first base and DH while Ohtani is a pure DH when not on the mound.

This leaves Ohtani the pitcher at 10-years, $200 million. He won't pitch next season due to his UCL reconstruction surgery, so for the sake of this argument let's say 9-years $200 million. At an AAV of just over $22 million a year, that's again less annually than the Cardinals are paying Sonny Gray, and for Ohtani's track record as one of the top starters in all of MLB, again an absolute steal.

Sure, the Cardinals wouldn't have bolstered their 2024 rotation by adding him, but when it comes to a once-in-a-generation talent like Shohei Ohtani, exceptions can be made. I haven't even taken into account the business benefits Ohtani will bring to the Dodgers. In one fell swoop, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed one of the most talented baseball players ever for 10 years of potential championship runs, won over the hearts of baseball fans in Japan, and did it at an affordable price. Of course, any Major League team should be envious, including the Cardinals

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Tyler Glasnow

Aaron Nola

Woo-Suk Go

Chris Sale

Shohei Ohtani

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