5 paths for the Cardinals to acquire their ace (and when to pivot from each)

The St. Louis Cardinals' first two offseason moves should narrow their focus onto the top-end of the pitching market. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson were brought in to provide the Cardinals with "reliable" innings over the course of a 162-game season, but they still lack the talent at the top of their rotation that is needed to make real noise in October.

Between now and the Winter Meetings, which occur December 4th-7th in Nashville, the Cardinals need to develop a game plan for how they are going to go about getting their ace for 2024. I strongly believe they still need to acquire two top-end arms, but the more likely scenario is they acquire one and then focus on filling out their bullpen.

The reason I same game plan here is because the Cardinals cannot afford to go into the Winter Meetings, and frankly, the rest of the offseason, with only one plan in mind. It's emparative that the club prepares itself for every possible situation, and is able to pivot between the top arms available on the market in order to secure one for 2024.

Obviously, there are some options that would be better than others, but the Cardinals cannot bank on "Plan A" working and not have any backup options in case it fails. To play a bit of spoiler here, if "Plan A" is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they need to go all-in on him and do everything in their power to acquire him. But, with that being said, they could outbid the market on him, and Yamamoto could still choose to play elsewhere, or a few other things could happen that I'll point out soon.

What I have aimed to do is develop different plans for the Cardinals' to acquire their front-line starter, and also identified scenarios for when they may need to "pivot' to Plan B or Plan C. Now, before you go bonkers about them getting their Plan B or Plan C option, almost all of these scenarios involve them going after front-line starter, but the routes to get them and talent level have helped me order these plans. Also, these are plans I think the Cardinals themselves are weighing.

As frustrating as the Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signings were, I think most of us can agree the Cardinals do not think they can sell us on this rotation without at least one top-end starter being acquired. Reporting seems to indicate they know that as well.

So, with all of that being said, here are 5 paths I have laid out for the Cardinals to go out and acquire their ace this winter, and how to decide when they may need to "turn their attention elsewhere".

Plan A: Try to win the Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes

When to pivot:

1. Yamamoto signs elsewhere or it becomes clear the Cardinals are out of the running.
2. Potential trade targets are close to being moved.

Plan A has to be Yoshinobu Yamamoto at this point. While I like other options on this list, Yamamoto is the one name that can single-handedly change a lot of our opinions about this offseason, raise the Cardinals' ceiling for 2024, and help this team for years to come, all at the same time.

I detailed various reasons why I am becoming more optimistic about Yamamoto signing with St. Louis recently on the site. If you are not familiar with all of the things the Cardinals have done as an organization to position themselves for this sweepstakes, I'd highly recommend reading my write-up or looking into it yourself. While it remains to be seen if the Cardinals will truly pony up the kind of offer needed to secure Yamamoto, it's clear they've been doing a lot of work to make it a real possibility. Here is a link to an interview I did with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat on the Noot News Podcast, as he detailed the Cardinals' work on Yamamoto as well.

Signing Yamamoto would give the Cardinals a true ace, and potentially one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, who also is just 25 years old. That would be a franchise-altering move, requiring them to give out a contract at or above $200 million in the process.

For as much as I love the idea of Yamamoto, they still will lack the overall talent at the top of the rotation truly needed to be considered a favorite in the National League. Yamamoto is clearly a number one-level pitcher, but you cannot sell anyone on Miles Mikolas or Steven Matz as the number two starter.

I do think there are paths for the Cardinals to acquire two top starters this offseason, but signing Yamamoto would narrow that second name down to a cost-controlled arm. They could still pull off a deal for someone like Dylan Cease or Logan Gilbert to pair with Yamamoto, but signing him would certainly take them out of the market for any other free-agent starters or even a Tyler Glasnow trade due to the money.

Before I dive into the "pivot points", I want to remind everyone that the Cardinals are going to be exploring multiple options at once regardless. Even if Yamamoto is Plan A, they have to be working on Plan B, C, etc. at the time time, as the market is going to continue moving, even if the Cardinals would prefer to focus on Yamamoto.

Let's touch on the second pivot point first in light of that. If the Cardinals are in on Yamamoto but are still waiting for him to make a decision, and the trade market for one of the other top starters they acquire begins to heat up, the Cardinals will likely need to pivot to acquire one of those guys if they can get a deal in place. Why? Well, the only thing more frustrating than missing on Yamamoto would be to miss on Yamamoto and also miss on all of the other options they could acquire. The Cardinals cannot afford to come up empty-handed.

The other reason to pivot would be the obvious one, that Yamamoto has made it clear he will be signing elsewhere. Sure, the Cardinals could try and convince him otherwise, but at that point, they really need to get serious about one of the other top options available, rather than striking out on Yamamoto and beginning to panic.

Plan C: Trade for Dylan Cease

When to pivot:

1. The White Sox decide to hold onto Cease or deal him elsewhere.
2. The White Sox's asking price goes well beyond what we discussed here.

The idea of a team settling for their "Plan C" sounds like a bad outcome, but if the Cardinals are truly invested in the top of the market, a Dylan Cease is a great fallback option here.

In a lot of ways, Cease offers the Cardinals things the first two names on this list could not, namely being cost-controlled for the next two seasons. Yamamoto will likely require an annual value north of $30 million a year, while Glasnow is under contract for just 2024 at $25 million. Not exactly cheap options when it comes to salary. Well, Cease would be under contract for a projected arbitration number of just below $9 million in 2023, then a slight pay raise in 2025 as well.

