5 Cardinals trade packages for Dylan Cease with the White Sox listening to offers

Depending on what reports you read or who you get your St. Louis Cardinals content from, there are varying levels of opinion about how aggressive they are truly going to be this offseason.

Local reporters like Derrick Goold, Katie Woo, and Jeff Jones are going to continuously bring quality reporting to the scene, and keeping an eye on national writers like Ken Rosenthal and Jeff Passan can put the Cardinals' plans in perspective with the rest of baseball.

The overwhelming narrative has been that the Cardinals do intend to make significant moves this offseason, and according to Bob Nightengale, even a rival GM is noticing how aggressive the Cardinals appear to be.

If have been on social media at all the past few days, you would have noticed quite the back and forth about comments John Mozeliak made regarding payroll. The initial feeling amongst fans was frustration as it appeared they would be conservative once again, but Goold's reporting over at the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (subscription required) still seems to indicate that spending is coming.

One of the things that Mozeliak has noted, along with multiple reporters, is that the Cardinals will likely look to the trade market for at least one of their upgrades this winter, which could come in a variety of forms. One of the names Goold has linked to the Cardinals this offseason is Dylan Cease, the White Sox ace who has been rumored to be available this winter.

Well according to Nightengale, the White Sox are listening to offers on Cease, making him one of the most attractive trade chips on the market. Depending on the availability of names like Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow, Logan Gilbert, and Shane Bieber, the competition for Cease could vary, but the Cardinals are in a strong position regardless to make a deal.

One of the major advantages of going after a Cease is that the White Sox are in rebuilding mode, and he's cost-controlled through the 2025 season. The right-hander is set to make $8.8 million in 2024, a significant discount from what the top free-agent arms will make in any given season. Unlike the Mariners, the White Sox are not trying to balance winning now as well, so the Cardinals would likely be able to major on talent prospects in a deal rather than multiple core pieces of their Major League club.

I've got five trade proposals cooked up that I think could get a deal done between the Cardinals and White Sox this offseason. The first two deals listed would be more of where I would lean when it comes to Cease's price tag and what I would give up to acquire him, but all five deals could be something Chicago entertains in any given package.

Trade #1

Cardinals receive: RHP Dylan Cease

White Sox receive: UTL Tommy Edman, RHP Tink Hence, RHP Gordon Graceffo, and OF Joshua Baez

Credit to Onyxdog on Derrick Goold's weekly chat, as he threw out the first three names of this proposal, and I added Baez in based on Goold's response.

Goold seemed to think this was a strong offer, something he thinks the White Sox would want and would also make the Cardinals uncomfortable, which seems to be the land you have to get to in order to get a deal done here.

The White Sox currently have openings at both shortstop and second base, making Edman a perfect fit for their middle infield. He has the same amount of club control left as Cease and could be a long-term answer for them up the middle or a future trade chip for them to utilize.

Tink Hence is the real star of this package though, and would be the tough pill the Cardinals need to swallow to make this happen. Cease's market should be strong, even after a down year, and a prospect like Hence has the power to move the needle here. Hence has so much potential as a starter, but there are still concerns about his durability, how high his ceiling truly is, and whether or not he is a starter or reliever. I'm bullish on Hence as a prospect, but with the grave need the Cardinals have for pitching, I get why they'd cash him in for Cease.

Graceffo had a weird year after breaking out as a prospect in 2022 but still offers middle-of-the-rotation upside long-term. With additions like Tekoah Roby, Sem Robberse, Drew Rom, and Adam Kloffenstien though, the Cardinals may be able to part with both Hence and Graceffo, knowing the risk they are taking but gaining an arm like Cease in the process. Edman, Hence, and Graceffo would offer three really good building blocks for the White Sox's future, along with a guy like Baez who is a raw prospect with a high upside long-term.

From the Cardinals' end, they acquire a front-line starter and do so by only giving up one MLB regular in the process. Edman is a valuable part of their position player core, but clearly falls behind every other regular starter in terms of importance to the team. Masyn Winn is the shortstop of the future and Victor Scott II may be on the fast track to St. Louis in 2024. Edman has a role to play in 2024 if he is still on the team, but he should not get in the way of them acquiring a top-end starter.

Hence and Graceffo are big losses when it comes to the future of this club, but again, the immediate future is in such dire need of help that they have to be willing to take that risk. Cease also presents them with two years of control and they could explore an extension, so that helps mitigate the loss a bit.

Ideally, the Cardinals would be able to talk down Chicago's asking price a bit more, but if this is the price tag they set, it may be one the Cardinals have to pay.

Trade #2

Cardinals receive: RHP Dylan Cease

White Sox receive: RHP Tink Hence, OF Chase Davis, OF/1B Alec Burleson, and RHP Sem Robberse

While the first trade was centered around a fourth-year player and a top prospect, this package is the typical package a rebuilding team would covet, and is again one I would strongly consider if I were the Cardinals.

Hence again headlines the deal here, and as a top-50 prospect in all of baseball, that's quite the starting point. The next biggest piece of the puzzle is the Cardinals' first-round pick from this year's draft, Chase Davis. Davis projects to be a left-handed slugger who could stay in center field but likely ends up in one of the corners instead. He has a very high ceiling as a potential power-hitting outfield bat, but there's also no guarantee he will reach those heights. He is likely two or three years away from St. Louis as well, but would be appealing to Chicago in their rebuild.

Alec Burleson is a guy who is going to generate interest around baseball, as he flew through the minor leagues with his hit tool and has some power that remains untapped in his swing. His first full season was not as promising as the Cardinals had hoped from a production standpoint, but his batted-ball stats are very encouraging.

