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5 Cardinals players who could be the difference between success and failure in 2024
These players could make 2024 a winner for the Cardinals or a complete disaster
The 2023 Cardinals season was a mess for a variety of reasons, one of which was significant underperformance by many key contributors. If the players who underperformed or missed significant time due to injury can bounce back, it might just be the difference between success and failure for the Cardinals. Here are five Cardinals who could be the difference between success and failure in 2024.
Miles Mikolas
In 2023, two-time All-Star Miles Mikolas was expected to headline the Cardinals' rotation of "six starting pitchers." However, Mikolas did not live up to his All-Star numbers in 2022. His ERA spiked from 3.29 to 4.78, and while he underperformed his FIP of 4.27, the 35-year-old showed alarming signs of regression. Whether this was Father Time catching up to Mikolas or simply a bump in the road, Mikolas signed a 2-year extension at the start of Spring Training, so he'll be locked into a rotation spot through the 2026 season.
As currently constructed, Miles Mikolas is set to be the second-best pitcher in the Cardinals' starting rotation behind Sonny Gray, so his return to form in 2024 is critical to the team's success. If Mikolas is able to rebound to an ERA in the low 4's or high 3's, the rotation would be serviceable enough to lead the Cardinals to the Postseason. But, if he's able to return to All-Star form, he'd be an extremely solid option to have as the second starter for a playoff run.
However, if he's unable to rebound and possibly regresses even further, the Cardinals would be in big trouble with their rotation. Other than Sonny Gray, the combined staff of Steven Matz, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn might not be able to lead the Cardinals to the Postseason at all. Unless the Cardinals add another starter this offseason, much of their season hinges on the performance and health of Miles Mikolas.
Steven Matz
The start of 2023 for Steven Matz was absolutely dreadful. After signing a 4 year, $44 million contract with the Cardinals prior to the start of 2022, many Cardinals fans were already ready to cut ties with him following an abysmal 8-0 Memorial Day loss to the Kansas City Royals. Following this start, Matz was relegated to the bullpen. Through an injury-plagued 2022 and a horrific start to 2023, the Matz contract was looking like a disaster.
However, following the move to the bullpen, Matz posted a 2.08 ERA for the remainder of his season. His resurgence provided much-needed optimism for the Cardinals during a season with very little to be optimistic about. Unfortunately, his season was cut short due to a left lat strain. Despite attempts to return to the field, Matz was ultimately shut down for the rest of the season as there was no reason to rush him back during an otherwise lost 2023.
While injury-riddled, Steven Matz's first two seasons in St. Louis have been extremely respectable. He was extremely unlucky in 2022 as his 5.25 ERA didn't match his 3.78 FIP at all. In fact, Matz's 3.76 FIP during his first two seasons in St. Louis indicates his contract might've been a bargain rather than a mistake. If he can keep up the same performance in 2024, he'll be an excellent addition to a rotation full of question marks. However, if he is unable to stay healthy, the Cardinals may yet be scrambling for innings that Matz is unable to fill.
Paul Goldschmidt
Following an MVP campaign in 2022, Paul Goldschmidt saw a significant drop-off in 2023. So much so that he wasn't even named an All-Star. His league-leading 177 OPS+ dropped to a solid but not MVP-caliber 120 OPS+, and he saw a dramatic dip in his power numbers. His ability to crush fastballs, something he'd been well-known to do, became a weakness rather than a strength. At age 36, it's fair to wonder if Goldschmidt's best offensive days are behind him.
However, the Cardinals are counting on the future Hall-of-Fame first baseman to be a key contributor in the lineup for the 2024 season. While talks for an extension will likely be delayed at least until the season starts, the Cardinals have shown no indication that they will be moving on from Goldschmidt at first base anytime soon. If the Cardinals can get some form of MVP Goldschmidt back in 2024, he will make the already strong lineup even more formidable.
While Goldy's second-half struggles were extremely concerning, it's possible he struggled even more as the team's performance worsened. After posting a very respectable 131 OPS+ in the first half, Goldschmidt was barely above league average in the second half, at 108 OPS+. Hopefully, this regression was due to the poor performance of the team and not because of his age.
Goldschmidt has been working on his swing this offseason to regain his ability to hit fastballs at an elite level, and if he can get back on track the Cardinals could find themselves back in playoff contention. However, if age is catching up to the 36-year-old, the Cardinals lineup may be in big trouble in 2024.
Giovanny Gallegos
The warning signs for Giovanny Gallegos' ineffectiveness showed before the regular season started. With Mexico knocking on the door of the World Baseball Classic Championship round, Giovanny Gallegos was set to close out Japan. However, without retiring a single batter, Gallegos allowed two runs and quickly broke the hearts of Mexican fans as Shohei Ohtani and his teammates celebrated at home plate en route to a championship title.
Like his blowup outings with the Cardinals in 2023, Gallegos was extremely hit-or-miss. In outings where he allowed one home run, he almost always allowed a second. When things went wrong, they went very wrong for Giovanny Gallegos in 2023. While the responsibility falls upon manager Oliver Marmol to recognize these faults in his pitching staff, Gallegos can also prevent unnecessary losses by limiting the damage as best he can.
While the Cardinals have made significant bullpen additions in the veteran Andrew Kittredge and the intriguing Nick Robertson, Gallegos can be a stabilizing fixture in the backend of the St. Louis bullpen as he has been for many seasons. Hopefully, the bullpen will be less overworked with the additions of Gray, Lynn, and Gibson being able to routinely give the Cardinals quality starts and Giovanny Gallegos will be able to rebound in 2024.
However, if Gallegos continues to slide and isn't able to regain the consistency he's had for the majority of his Cardinals tenure, the bullpen will lose a much-needed high-leverage arm putting even more pressure on Ryan Helsley, whose availability has always been a question mark. Gallegos' effectiveness could be the difference between a playoff berth and elimination in September.
Masyn Winn
Shortstop is arguably the position with the least depth on the St. Louis Cardinals roster. Other than Masyn Winn, the only other viable Major League shortstop the Cardinals have is Tommy Edman. However, Edman is slated to be the Opening Day starter in center field, and injury concerns have left his availability for Spring Training questionable. With Paul DeJong no longer in St. Louis, and the Cardinals not signing one of the big shortstop free agents in 2021 or 2022, the Cardinals are relying heavily on Winn in 2024.
Winn broke out in a big way last season with Triple-A, as his bat developed much quicker than was expected, but his call-up to the Major Leagues was disappointing, to say the least. In 137 plate appearances, Winn recorded a .467 OPS and a 29 OPS+. Sure, this was a small sample size and nothing to be too concerned about, but if Winn truly isn't Major League ready yet or his bat never fully develops the Cardinals could be in big trouble.
This past weekend at Winter Warm-Up, Winn noted that he wasn't taking the starting shortstop role for granted, and he promised that he would work hard to earn the job at Spring Training. However, if Winn struggles in Spring or can't figure out Major League pitching, moving Edman from center field could leave holes elsewhere. Dylan Carlson, who had an abysmal 2023 season, would have to fill in center field, or Victor Scott II another glove-first prospect who hasn't proven himself offensively yet.
Personally, I'm extremely excited to see Scott in the big leagues, but rushing him could hurt his development especially if he isn't fully ready. However, if Winn can perform as a league average bat, his promising defense will make him one of the top shortstops in the league, lengthening the Cardinals lineup and elevating the team to the next level.