Because of that though, the Cardinals would have to pony up more in terms of trade value to acquire Cease. While the biggest name I could see happening in a deal for Glasnow would be Tommy Edman (although it would more likely be an Alec Burleson or Dylan Carlson plus a little bit more), the White Sox would likely demand one of Gorman or Donovan, plus a top prospect, and potentially more to secure Cease's services. I put together different versions of this trade on the site recently if you want to get a better idea of what we'd be talking about.

If the Cardinals could somehow pull this deal off by sending Edman, prospects, and even some of those depth names like Burleson or Carlson, then I'd be all-in on making a Cease deal happen. I'd also be very interested in a deal just involving prospects if the White Sox would be interested. But my assumption is that Chicago will want one of those prized young bats in return, which is why I think this is more of Plan C for the Cardinals as well.

Now, Cease was a Cy Young candidate in 2022 and his stuff has not diminished at all. He eats a ton of innings, strikes a lot of guys out, and would profile well as the Cardinals' ace for 2024 and 2025. Like Glasnow, the Cardinals can work on an extension for Cease as well, hopefully locking in their top starter for years to come while they continue to develop pitching in-house. Even if they had to give up a Tink Hence in the deal, they'd still have guys like Tekoah Roby, Cooper Hjerpe, and Gordon Graceffo would could contribute in the future.

The Cardinals would only need to pivot here if Cease is dealt to another team, the White Sox decide to hold onto him for the beginning of 2024, or if their asking price is beyond what we've discussed here. Even if I don't want to give up one of the young bats, a top prospect, and more to get Cease, I understand why the White Sox want that. But if they begin to ask for Gorman and Donovan, or one of those guys plus two top prospects and more, or any other outrageous requests, the Cardinals will need to pivot to Plan D.

Plan D: Trade for Logan Gilbert

When to pivot:

1. The Mariners decide to hold onto Gilbert
2. Asking price takes two or more of the Cardinals' best young position players

There are only two plans left, and honestly, this is one that would be hard to stomach, but probably not as difficult to stomach as the next option the Cardinals have.

Logan Gilbert is one of the most valuable trade assets in baseball. He's a workhorse starter who already profiles as a really good number three or low-end number two in this league, with the potential to be even more than that. He just entered arbitration for the first time this year and is under team control through the 2027 season, meaning the Cardinals won't have to give him a huge contract for a while.

The Mariners know this well and would love to have that luxury in their own rotation for a long time. The only reason they'd entertain trading Gilbert would be to give their lineup a massive upgrade. I think the starting point for any Gilbert deal on the Mariners' side would be Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, or Nolan Gorman.

The first two names are for sure off the table, so the Cardinals would need to construct a deal around Gorman to get the Mariners' interest. That would be Gorman and Donovan for Gilbert, that could be Gorman, Burleson, and a top prospect or two, or it could be some other super expensive package. I really do not see the Mariners moving off of Gilbert unless they get a massive haul.

If I'm being honest, I wouldn't do this deal. I actually prefer the last resort option that we'll get to next over this. Part of the reason that Gilbert would be so expensive to acquire is all of the control he has remaining. Unless the Cardinals plan on signing another starter on top of trading for him, I don't think it makes sense to weaken the lineup as much as they would need to in order to bring him in.

Gilbert is not an ace yet. He very well could be in 2024, but Cease, Glasnow, and Yamamoto are all better talents right now. Frankly, I'd expect Sonny Gray and Jordan Montgomery to put up the same production as Gilbert for 2024. So why am I giving up all of that value to acquire him?

Some may say turn the attention onto Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller instead, but the Cardinals already got their back-of-the-rotation options in Lynn and Gibson. They need a front-line starter now.

If the Cardinals can pull this deal off with a package that takes something like Gorman or Donovan and a few top prospects or depth pieces, then sure, it makes sense. But if the Mariners want more than that or decide to hold onto Gilbert, then it's time for Plan E (the last resort).

Plan E (or last resort): Sign the best starter left on the market

When to pivot:

1. There are no more pivots left. The Cardinals are out of options and have to get a deal done.

If the Cardinals strike out on Yamamoto, Glasnow, Cease, and Gilbert, then they have to sign someone like Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, or Jordan Montgomery.

Snell would be the best option available here, but I have my own concerns about how his contract will age over time. But if all of the other top-end options are gone, the Cardinals need to be aggressive for Snell. The concern about innings can be mitigated by the innings eaters the Cardinals' have, so it would be worth taking a gamble on the top-end stuff he has.

I'm a huge Gray fan, but with how the Cardinals decided to address their other two starting pitching options, he would be an extremely underwhelming number-one starter for this rotation. Montgomery was excellent in 2023, but bringing him back as the ace would make their 2024 rotation look eerily similar to the group they had last year, and that did not work out well at all.

If this is the plan the Cardinals land on, they will get an overall offseason grade of a C- if they grabbed Snell, D if they sign Gray or Montgomery, and a flat-out F if it's anyone worse than that.

There is no more patience left for this organization, and they've backed themselves into a corner in their pursuit of pitching. I do believe they are prioritizing the first four names on this list, and I'd bet they end up with one of Yamamoto, Glasnow, Cease, or Gilbert as their other starting pitcher acquisition, but there's also a real possibility they miss out on all four even if they are aggressive in their pursuit. Yamamoto could choose to sign elsewhere even if the best offer is from the Cardinals, and the Rays, White Sox, and Mariners could trade their guys elsewhere or ask for far too much from St. Louis.

That's not an excuse for the Cardinals. At this point, if they cannot pull it off, they have no one to blame but themselves, even if each individual miss from those four starters "makes sense". This is the price the Cardinals have to pay for failing to position their rotation for success up until this point.

Let's hope the Cardinals are truly aggressive and are able to pull off one of these first four moves. Honestly, I think it will be chaotic if they do not, and I for one do not want to live through another disaster season.