On top of getting two highly valued prospects, the White Sox would now come away with a promising left-handed bat as well, giving them three valuable pieces long-term for the club. The Cardinals would love to hold onto Burleson long-term, but their position player depth allows them to get creative with whom they hold onto.

Sem Robberse came over to the Cardinals in the Jordan Hicks trade and is currently in Memphis at just 22 years old. He doesn't have a crazy high ceiling as a prospect but could provide the White Sox with a solid rotation arm for years to come or an eventual bullpen piece.

This is a lot of prospect capital to give up, but that is the cost of acquiring top-end starters with control. I think there are a couple of reasons why the Cardinals should be willing to do this though. First, they were sellers at the trade deadline for the first time in a very long time. Because of that, they were able to add Thomas Saggese, Tekoah Roby, Adam Kloffenstein, Drew Rom, Cesar Prieto, Zack Showalter, John King, and Robberse to the organization, rather than parting with prospect capital to upgrade the club. They bolstered their system at the deadline not just for the future, but for trades as well.

The second reason is their prime draft positioning in this upcoming draft. They'll likely have a top-5 pick for the first time since the 1990s, and will instantly add a top-100 prospect in baseball to their organization come next draft. They'll also select highly in every round this year, so even if they lose a second-round pick for signing a starter this offseason, they'll still be positioned to add more talent than they typically get the opportunity to.

Losing prospect capital is hard, but with the Cardinals' goals to win in 2024, it may be a necessary evil. The remainder of the deals will center around valuable young talent already on the Cardinals' big league roster, and although they could go those paths, they seem a bit counterproductive for what St. Louis would want to do in the near future. Count me as team "send prospects and/or Tommy Edman" to the White Sox, but there are other deals that would be on the table.

Trade #3

Cardinals receive: RHP Dylan Cease

White Sox receive: SS Masyn Winn, OF Dylan Carlson, LHP Matthew Liberatore

If I had to rank the five trade packages based on what I would do, this would be the third-best trade in my opinion. I would much rather offer up one of the first two deals than throw Masyn Winn into the conversation, but if he is who the White Sox covet, I think it's still worth having a conversation.

I'm a huge fan of Winn. He's already showing flashes of his defensive upside and speed on the basepaths. His bat was shaky in his brief stint in St. Louis, but even Winn has been quick to acknowledge that he typically takes some time to get used to each level at the plate. If he can continue to develop as a hitter, he's an extremely valuable shortstop for years to come.

Here is the question I would be asking myself if I were the Cardinals: What are the chances that Masyn Winn will be a top-5 shortstop in all of baseball long-term? Or even a top-10 player at the position? It's been a long time since the club has had a long-term solution at shortstop, and if they truly have a top-end shortstop on their hands, I have a lot of pause here. But if they are just hoping he becomes that but are unsure of that ceiling, then he's not untouchable when it comes to getting a guy like Cease.

Again, I'm not quick to move him, and I'd much rather give up a strong package of prospects or something involving Edman instead, but if the White Sox after one of the Cardinals' young middle infielders, I think Winn is the one I would part with first. Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan mean way too much to this club's offense, and Edman is more than adequate to cover shortstop if needed.

Accompanying Winn in this deal are two guys the White Sox can bank on regaining their value in Dylan Carlson and Matthew Liberatore. Carlson is a former top-20 prospect in all of baseball and still has the potential to be a meaningful outfielder in this league. His bat against right-handed pitching needs work, but he destroys left-handed pitching and is a good defensive outfielder. Liberatore is a former top-100 prospect who has struggled to establish himself as a rotation option in his young career. He would be an interesting third piece for the White Sox to consider here.

Hopefully I've been clear, but if I haven't, let me say it again. I don't want to trade Winn and would name a lot of other players I would part with before him. But it's not a trade I'm a hard no on.

Trade #4

Cardinals receive: RHP Dylan Cease

White Sox receive: 2B Nolan Gorman, RHP Michael McGreevy, and C Leonardo Bernal

Here's a deal I'm completely out on, but I'm offering it up as a look at what the White Sox may end up asking for. Even with Cease coming off a down year, he was second in AL Cy Young voting in 2022, so they may be unwilling to move him without a major piece in return.

Nolan Gorman would certainly qualify as that.

The White Sox still need to sell tickets, and getting a ton of prospects or Tommy Edman in return doesn't necessarily do that. Gorman could provide them with a young building block for their future contender, while also giving them someone to watch next season.

The Cardinals cannot trade Gorman. If they would rather trade Gorman to get their pitching than spend the money, that is a massive mistake. The best lineups in baseball need left-handed power in their lineup, and Gorman certainly qualifies as that and is on his way toward being one of the most feared power hitters in our game. Gorman only played in 119 games this year and had an awful month of June, and still hit 27 home runs with 76 RBIs in the process. Did I mention he's just 23 years old and plays second base as well?

The Cardinals cannot give up Gorman. It would be a massive mistake and one they will regret for a long time. So if the White Sox ask for this and won't budge, I'm out.

Here's what scares me though. No one is saying the Cardinals are shopping Gorman. I really do believe they want to keep him and their best young position players for a long time. They would much rather trade Carlson, Burleson, Edman, or Tyler O'Neill. But when reporters talk about who the organization consistently says is not available in deals, Gorman's name doesn't always come up. I don't think that means they want to trade him, but it makes me think they aren't as "unwilling" to as I am.

If the Cardinals give up Gorman in a deal, I would imagine the rest of the package is thinner than the other ones we have looked at. Michael McGreevy has a very low-ceiling as a pitch-to-contact, back-of-the-rotation starter, but is still a helpful piece to have. Leonardo Bernal is a very intriguing catching prospect, but Ivan Herrera's presence makes him expendable here.