5 difficult roster decisions the St. Louis Cardinals must address ASAP
The struggling St. Louis Cardinals face some difficult roster decisions.
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This no longer needs to be said, but the 2023 St. Louis Cardinals are the biggest shock in Major League Baseball this year, and not in a good way.
On paper, this club is filled to the brim with top-shelf talent, but for some reason, all of the superstars just can't seem to line up and win ballgames together. This team has been living, breathing proof that you can have all the talent in the world but if you can't play together, you're done for.
At 29-43, the record is much scarier looking than it might actually be; the reason being, this win-loss record only has the Cardinals at 8.5 GB of the top spot in the National League Central. The club is lucky because while they're in one of the most disappointing cold streaks in recent memory, every other team in the division is as well. There's a lot to be said about the fact that the division-leading Brewers are only three games above .500 this year.
So the division still feels winnable. We all know what this team is capable of, and now that some top prospects are beginning to make their way to the big leagues, there's plenty of reason to believe that we have yet to see where all of this potential will take the Cardinals. Hang in there, Cards fans, this is just not a team that can stay in the cellar forever.
From moving players' positions to their spots in the lineup ,to coaching staff changes and pitching roles, there are a ton of different avenues this Cardinals' front office could go in the coming weeks or even days. There are quite a few roster decisions that are going to need to be addressed in short order.
Here are 5 of the biggest roster decisions the St. Louis Cardinals must address ASAP.
No. 1: Does Tommy Edman stay in center field?
Injuries to both Tyler O'Neill and Lars Nootbaar suddenly left the Cardinals with little to no depth in the outfield. Dylan Carlson and maybe minor league signee Oscar Mercado were the only two players with any sort of center field experience, but the Cards elected to go a different route instead.
For the past few weeks, utilityman extraordinaire Tommy Edman has actually been the go-to option out there. Throughout his five-year career, the switch-hitter has played three of the four infield spots and both outfield corners, but center was a whole new animal for him. Naturally, the always-slick-fielding Edman has taken to the position as if he's been playing there his whole life.
In a total of 16 games, the 28-year-old has yet to commit an error in 54 total attempts and over 136 innings. In that time, he's managed to accrue 2 Outs Above Average (per Statcast) and 2 Defensive Runs Saved. To just pick up a new position like this and run away with it is not something you see every day, especially not when the position is center field - one of the hardest to play on the diamond.
So that leaves the question for the Cardinals, what happens to Edman's role out there now that Nootbaar has returned from the Injured List?
The easiest answer is to take Edman and return him to his role as a player who can bounce around all over the place while predominantly calling the middle infield his home. But it may not be that simple. With uber-prospect Jordan Walker in left field, Dylan Carlson in right field, Paul DeJong at shortstop, and Brendan Donovan at second, where does someone like Edman go?
With Nolan Gorman struggling as the team's everyday designated hitter and DeJong's highly suspect track record, there does seem to be an avenue to playing time for everyone here. Perhaps Walker could begin to get some time as the DH, which would open up a spot in left field for either Nootbaar or Edman? Or even better, moving DeJong to a bench role where he can play second, third, or short to fill in for starters may be an option as well.
In Monday's lineup, Carlson was moved to the bench, Walker started at DH, Edman remained in center field, and the corner outfield was handled by Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar. Time will tell if that remains the case.
No. 2: Should Jordan Walker already make a full-time move to designated hitter?
This was just mentioned in the previous slide, but it's something that's worth discussing because Walker has not been a natural fit in the corner outfield like everyone had hoped he'd be.
To kick off the season and his big league career, Walker has spent all of his time in the outfield, making 27 appearances in right field and 10 in left. To some, the fact that he has committed only one error in just under 300 innings may be encouraging, but to others, there are quite a few underlying statistics that tell you that he is actually one of the worst defenders in the majors out in the grass.
Walker's Statcast page is ever-evolving, especially as he begins to earn more plate appearances and time in the big leagues. His arm strength is great, his max exit velocity at the plate is great and his sprint speed is even great. What isn't so great, is his outfielder jump rate and his Outs Above Average. For jump, he ranks in the ninth percentile in the league. In OAA, he is in the second percentile, which means 98 percent of outfielders around the game are playing their positions better than he is.
In right field, his total OAA sits at -3, while in left field he's already at -4 after just 10 games out there. As far as Defensive Runs Saved goes, he is also at -10 on the year. The Cardinals should act swiftly and move one of their better hitters into a spot where can focus on ... well, hitting.
With the aforementioned struggles of Nolan Gorman in full swing, Walker seems like the perfect fit to slot into the DH role and take a break from the field. In 35 total games, he has six doubles and six home runs with 14 runs scored, 19 driven in, an average of .296, and an OPS+ of 131. Through and through, the man knows how to swing a bat.
With the impending return of Nootbaar, there are going to be some musical chairs being played around the Cardinals' starting lineup. One of the moving parts needs to be Walker being moved to designated hitter so he can continue to thrive at the plate. Who knows how many games his suspect defense has already cost the team.
No. 3: Will the Cardinals shake up the middle of their batting order?
Gosh, let's hope so.
