5 pitchers that the Cardinals would be making a massive mistake trading for

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The St. Louis Cardinals appear ready to add to their starting rotation at this year's trade deadline. The question is not so much whether the Cardinals will trade for another starting pitcher as it is what kind of starting pitcher they will acquire when they make a trade.

If you look at John Mozeliak's tenure with the Cardinals, you'll see that he tends to be conservative at the trade deadline, aiming for the Jose Quintana, J.A. Happ, and Jon Lester kinds of trades over going after the best arm available. Sometimes they do get a bit creative though - trading their starting center fielder Harrison Bader for Jordan Montgomery or the duo of Allen Craig and Joe Kelly for John Lackey.

But I also think we forget that Mozeliak has been aggressive in the past - given the right player. Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch were two of many who reported the Cardinals were heavily interested in acquiring David Price at the 2014 Trade Deadline (and they followed up that interest in the offseason with a massive contract offer). Mozeliak also once traded for impending free agent Matt Holliday at the 2009 Trade Deadline.

Both of those situations are lightyears ago in the baseball world, but still, it's the same guy in charge, so I won't say "never" to the Cardinals getting aggressive for a starting pitcher again. I think it is safe to say they won't be in the Garrett Crochet or Tarik Skubal market during the deadline, but I really do think they could explore acquiring a Max Scherzer, Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi, or Kevin Gausman-level pitcher.

While we'll have plenty of conversations about what starters they should be targeting, there are specific arms set to be available at this deadline that I think would be major mistakes to go out and trade for, specifically for St. Louis. I'm not necessarily even talking about names that would make for underwhelming headlines, I'm talking about players that either do not move the needle at all over what they have or may even come back to bite them in terms of what production they get and what they gave up to get those arms.

Here are five starting pitchers that the Cardinals would be making a major mistake trading for

Tyler Anderson

If you look solely at the surface-level numbers, well, mostly just at his ERA, Tyler Anderson would look like a major upgrade for the Cardinals' rotation. I'm here to tell you that not only would he be a minor upgrade at best, but he'd also really hurt the club's ability to upgrade next season as well.

While Anderson's 2.97 ERA and All-Star nod this year seem encouraging, everything about his output so far screams that he's due for hard regression. Anderson ranks in the 40th percentile or lower in the following categories this year: xERA, xBA, fastball velocity, K%, BB%, GB%, and extension. Basically, Anderson's fastball averages under 90 MPH, he is one of the worst pitchers in baseball in striking hitters out while walking more batters than 70% of the league, and he does this while getting barreled up more than most starters and is one of the worst in baseball at inducing groundballs.

Looking at all of that, it is amazing to think he's even been able to maintain that 2.97 ERA thus far. For the year, Anderson has a 4.42 xERA, 4.60 FIP, and 5.02 xFIP as a fastball/change-up dominant pitcher. The only thing in his profile that is even all that encouraging is that he has induced a lot of weak contact this year, but that doesn't seem all that sustainable when he cannot keep the ball on the ground, get hitters to swing and miss, or even avoid walks.

One of the selling points about Anderson that you'll actually see from MLB Insiders is that he has another year remaining on his contract at $11 million. While that's not a crazy number to pay any starter who hits free agency, I have no idea why Cardinal fans would be interested in adding that number to their 2026 payroll. They already have Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz under contract for next year with super team-friendly club options on Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, there really in no reason to add Anderson to that mix.

While the Angels do have some interesting pieces on the trade block, the Cardinals should not touch Anderson with a ten-foot pole.

Paul Blackburn

While it may be less likely that Paul Blackburn is moved as he is still making rehab starts on his way back from a foot injury, the Cardinals should just write off all interest, even if Blackburn appears to be healthy upon his return.

A few years ago, Blackburn was a sneaky trade candidate for the Cardinals and other teams around the league who would want a middle or back-end of the rotation starter with team control. But given the state of the Cardinals' rotation right now, I really do not see why Blackburn makes sense to add to their mix, nor why they'd pay up to get a pitcher of his profile with control.

Blackburn has a lot of the same issues that Anderson has, but there are some more redeeming parts of his profile. While his basic numbers are far worse than Anderson's this year, posting a 4.11 ERA in eight starts, Blackburn does create a lot of ground balls along with his weak contact, and he won't cost the Cardinals much in terms of dollars until he hits free agency after the 2025 season.

Here's my thing, when Blackburn first started seeing his name in trade rumors back in 2022, there was some hope that he could continue to develop as a really good groundball pitcher, but he's never really posted anything above what a number four or number five starter would produce throughout his career. If the Cardinals are going to acquire a starter for the backend of their rotation, then they should be targeting a rental arm.

