5 changes the Cardinals need to make in the second half

Cornerstone production

For the last few years, the Cardinals have been able to trot out two of the greatest corner infielders of this generation in Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. The two were able to combine forces and lead the team in 2022, and they finished 3rd and 1st, respectively, in MVP voting that year. It's rare to have two future Hall of Fame candidates on the roster at the same time, and St. Louis has been lucky to have both together since 2021.

The production out of these two superstars has been regrettably lackluster this year. Nolan Arenado, typically known for his power and defense, is slugging just .378, and he's a neutral defender according to Outs Above Average (OAA) and a negative defender according to Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Arenado's 98 wRC+ pegs him as a player who is hitting 2% worse than the average player.

Paul Goldschmidt is striking out nearly 30% of the time and is batting just .230. His 90 wRC+ places him 12% below a league-average hitter. Goldy has 4 Gold Gloves to his name, but he's accumulated just 1 DRS and he sits at -3 OAA on the year. As a duo, Goldy and Arenado are slashing .242/.296/.370 on the year. Those are not figures that scream "middle-of-the-order bats" to me.

In order for the Cardinals to separate themselves from the rest of the teams fighting for the National League Wild Card, these two must begin to approach their former selves. MVP seasons are long gone for both Nado and Goldy, but they can still provide sufficient value with their leadership and track record.

Meatballs

I wrote in great detail about the Cardinals' issues with meatballs a few weeks back, and very little has improved in this department for the team. Essentially, a "meatball" is a pitch that is easy to hit and often comes right down the middle of the plate. It's not too fast, not too slow, it doesn't have much movement, and it's an easy pitch to hit.

The Cardinals have seen the greatest percentage of meatballs this year with an 8.3% rate. That's great! The team is seeing easy pitches to hit. The offense should capitalize on those, right?

Wrong. The Cardinals sit 29th overall in meatball swing percentage. Cardinals hitters are swinging at meatballs only 73.6% of the time. This rate hasn't changed throughout the month of June. They're seeing the greatest percentage of meatballs in baseball, but they're practically swinging at them the least often. That's not an ideal combination.

Brendan Donovan is seeing meatballs at a 9.6% clip, but he's swinging at them just 64.2% of the time. Paul Goldschmidt is seeing meatballs 9.1% of the time, and he's swinging at them only 70.1% of the time. These two hitters should be focal points of the offense, but they aren't maximizing these opportunities.

The pitching side of things has improved since I last wrote. Cardinal pitchers are throwing meatballs 7.7% of the time, the 10th-most frequent rate in the league. Hitters are swinging at them 77.4% of the time. Ironically, Sonny Gray is throwing meatballs at the highest rate (8.6% of the time) on the team. Kyle Gibson has the lowest meatball rate in all of baseball.

The Cardinal hitters should capitalize on these easy-to-hit pitches more often. In order to boost the offense, the players should take advantage of meatballs to do some damage to opposing pitchers.

Run Differential

A team's run differential isn't an all-encompassing statistic. It is a part of the larger puzzle that is a team's output. However, it is somewhat predictive of a team's success in games. After all, the name of the game is to score more than your opponent. A positive run differential would logically lead to a good record.

Prior to games on June 29th, the Cardinals had a -37 run differential, 23rd in the league. Teams such as the Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, and Pittsburgh Pirates, all teams behind the Cardinals in the Wild Card race, have better-run differentials. As a team, they've scored 322 runs and allowed 358 runs.

A team's Pythagorean Record takes into account run differential, so it is sometimes more representative of the team's actual abilities and output for the year. The Cardinals' actual record sits at 42-39, but their Pythagorean Record is a measly 36-45. That expected record is tied with the Pittsburgh Pirates for the worst in the division. The Cardinals wouldn't be sniffing the playoffs based on their run differential.

For as obvious as this statement may be, the Cardinals need to score more runs and limit their opponents more often. The Cardinals are averaging only 3.98 runs per game, and they're giving up nearly 4.43 runs per game. That discrepancy isn't a recipe for success. Both of those figures put the team in the bottom third of the league; not one side of the team is necessarily to blame. However, both the pitchers and hitters must step it up if the team hopes to build a gap in the Wild Card race.

Runners in scoring position

This has been an issue all year. The Cardinal hitters have failed to capitalize with runners in scoring position. Period.

Similar to meatballs, having runners in scoring position presents a prime opportunity to score runs. Runners being on second and/or third base puts pressure on the defense and pitcher. In many cases this year, the Cardinals have had runners in scoring position with no one out and have failed to take advantage of this opportunity.

The Cardinals rank 27th in all of baseball in batting average (.222), 29th in OPS (.635), and 28th in BABIP (.259) with runners in scoring position. Typically, hitters perform better in these situations due to the pressure on the opponent, but the Cardinals are actually hitting worse with runners close to scoring.

While there are several parts to a team's negative run differential, not scoring is foremost. Scoring when runners are as close as possible to home plate is vital, and the Cardinals have failed to do that. The Cardinals have left 7.09 runners on base per game, the 5th-worst in the league. A month ago, the Cardinals were one of the worst teams at striking out while a runner was on third and there were fewer than 2 outs. Even a sacrifice fly would get that runner home, and the hitters couldn't do it.

Taking advantage of easy scoring opportunities will be key for the Cardinals in the second half of the season. The heart of the order must bring home runners like Masyn Winn and Brendan Donovan who reach base often.