A typical lineup for the Cardinals lately has looked something like this:
- 1. 2B Brendan Donovan
- 2. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
- 3. 3B Nolan Arenado
- 4. C Willson Contreras
- 5. LF Jordan Walker
- 6. DH Nolan Gorman
- 7. RF Dylan Carlson
- 8. SS Paul DeJong
- 9. CF Tommy Edman
On Monday against the Nationals, we finally saw this order shake up in a real way.
1. LF Brendan Donovan
2. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
3. RF Lars Nootbaar
4. 3B Nolan Arenado
5. C Willson Contreras
6. DH Jordan Walker
7. 2B Nolan Gorman
8. SS Paul DeJong
9. CF Tommy Edman
In most of these spots, you know exactly what you're getting from the player. Especially in the one-through-three-hole hitters, there's never going to be a question about their offensive outputs. However, once you get to the fourth and sixth spots in the lineup, things begin to get a little bit more questionable.
This ridiculing falls primarily on catcher Willson Contreras and designated hitter Nolan Gorman. Neither of these two players have been carrying their weight offensively, which could mean that a shakeup in their spots in the lineup could be coming.
Contreras, 31, has had some well-documented struggles this season, both at the plate and behind it. His .201 average and 79 OPS+ combine to make him one of the worst everyday starters in the league and would easily be the lowest offensive outputs of his eight-year big league career. Moving him down in the order to take some of the pressures of hitting cleanup off of his shoulders may be the fix, at least temporarily.
In Gorman, the Cardinals have a young, promising player who has been hitting well as a whole, but perhaps has been given a bit too long of a leash. On the season, he has 15 home runs and 46 RBI in just 66 games, but his strikeout rate is still over 30 percent and he has experienced one heck of an offensive dropoff since starting the year strong. In the month of June alone, he has 27 strikeouts in 15 games alongside an average of .115 and an OPS of .424. Neither of these numbers are going to cut it, so he could benefit from something different than Contreras could.
For Gorman, either a demotion or a temporary benching feels like the way to go here. As previously mentioned, Jordan Walker is more than ready to make a move to DH, so this one feels almost too obvious at this point.
No. 4: Should Jordan Hicks become the permanent closer?
Man, oh man, were we wrong about Jordan Hicks to kick off the 2023 campaign. The once-promising reliever has been riddled by a multitude of injuries over the past handful of years and once he began to struggle at the beginning of the year, we were ready to throw the towel in on him.
However, he has turned things around in a big way for this Cardinals team and appears to be one of the top players in line to earn some additional save opportunities. After a rough month of April, he allowed just three earned runs in all of May, all of which came in the same game against the Tigers on the 5th of the month. In June, he has looked sharp as well, this time allowing three earned runs across two games, but holding the opposition scoreless in each of the other six outings he's made.
Hicks has been a Statcast darling, too, which is good news for the Cardinals. He ranks at or near the top of the league in a whole slew of pitching categories, which is exactly what we were hoping to see from him a few years back when he was a budding star.
STAT | PERCENTILE |
---|---|
AVG Exit Velocity | 96th |
HardHit% | 80th |
xERA | 69th |
xBA | 87th |
xSLG | 96th |
Barrel % | 87th |
K% | 96th |
Whiff % | 90th |
Fastball Velocity | 100th |
If that doesn't bring a tear to your eye, I don't know what will.
Hicks has been money for this team and is one of the very best players on the roster right now. Across 29 outings this year, he has a 4.15 ERA, 3.34 FIP, and 105 ERA+. These numbers are a bit skewed by the poor start he had in the month of April, but they're trending in the right direction and seem to be destined to continue to do so. He is also not a stranger to save situations, as he racked up 14 of them as recently as 2019.
No. 5: Will the Cardinals be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?
This is the million-dollar question, and one that virtually nobody has the answer to right now.
A quick trip through Cardinals' Twitter will tell you that pretty much every fan of the team is ready for a complete teardown and reassembly of the team. There are countless people out there (with no ability to make any actual moves for the team, thank goodness) who are ready to ship out anything with a pulse.
We're inclined to say that these comments should be placed on pause right now. Sure, things have not been pretty to begin the year, but all hope is absolutely not gone. As mentioned earlier, the 29-43 record is scary and may feel like too big of an obstacle to overcome, but this National League Central division is extremely winnable, even for the last-place Cardinals.
At just 8.5 GB of the first-place Milwaukee Brewers, the Cardinals are truly one hot streak away from clawing their way back into this thing. Even if the division doesn't end up going their way, the Wild Card spots are always up for grabs as well.
So no, the Cardinals likely will not be sellers at this year's trade deadline. Throwing in the towel and giving up on the year already feels way too premature.
Instead, could there be a few players that the club targets to bring aboard via trade? Absolutely. If it's a power bat they seek, Jorge Soler from the Marlins could be available. Top-of-the-rotation starter? How about one of Lucas Giolito or Shane Bieber from a pair of AL Central clubs? There are quite a few targets out there that the Cardinals could easily bring aboard thanks to their stacked farm system and big league-ready talent.
Don't give up just yet, Cardinals fans. It ain't over 'til it's over. There's just no way a team that has this much potential and talent can fall flat on their face, so give it time and we'll be saying, "Can you believe we thought the Cardinals were headed for a rebuild this year?" before you know it.