I'm not trying to act like it would take a haul to get Blackburn from Oakland, but I just do not see the point in paying whatever the premium is they'd want. The Cardinals eyes should be focused on impact starters, not low-ceiling names with control.

Trevor Rogers

Like Blackburn, Marlins' Trevor Rogers is no stranger to his name being in trade rumors over the last few seasons. But unlike Blackburn, Rogers has actually shown the ability to be an impact starter in the past. Unfortunately, he's never been able to regain the magic he found during his 2021 breakout season.

In Rogers' first full season, the lefty posted a 2.64 ERA and 2.55 FIP while averaging 10.62 K/9, finishing second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting ahead of Dylan Carlson. Like Carlson, things have only been downhill for Rogers since then, as he's posted a 5.02 ERA in the 46 starts he has made since 2022.

It's not hard to see why. Roger's fastball is almost 3 MPH slower this year than it was in 2021,
his strikeout percentage has dipped over 10% to just 18.4%, and he just is not fooling hitters like he was able to when he first came up. Pair that with an increased walk rate as well and a massive injury history, and I'm not sure what the "pros" are to acquiring a guy like Rogers anymore.

I don't think this would be a crazy thing to look at in the offseason, or maybe take a flyer on him if the Marlins are interested in a swap with someone like Dylan Carlson, but there is no world where Rogers can be the guy the Cardinals sell fans on as their rotation upgrade this season. Sure, he has shown that upside in the past, but there is little reason to believe that he still has that potential in him, or at least little reason to believe it could be unlocked anytime this season.

Like the other names above, adding in the fact that he has club control makes this even more of a "no" for me. Don't get me wrong, I love the idea of adding guys who can have an impact beyond this season, but not when the ceiling is so low in the immediate future and you're mostly paying for the potential of 2025 and beyond.

Cal Quantrill

Last offseason, Cal Quantrill was someone that fans and media speculated could be an addition to the Cardinals' roster. Much like Rogers, Quantrill has been a highly effective starter in the past, but after falling off with the Guardians in 2023, he was non-tendered by the club.

From 2020-2022, Quantrill pitched in 90 games and made 57 starts, posting a 2.08 ERA in the process. But if you look at the underlying numbers for Quantrill, you'll see that most of his success seemed very "Dakota Hudson" like, major walk rate, lack of strikeout stuff, and really relied on groundball luck to find success.

All of that success came crashing down in 2023, leading to a 5.24 ERA in 19 starts, coupled with a 1.47 WHIP and 13% strikeout rate. Even after three highly successful years for the Guardians, the club decided they'd just release him after that poor season, and it shows you just how little confidence they had in him.

To be fair, Quantrill has been better this year with the Rockies, posting a 4.13 ERA in 19 starts thus far. Oddly enough, Quantrill is pitching better at Coors Field this year (4.00 ERA) than he is on the road (4.24 ERA). Even though the results have been better, I just don't see why the Cardinals would value what Quantrill brings over Andre Pallante, Steven Matz, or even some of their Triple-A arms.

Although it seemed like speculation, Jim Bowden has already connected the Cardinals to Quantrill, and if they went down that path, it better be in addition to a better starter than him. I could see bringing in Quantrill as depth in case multiple injuries happen and they just need a guy to make starts, but he does not upgrade the Cardinals in any shape or form from their current group of starters, so he cannot be sold as the answer.

Austin Gomber

Lastly, another Colorado Rockies starter seems to be available in trades this July, but this one actually was sent to the Rockies by the Cardinals in the Nolan Arenado trade.

Austin Gomber actually got off to a hot start for the Rockies this year, but on the season, he's posted a mediocre 4.61 ERA and 4.92 FIP in his 18 starts for Colorado. He is a lefty though, something the Cardinals could use in their rotation, but other than his handedness, I'm not sure why St. Louis would be interested.

Gomber, even more so than Quantrill, cannot use the Coors Field effect to defend his bad numbers either. On the year, he's actually pitching really well at home, posting a 3.54 ERA in Colorado, while his numbers balloon to a 5.61 ERA in his 10 road starts. Sure, maybe he ends up being highly successful at home for St. Louis, but I just really do not see the upside in going after Gomber here.

dependableAt the end of the day, the Cardinals need to target upside with this rotation upgrade at the deadline. They already have one front-end starter in Gray, and now they need a second. They have names like Gibson, Lynn, and Mikolas who are depenable veterans (more so in the case of Gibson) who can give them innings and starts down the stretch. They have immediate depth options in Pallante and Matthew Liberatore, as well as the Triple-A arms. They also seem to expect Matz to be back in the near future as well.

If the Cardinals want to add another depth arm, that's fine, but it cannot be the lone starting pitching upgrade they make. If they do try to sell fans on that, their chances of making it to October get a lot more difficult and their ceiling once they get there is very low.

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