5 important things we've learned about the Cardinals at the season's 30% mark

Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado cannot carry the Cardinals anymore

I personally hope we can come back to this observation at the end of June and say we were dead wrong, but so far, it looks like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are past the days where they can carry not just an offense, but an entire team, to success in the regular season.

Back in 2022, both Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado finished top 3 in MVP voting with their elite bats and top-end defense at the corner infield spots. They were one of the best duos in all of baseball, and they were the key cogs for a team that won the National League Central. Now, neither of them is anywhere close to being an All-Star-level contributor.

The signs of decline for both aging stars were there in 2023. Paul Goldschmidt still finished the year with solid numbers, his power had fallen off significantly in the second half and he just was not the same guy at the end of the season as he was earlier in the year.

Nolan Arenado saw a similar drop-off. He was an All-Star in the first half but had a dreadful second half that many (including myself) attributed to his back injury, leading to his worst year at the plate outside of the 2020 pandemic season. Arenado has also seemingly lost his power, although he's been able to hit for average in a way that Goldschmidt has been unable to this year.

I'm writing this piece before the start of the Cubs series on Friday, May 24th, and to this point, Goldschmidt and Arenado have combined for just 7 home runs this year. Goldschmidt's OPS sits below .600. Both of them have slugging percentages lower than .400. Things are very troublesome when it comes to the Cardinals' stars, as their performance comes nowhere near the title of star at this point.

While I would not be shocked to see either or both of them turn things around and produce 15%-20% above league average at the plate from here on out, the fact that it is the end of May and neither guy has turned it on is a major red flag. Even if the pair can turn things around, it is unlikely either of them can help carry a team anymore. They need the Cardinals' other bats to rise to the occasion.

The rotation is improved but is still a concern

Last year, the Cardinals' rotation put the club in a hole early and often. By the end of May, it was clear the Cardinals were going to be unable to overcome this flawed group, and it became priority number one for John Mozeliak and the Cardinals front office heading into 2024.

So far this year, the Cardinals ranked 20th in quality starts, 20th in FIP, and 21st in ERA. It has been improvement, and when the offense is producing it is good enough to compete for the playoffs, but there are still concerns that need to be addressed at some point this summer.

Sonny Gray has been the ace the Cardinals hoped he would be. His 2.87 ERA in his 8 starts thus far has given fans confidence every time Gray gets on the rubber. While Jordan Montgomery had a hot stretch in June and July before being dealt, Gray can be that steady, reliable ace all year long.

Free-agent additions Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn have outperformed expectations after an offseason filled with frustration over their signings. Gibson has a 3.81 ERA on the year and has covered at least six innings every time he has taken the ball until a rain delay ruined his last start where he had shut out the Orioles through four innings of work.

Lynn has had his fair share of starts cut short by rain as well, but his 3.68 ERA has helped keep opponents in check and provide the Cardinals with more stability to their rotation than they had last year.

That's the biggest difference this year - stability. Outside of Montgomery once he got into a groove, every other starter on the Cardinals could not be relied upon every fifth. All of them struggled with performance, and some struggled with injuries as well. Now the Cardinals feel good about three of their guys, which is an improvement.

Miles Mikolas and that fifth-starter spot have been a different story though. Mikolas' struggles from 2023 have continued this season and it is unclear if he'll be able to stabilize that production at any point. The even bigger issue is their lack of a fifth starter right now. Steven Matz is once again on the injured list, Zack Thompson and Andre Pallante are still stretching out in Memphis, and the Cardinals' best pitching prospects are not ready to go. This has forced Matthew Liberatore, one of their better relievers this year, to try and cover innings in the rotation.

Have the Cardinals improved their rotation? Yes. But they need to add more from outside the organization or see a few young arms rise to the occasion in order to stay in the race through September. They really need a second starter to pair with Gray as well if they are going to have any chance of winning games in October.

The offense is better than they showed during the first six weeks, but their ceiling may not be as high as we thought

The Cardinals' offense ranked among the bottom three teams in baseball for the first six weeks of the season. Going into the year, many of us believed they'd have a top-10 offense. How on earth can there be such a stark difference between expectations and performance?

That's been the million-dollar question this season, and it looked like it may cost people their jobs within the organization before their recent run of form. It wasn't just regression from Goldschmidt and Arenado, pretty much everyone not named Willson Contreras was in a slump over the first six weeks of the season. It made no sense with the amount of talent they had, and yet, it was happening, and for far too long.

Now guys like Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, and Ivan Herrera are leading the charge, Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Gorman are heating up, and it just goes to show the depth this lineup was supposed to have this year. As of late, they've been producing like a top-10 offense, but what is their ceiling now? If Goldschmidt and Arenado are who they are now, can this offense live up to expectations? Can their young bats pick up the slack for the remainder of the season? Will Willson Contreras continue his run of form when he returns from injury?

We won't know the answers to those questions for a while. But here's what we do know - this offense is better than it showed at the beginning of the year.

The Cardinals do not have one of the worst offenses in baseball, and you can still see a path to being a top offense if some more rebounds happen or the young guys continue to progress, but we at least know what they did for all of April and the beginning of May is not their DNA.

If the Cardinals end up being more of a middle-of-the-pack offense though, what is this team's ceiling? They have the formula to make the playoffs if their offense is producing at a high level, but if it cannot do this all season long, it is going to be a really tough road to clawing their back and grabbing a postseason spot.

Luckily for St. Louis, a recent rule change makes that chase a lot easier.

The addition of the third Wild Card allows the Cardinals plenty of time to figure things out

Some people are already looking at the addition of the third Wild Card as hurting the game of baseball, and while I'm not fully there yet, I can see why.

Even with how awful the Cardinals have been this year, they are just two games out of the third Wild Card before their first game of the Cubs series. The two teams ahead of them in the Wild Card standings right now, the Giants and the Diamondbacks, are both below .500 as well. In fact, even the Reds, who are 20-30, are just 5.5 games back from securing that spot.

This is crazy! If this was before 2012, when MLB added the second Wild Card, the Cardinals would be 6.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves for that first Wild Card spot. Now, the National League has been pretty top-heavy this year, which is part of the issue, but we saw last season the bar got lowered significantly to enter the playoffs, and it's allowing teams like the Cardinals to make a push, even if some do not believe they should.

Now, this entire conversation can change in a matter of weeks if the Padres (who hold the third Wild Card) or any of the teams behind them catch fire and create a gap in the race. But honestly, teams have now started to build their rosters knowing they can sneak in with a low 80s win team. Teams who feel like they can make a run at the deadline may add enough talent to separate themselves, but there is a good chance we have a congested race at least until the middle or end of August.

What does this mean for the Cardinals? They have time. As long as the National League continues to not take a firm hold of that third Wild Card, the Cardinals are within striking distance of a playoff spot. Frankly, they are only 5 games back of the division right now as well. With 70% of the season still remaining, this club has time to figure things out.

The question remains, will they? I can't answer that question for you today, but I feel pretty confident in those five defining characteristics of the Cardinals so far this season.